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The uncertainty effect, also known as direct risk aversion, is a phenomenon in economics and psychology in which individuals value a risky prospect (such
Uncertainty_effect
Foundational principle in quantum physics
picture formulates it in a way that generalizes more easily. The effect of Heisenberg uncertainty principle is significant only for motion of microscopic objects
Uncertainty_principle
Statistical measure of the magnitude of a phenomenon
criteria. The standard error of the effect size is of critical importance, as it indicates how much uncertainty is included in the observed measurement
Effect_size
Situations involving imperfect or unknown information
measurable uncertainty, or 'risk' proper, as we shall use the term, is so far different from an unmeasurable one that it is not in effect an uncertainty at all
Uncertainty
Tactic used to influence opinion
Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD), or Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt, and Despair (FUDD), is a manipulative tactic used in sales, media, marketing, public relations
Fear,_uncertainty,_and_doubt
Effect of variables' uncertainties on the uncertainty of a function based on them
In statistics, propagation of uncertainty is the effect of variables' uncertainties on the uncertainty of a function based on them. When the variables
Propagation_of_uncertainty
Cognitive bias about one's own skill
The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias that describes the systematic tendency of people with low ability in a specific area to give overly positive
Dunning–Kruger_effect
Societal concept
cross-cultural psychology, uncertainty avoidance is how cultures differ on the amount of tolerance they have of unpredictability. Uncertainty avoidance is one of
Uncertainty_avoidance
Lack of quantifiable knowledge in economics
measurable uncertainty, or 'risk' proper, as we shall use the term, is so far different from an unmeasurable one that it is not in effect an uncertainty at all"
Knightian_uncertainty
Uncertainty analysis investigates the uncertainty of variables that are used in decision-making problems in which observations and models represent the
Uncertainty_analysis
Factor of lower probability in measurement
re-measured, the effect of this offset would be inherently present in the average of the values. The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement
Measurement_uncertainty
Tendency to base judgments on an irrelevant anchor
they described anchoring as a heuristic used to make estimates under uncertainty. Both numeric and non-numeric anchoring have been reported through research
Anchoring_effect
Form of distribution marketing
difficult for suppliers to predict demand. The resulting uncertainty can contribute to the bullwhip effect. While suppliers can counter this by removing or reducing
Bullwhip_effect
Software bug that seems to change when debugging
the physicist who first introduced the uncertainty principle, and it is a reference to the observer effect, which states that the act of observing a
Heisenbug
Macroeconomics term
In macroeconomics, multiplier uncertainty is lack of perfect knowledge of the multiplier effect of a particular policy action, such as a monetary or fiscal
Multiplier_uncertainty
Cognitive tendency where lack of information affects decision making
had the opposite effect, making them more willing to speed as uncertainty offered hope of avoiding punishment. Clinical uncertainty causes variations
Ambiguity_effect
Fact that observing a situation changes it
In physics, the observer effect is the disturbance of a system by the act of observation. This is often the result of utilizing instruments that, by necessity
Observer_effect_(physics)
Policy uncertainty (also called regime uncertainty) is a class of economic risk where the future path of government policy is uncertain, raising risk
Policy_uncertainty
Atmospheric heat retention
The greenhouse effect occurs when heat-trapping gases in a planet's atmosphere prevent the planet from losing heat to space, raising its surface temperature
Greenhouse_effect
Measure of dependence between two variables
amount of uncertainty in Y, minus the amount of uncertainty in Y which remains after X is known", which is equivalent to "the amount of uncertainty in Y which
Mutual_information
Idea that small causes can have large effects
In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear
Butterfly_effect
Parameter introduced by the Minor Planet Center
greatest effect on the orbital uncertainty. Occasionally, the Minor Planet Center substitutes a letter-code ('D', 'E', 'F') for the uncertainty parameter
Uncertainty_parameter
Kind of cognitive bias
2005, when Stanford linguistics professor Arnold Zwicky wrote about this effect on his blog, that the name "frequency illusion" was coined. The occurrence
Frequency_illusion
Index of articles associated with the same name
substance or treatment Probe effect Schrödinger's cat, a thought experiment concerning quantum superposition Uncertainty principle, a fundamental concept
Observer_effect
Study of uncertainty in the output of a mathematical model or system
uncertainty in the output of a mathematical model or system (numerical or otherwise) can be divided and allocated to different sources of uncertainty
Sensitivity_analysis
Force resulting from the quantisation of a field
In quantum field theory, the Casimir effect (or Casimir force) is a physical force acting on the macroscopic boundaries of a confined space which arises
Casimir_effect
Postpositivist communication theory developed in 1975
The uncertainty reduction theory (URT), also known as initial interaction theory, developed in 1975 by Charles Berger and Richard Calabrese, is a communication
Uncertainty_reduction_theory
tendency to completely disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty. Non-adaptive choice switching: After experiencing a bad outcome with
List_of_cognitive_biases
Branch of applied probability theory
and probability to model how individuals would behave rationally under uncertainty. It differs from the cognitive and behavioral sciences in that it is
Decision_theory
Economic theory
contemporary examples of the lipstick effect, with consumers shifting towards such purchases during periods of economic uncertainty. The report also noted that
Lipstick_effect
How one process influences another
process, state, or object (i.e., an effect) where the cause is at least partly responsible for the effect, and the effect is at least partly dependent on
Causality
Psychological effect
psychological effect when it is done from certainty than from uncertainty. Tversky & Kahneman (1986) illustrated the certainty effect by the following
Certainty_effect
Increasing value with increasing participation
period to attract buyers and reduce their uncertainty. The duration of free time is related to the network effect. The more positive feedback the company
Network_effect
Type of field-effect transistor
metal–oxide–semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET, MOS-FET, MOS FET, or MOS transistor) is a type of field-effect transistor (FET), most commonly
MOSFET
Societal phenomenon
The bandwagon effect is a psychological phenomenon where people adopt certain behaviors, styles, or attitudes simply because others are doing so. More
Bandwagon_effect
Possibility of something bad happening
for Standardization (ISO) 31073 defines risk as: effect of uncertainty on objectives Note 1: An effect is a deviation from the expected. It can be positive
Risk
Statistical measure used in survey research
In survey research, the design effect is a number that shows how well a sample of people may represent a larger group of people for a specific measure
Design_effect
Preference of known risks to unknown risks
In decision theory and economics, ambiguity aversion (also known as uncertainty aversion) is a preference for known risks over unknown risks. An ambiguity-averse
Ambiguity_aversion
Physical constant in quantum mechanics
statements of Werner Heisenberg's uncertainty principle. Given numerous particles prepared in the same state, the uncertainty in their position, Δ x {\displaystyle
Planck_constant
Attempt made by investors to avoid negative financial information
The ostrich effect, also known as the ostrich problem, was originally coined by Dan Galai [he] and Orly Sade. The name comes from the common (but false)
Ostrich_effect
Concept in psychology
a binary lottery than for its worse outcome, a finding coined the uncertainty effect (UE). For example, people are willing to pay an average of $26 for
Risk_aversion_(psychology)
Internet adage
combination of widespread social media coverage, high anxiety, and high uncertainty. In 2020, researchers studied the sensitivity to bullshit and found that
Brandolini's_law
Error in statistical reasoning with groups
in 1972. It is also referred to as Simpson's reversal, the Yule–Simpson effect, the amalgamation paradox, or the reversal paradox. One of the best-known
Simpson's_paradox
Quantum physical phenomenon
Josephson effect is a phenomenon that occurs when two superconductors are placed in proximity, with some barrier or restriction between them. The effect is named
Josephson_effect
there always remains a minimum uncertainty in regard to the uncertainty principle. This relationship sets a minimum uncertainty when measuring position and
Back_action_(quantum)
Random change in the energy inside a volume
of energy in a point in space, as prescribed by Werner Heisenberg's uncertainty principle. They are minute random fluctuations in the values of the fields
Quantum_fluctuation
Hypothesis that human replicas elicit revulsion
mere-exposure effect. By varying the frequency of training items, they were able to demonstrate a dissociation between cognitive uncertainty based on the
Uncanny_valley
Physical constant for the strength of gravity induced by a mass
the significant uncertainty in the measured value of G in terms of other known fundamental constants, a similar level of uncertainty will show up in the
Gravitational_constant
Volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity in leadership
Uncertainty: Denotes the unpredictability of events and issues. C = Complexity: Describes the intertwined forces and issues, making cause-and-effect relationships
VUCA
Statistical method that summarizes and/or integrates data from multiple sources
various studies. By combining these effect sizes the statistical power is improved and can resolve uncertainties or discrepancies found in individual
Meta-analysis
Personal cognitive bias
uncertainty Confidence – Feeling of trust in someone or something Dunning–Kruger effect – Cognitive bias about one's own skill False consensus effect –
Overconfidence_effect
Quantum mechanical phenomenon
findings. In the early days of quantum theory, the term tunnel effect was not used, and the effect was instead referred to as penetration of, or leaking through
Quantum_tunnelling
Supposed 1943 US Navy experiment
the apocryphal stories arose from degaussing experiments which have the effect of making a ship undetectable or 'invisible' to magnetic mines." Another
Philadelphia_Experiment
Measure of the accuracy of probabilistic predictions
and one, the resolution is equal to the uncertainty. The uncertainty term measures the inherent uncertainty in the outcomes of the event. For binary
Brier_score
System used to generate stable voltages, that may be used to define a volt
realization as maintained by Weston cells. The uncertainty of these measurements was limited by the uncertainty of the SI volt realization and the stability
Josephson_voltage_standard
Clock that monitors the resonant frequency of atoms
the microwave interaction region; the largest source of uncertainty in NIST-F1 is the effect of black-body radiation from the warm chamber walls. The
Atomic_clock
Concept in quantum mechanics
research that backs such claims. The uncertainty principle has been frequently confused with the observer effect, evidently even by its originator, Werner
Observer_(quantum_physics)
Potentially hazardous near-Earth asteroid
the June 2024 orbit solution which includes the Yarkovsky effect, the 3-sigma uncertainty region in the 2029 approach distance is about ±3.3 km. The
99942_Apophis
reported difficulty of telling a difference between weekdays and weekends, uncertainty and anxiety about the future, and either time speeding up or slowing
Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on time perception
Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_on_time_perception
Systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, outlined how people rely on mental shortcuts when making judgments under uncertainty. Experiments such
Cognitive_bias
Electromagnetic effect in physics
The quantum Hall effect (or integer quantum Hall effect) is a quantized version of the Hall effect which is observed in two-dimensional electron systems
Quantum_Hall_effect
Tendency to accept the default option
The default effect, a concept within the study of nudge theory, explains the tendency for an agent to generally accept the default option in a strategic
Default_effect
Statute of the Canadian province of British Columbia
subject of political controversy in British Columbia due to the legal uncertainty resulting from its implementation, including potential impacts on governance
Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act (British Columbia)
Declaration_on_the_Rights_of_Indigenous_Peoples_Act_(British_Columbia)
Harmful effect resulting from a medication or other medical intervention
An adverse effect is an undesired harmful effect resulting from a medication or other intervention, such as surgery. An adverse effect may be termed a
Adverse_effect
1970 economics paper by George Akerlof
"The Market for 'Lemons': Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism" is a widely cited seminal paper in the field of economics which explores the concept
The_Market_for_Lemons
Measured time difference as explained by relativity theory
time dilation. When unspecified, "time dilation" usually refers to the effect due to velocity. The dilation compares co-moving clock readings between
Time_dilation
Mathematical analysis technique
Experimental uncertainty analysis is a technique that analyses a derived quantity, based on the uncertainties in the experimentally measured quantities
Experimental uncertainty analysis
Experimental_uncertainty_analysis
Uncertainty in situational awareness
war is the uncertainty in situational awareness experienced by participants in military operations. The term seeks to capture the uncertainty regarding
Fog_of_war
Bias confirming existing attitudes
interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing attitudes. The effect is strongest for desired outcomes, emotionally charged issues and deeply
Confirmation_bias
Series of psychology studies
studying if and how individuals yielded to or defied a majority group and the effect of such influences on beliefs and opinions. Developed in the 1950s, the
Asch_conformity_experiments
Aspect of decision and prospect theories
several studies examining the effect of losses in decision-making, no loss aversion was found under risk and uncertainty. There are several explanations
Loss_aversion
Uncertainty management theory (UMT), developed by Dale Brashers, addresses the concept of uncertainty management. Several theories have been developed
Uncertainty_management_theory
Unrecoverable cost that has been incurred
appearance of a total loss. In practice, there is considerable ambiguity and uncertainty in such cases, and decisions may, in retrospect, appear irrational that
Sunk_cost
Theory of response to surprise events
individual and collective psychological biases that make people blind to uncertainty, and to the significant role of rare events in historical affairs. In
Black_swan_theory
American astrologer and psychic
this date to reporters, at one point even producing a passport to this effect, but she once testified in a deposition that she was born in 1910. An investigation
Jeane_Dixon
Measure of value difference between best possible decision and made decision
Peter C. Fishburn. Regret theory models choice under uncertainty taking into account the effect of anticipated regret. Subsequently, several other authors
Regret_(decision_theory)
Assessment of a measurement process
operators Assessing any measurement interactions Calculating the measurement uncertainty of individual measurement devices and/or measurement systems Common tools
Measurement_system_analysis
Two basic love feelings
particularly if reciprocal liking first suggests that a relationship is likely. Uncertainty is a feature of new or potential relationships, believed to intensify
Passionate and companionate love
Passionate_and_companionate_love
Belief in the connection of unrelated events
control, people turn to magical beliefs when there exists a sense of uncertainty and potential danger, and with little access to logical or scientific
Magical_thinking
Mathematical model for sequential decision making under uncertainty
modeling framework incorporates the understanding of cause and effect, the management of uncertainty and nondeterminism, and the pursuit of explicit goals. The
Markov_decision_process
U.S. Army investigations of psychic phenomena
within the intelligence community. Even though a statistically significant effect has been observed in the laboratory, it remains unclear whether the existence
Stargate Project (U.S. Army unit)
Stargate_Project_(U.S._Army_unit)
Allegedly unexplained human incineration
more liquified fat, in a cyclic process known as the "wick effect" or the "candle effect". According to the Nickell and Fischer investigation, nearby
Spontaneous_human_combustion
Quantifies strength of electromagnetic interaction
second set of measurements confirmed some effect, at the level of a few part per million with a large uncertainty, (2±7)×10−5. Subsequent and more sophisticated
Fine-structure_constant
Theory of effective communication
Anxiety/uncertainty management (AUM) theory explores how individuals manage anxiety and uncertainty when interacting with people from different cultural
Anxiety/uncertainty management
Anxiety/uncertainty_management
Force on a rotating celestial body due to asymmetric thermal radiation
chance of Earth impact in 2068, and the Yarkovsky effect was a significant source of prediction uncertainty. In 2021, a multidisciplinary professional-amateur
Yarkovsky_effect
effects, indirect and semi-direct aerosol effects resulting in a large uncertainty in the radiative forcing due to aerosols. Particulates and soot IPCC
Albrecht_effect
Climatic effect causing a planet's atmosphere to trap heat and prevent cooling
with the uncertainties in calculating the inner edge of the habitable zone, the uncertainty in whether CO2 can drive a moist greenhouse effect is due to
Runaway_greenhouse_effect
Historical high-precision units of measurement
transition frequency of Cs-133". The NIST Reference on Constants, Units, and Uncertainty. NIST. May 2024. Retrieved 18 May 2024. "2022 CODATA Value: conventional
Conventional_electrical_unit
Digit necessary to represent a quantity
contributing 0.8 mm) is likewise considered significant despite its uncertainty. Therefore, this measurement contains four significant figures. Another
Significant_figures
Photographic tone reversal technique
The Sabattier effect, also known as pseudo-solarization (or pseudo-solarisation) is a phenomenon in photography in which the image recorded on a negative
Sabattier_effect
Quantum measurement phenomenon
quantum Zeno effect, a reduction in transitions away from the system's initial state, slowing a system's time evolution. Sometimes this effect is interpreted
Quantum_Zeno_effect
Spatial perceptual illusion
localized with greater uncertainty than stronger taps, result in more pronounced length contraction. Modeling the tau effect that occurs in the perception
Tau_effect
1967 film allegedly containing footage of Bigfoot
others invalidated their claims. Daegling and Schmitt noted problems of uncertainties in the subject and camera positions, camera movement, poor image quality
Patterson–Gimlin_film
Maximum acceptable oral dose of a toxic substance in the US
observable effect level, or NOEL. To account for the fact that humans may be more or less susceptible than the test animal, a 10-fold "uncertainty factor"
Reference_dose
Cognitive bias
"pseudocertainty effect". They concluded that when people make choices at later stages of problems they often do not realize that uncertainty at an earlier
Pseudocertainty_effect
Emissions from unstable atomic nuclei
Value: Avogadro constant". The NIST Reference on Constants, Units, and Uncertainty. NIST. May 2024. Retrieved 18 May 2024. Emery, G. T. (December 1972)
Radioactive_decay
Maintenance of a belief despite new information that firmly contradicts it
attempt to present evidence debunking them, this is known as a backfire effect. There are psychological mechanisms by which backfire effects could potentially
Belief_perseverance
Hexagonal lattice made of carbon atoms
thermal management. Most experimental measurements have posted large uncertainties in the results of thermal conductivity due to the limitations of the
Graphene
showing a sharp slowdown in hiring, which some attributed to policy uncertainty caused by tariffs. Trump dismissed the data as "rigged" and fired the
Tariffs in the second Trump administration
Tariffs_in_the_second_Trump_administration
Attributing events to an improbable conspiracy
feelings of uncertainty, anxiety, or powerlessness result in a reduction in conspiracy beliefs. Other possible strategies to mitigate the effect of conspiracy
Conspiracy_theory
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