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Psychological effect
The certainty effect is the psychological effect resulting from the reduction of probability from certain to probable (Tversky & Kahneman 1986). It is
Certainty_effect
Example of irrational preferences over lotteries
The certainty effect highlights the appeal of a zero-variance lottery. Recent studies have indicated an alternate explanation to the certainty effect called
Allais_paradox
Cognitive bias
certainty effect, the pseudocertainty effect was discovered from an attempt at providing a normative use of decision theory for the certainty effect by
Pseudocertainty_effect
Bias in which choices are influenced by the options' connotations
significant than the equivalent gain, that a sure gain (certainty effect and pseudocertainty effect) is favored over a probabilistic gain, and that a probabilistic
Framing_effect_(psychology)
Economics theory
loss of 4,000 to a certain loss of 3,000. The reflection effect (as well as the certainty effect) is inconsistent with the expected utility hypothesis.
Risk_aversion
Theory of behavioral economics
type of cognitive bias which is observed for example in the overconfidence effect. The theory describes the decision processes in two stages: During an initial
Prospect_theory
Legal principle
Regressive Effect of Legal Uncertainty, The Journal of Dispute Resolution, 2019. Maxeiner, James R. (Fall 2008). "Some realism about legal certainty in globalization
Legal_certainty
How one process influences another
process, state, or object (i.e., an effect) where the cause is at least partly responsible for the effect, and the effect is at least partly dependent on
Causality
Probabilistic optimal control
discrete-time centralized systems with only additive uncertainty is the certainty equivalence property: that the optimal control solution in this case is
Stochastic_control
Concept in decision theory
above is that it has a ‘certainty effect’, that the outcomes without probabilities (determined in advance) will make a larger effect on the utility functions
Lottery_(decision_theory)
outcome; this is called the reflection effect because it leads to the opposite result of the certainty effect. Previous studies focusing on description-based
Description-experience_gap
Electromagnetic effect in physics
The fractional quantum Hall effect (fractional QHE or FQHE) is the observation of precisely quantized plateaus in the Hall conductance of 2-dimensional
Fractional quantum Hall effect
Fractional_quantum_Hall_effect
PMID 13084849. Fischhoff B, Slovic P, Lichtenstein S (1977). "Knowing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence". Journal of Experimental Psychology:
List_of_cognitive_biases
substantial certainty doctrine is the assumption of intent even if the actor did not intend the result, but knew with substantial certainty the effect would
Substantial certainty doctrine
Substantial_certainty_doctrine
Certainty in English law sets out rules for how judges will interpret, sever or put contracts, trusts and other voluntary obligations into effect. If
Certainty_in_English_law
Theory in political science and media studies
original). and (4) one of the common grounds of CNN effect is policy uncertainty; as policy certainty reduces, media influence increases and vice versa
CNN_effect
Method of assessing the certainty in evidence
Evaluation) is a method of assessing the certainty in evidence (also known as quality of evidence or confidence in effect estimates) and the strength of recommendations
GRADE_approach
Cognitive bias
have a certainty equivalent (that is itself, a loss). This means that accepting a certain loss that is less in absolute value than the certainty equivalent
Disposition_effect
Rejection of certain ideas about reality
exist. One argument in favor of radical skepticism asserts that absolute certainty is required for knowledge. It attempts to show that doubt can never be
Nihilism
Personal cognitive bias
performance relative to others; and (3) overprecision in expressing unwarranted certainty in the accuracy of one's beliefs. The most common way in which overconfidence
Overconfidence_effect
Quantum mechanical phenomenon
Classically, the electron would either transmit or reflect with 100% certainty, depending on its energy. In 1928 J. Robert Oppenheimer published two
Quantum_tunnelling
1980 book by Morris Kline
Mathematics: The Loss of Certainty is a book by Morris Kline on the developing perspectives within mathematical cultures throughout the centuries. This
Mathematics: The Loss of Certainty
Mathematics:_The_Loss_of_Certainty
Behavioural effect
A woman goes to her doctor with a problem. The doctor diagnoses with certainty, and then clearly explains the diagnosis and the expected route towards
Subject-expectancy_effect
Concept in economics
payoff ($50), many people choose the guaranteed $50 because they value the certainty of the smaller reward more than the possibility of a larger one, reflecting
Expected_utility_hypothesis
Summit of spiritual path in mystic Islam
Yaqeen (Arabic: یقین) is generally translated as "certainty", and is considered the summit of the many stations by which the path of walaya (sometimes
Yaqeen
History of the development of microeconomics as a study
in comparison with outcomes that are obtained with certainty. This tendency, called certainty effect, contributes to risk aversion in choices involving
History_of_microeconomics
Use of punishment as a threat to deter people from offending
first being the certainty of punishment, by increasing the likelihood of apprehension and punishment, this may have a deterrent effect. The second relates
Deterrence_(penology)
Mathematical index used in Bayesian statistics
probability of direction (pd) is a measure of effect existence representing the certainty with which an effect is positive or negative. This index is numerically
Probability_of_direction
Decision strategy
such as the Allais paradox, the four-fold pattern, the certainty effect, the possibility effect, or intransitivities. The heuristic maps onto Rubinstein’s
Priority_heuristic
Theory in economics
can give a country a stable revenue stream, improving the year-to-year certainty of revenues. Also, a country can provide for future generations by setting
Dutch_disease
Autonomy granted through headphones
The Walkman effect is the way music listened to via headphones grants the listener more control over their environment. The term was coined by Shuhei Hosokawa [ja]
Walkman_effect
Equations of motion for viscous fluids
the flow is affected by inertia). It is believed, though not known with certainty, that the Navier–Stokes equations describe turbulence properly. The numerical
Navier–Stokes_equations
Influence of forensic science fiction on public perceptions
to use terms that are less definite, which acknowledges that absolute certainty is often not possible. Anthony E. Zuiker, creator of the CSI franchise
CSI_effect
1994 American film
The Coriolis Effect is a 1994 short black-and-white film starring James Wilder, Jennifer Rubin, Dana Ashbrook and Corinne Bohrer, featuring a voice-only
The_Coriolis_Effect
Effect of environs on individual people, as effected at the neighborhood level
neighborhood effect is an economic and social science concept that posits that neighbourhoods have either a direct or an indirect effect on individual
Neighbourhood_effect
Postulated future astronomical event
currently colliding with the Milky Way and being merged into it. The certainty, as well as the timescale for such a collision, have since been questioned
Andromeda–Milky_Way_collision
Principle in European Union law
horizontal effect (against another private individual or company), as this is adjudged contrary to the principles of legality and legal certainty (see Marshall
Direct effect of European Union law
Direct_effect_of_European_Union_law
Scientific projections regarding the far future
While the future cannot be predicted with certainty, present understanding in various scientific fields allows for the prediction of some far-future events
Timeline_of_the_far_future
Study of mental functions and behaviors
enthusiastically reporting great certainty in unimportant facts. Some psychologists have responded with an increased use of effect size statistics, rather than
Psychology
Type of confirmation bias
they could have predicted or perhaps even known with a high degree of certainty what the outcome of the event would be before it occurred. Hindsight bias
Hindsight_bias
Theory of response to surprise events
will occur with great certainty. According to Taleb, the pandemic was not a black swan, as it was expected with great certainty that a global pandemic
Black_swan_theory
Situations involving imperfect or unknown information
have defined uncertainty, risk, and their measurement as: The lack of certainty, a state of limited knowledge where it is impossible to exactly describe
Uncertainty
Psychological sensation and phenomenon
are associated with a mild form of epilepsy, and, though by no means a certainty, déjà vu, along with jamais vu, occurs often enough during seizures (such
Déjà_vu
according to Lom. "An escalation in the number of deaths is almost a certainty," according to William Hyde, Jakarta-based emergency relief coordinator
Effect of the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake on Indonesia
Effect_of_the_2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake_on_Indonesia
Concept in inferential statistics
thresholds set at a much stricter level (for example 5σ). For instance, the certainty of the Higgs boson particle's existence was based on the 5σ criterion
Statistical_significance
Physics phenomenon
can predict with certainty that Bob's result will be 1. Likewise, if she obtains the outcome 1, then she can predict with certainty that Bob's result
Quantum_entanglement
Epistemic overconfidence instilled by pop-sci oversimplifications
with writing style. Popular articles condense the science and speak with certainty whereas an academic paper speaks mostly in terms of probability. Hence
Easiness_effect
German-born theoretical physicist (1879–1955)
that: "If, without in any way disturbing a system, we can predict with certainty (i.e., with probability equal to unity) the value of a physical quantity
Albert_Einstein
Hallucinogenic class of psychoactive drug
Psychedelics are a subclass of hallucinogenic drugs whose primary effect is to trigger non-ordinary mental states (known as psychedelic experiences or
Psychedelic_drug
Examples of the butterfly effect
Havana and The Butterfly Effect mischaracterize the butterfly effect by asserting the effect can be calculated with certainty, because this is the opposite
Butterfly effect in popular culture
Butterfly_effect_in_popular_culture
Free online crowdsourced encyclopedia
by their IP addresses cannot be attributed to a particular editor with certainty. New editors often struggle to understand Wikipedia's complexity. Experienced
Wikipedia
Doubt about God's existence
to skepticism and fallibilism, which deny that knowledge or absolute certainty is possible. Various arguments for and against agnosticism are discussed
Agnosticism
English legal case 1840
law case, embodying a simple statement of the "three certainties" principle. This has the effect of determining whether assets can be disposed of in wills
Knight_v_Knight
Sermon by Jonathan Edwards (1741)
preached to his own congregation in Northampton, Massachusetts, to profound effect, and again on July 8, 1741, in Enfield, Connecticut. The preaching of this
Sinners in the Hands of an Angry God
Sinners_in_the_Hands_of_an_Angry_God
Hindu tradition of textual interpretation
ISBN 978-1-898723-66-0.[permanent dead link] John W. Pettit (1999). Mipham's Beacon of Certainty: Illuminating the View of Dzogchen, the Great Perfection. Simon and Schuster
Advaita_Vedanta
128-bit number used to identify information in computer systems
can create large numbers of UUIDs and use them as identifiers with near certainty that they do not duplicate UUIDs that have been, or will be, created by
Universally_unique_identifier
Cognitive tendency where lack of information affects decision making
The ambiguity effect is a cognitive tendency where decision making is affected by a lack of information, or "ambiguity". The effect implies that people
Ambiguity_effect
Method of identifying the fundamental causes of faults or problems
factor can benefit an outcome, it does not prevent its recurrence with certainty. A great way to look at the proactive/reactive picture is to consider
Root-cause_analysis
Aspect of learning procedure
"predicts" that the US may occur. Still, the room predicts with much less certainty than does the experimental CS itself, because the room is also there between
Classical_conditioning
Status given to some Scientologists
Hubbard states that merely knowing what the cognition is does not have the effect of realizing it for oneself: Now, we've known for a long time that a thetan
Clear_(Scientology)
Fictional character
Kaidan Alenko is a fictional character in BioWare's Mass Effect franchise, who acts as a party member (or "squadmate") in the first and third games in
Kaidan_Alenko
Pharaoh of Egypt from 51 to 30 BC
Francisco Pina Polo writes that Cleopatra's coinage present her image with certainty and asserts that the sculpted portrait of the Berlin head is confirmed
Cleopatra
Coordinate system using perpendicular axes
Philosophy Cartesianism Rationalism Foundationalism Mechanism Doubt and certainty Existence of God Dream argument Cogito, ergo sum Evil demon Trademark
Cartesian_coordinate_system
Shorthand used in statistics
and thus it is empirically useful to treat 99.7% probability as near certainty. In the social sciences, a result may be considered statistically significant
68–95–99.7_rule
Historical critique of quantum mechanics
that: "If, without in any way disturbing a system, we can predict with certainty (i.e., with probability equal to unity) the value of a physical quantity
Einstein–Podolsky–Rosen paradox
Einstein–Podolsky–Rosen_paradox
Method of logical reasoning
in which the conclusion of an argument is supported not with deductive certainty, but at best with some degree of probability. Unlike deductive reasoning
Inductive_reasoning
State of low mood and aversion to activity
evidence was of very low certainty, and some participants were more likely to drop out of therapy. There was no clear effect on symptoms, with only short
Depression_(mood)
Chemical element with atomic number 85 (At)
its radioactivity. The bulk properties of astatine are not known with certainty. Many of them have been estimated from its position on the periodic table
Astatine
costs of delay in making a reference outweighed the benefits from total certainty. By contrast, in ParkingEye Ltd v Beavis, a majority of the Supreme Court
Law_of_the_European_Union
Network that allows computers to share resources and communicate with each other
Applications; NII 2000 Steering Committee (1998-02-05). The Unpredictable Certainty: White Papers. National Academies Press. ISBN 978-0-309-17414-5. Archived
Computer_network
"Marijuana as a trigger of cardiovascular events: speculation or scientific certainty?". International Journal of Cardiology. 118 (2): 141–4. doi:10.1016/j
Effects_of_cannabis
Principles applied by European courts
Union law the general principle of legal certainty prohibits retroactive laws: laws should not take effect before they are published. The general principle
General principles of European Union law
General_principles_of_European_Union_law
duration by about two days, though the evidence was of low to very low certainty. Zinc offered minimal benefit in preventing infections and was associated
Zinc_and_the_common_cold
Canadian bridge from Prince Edward Island to the mainland
for the steam service referred to in this Schedule... That, for greater certainty, nothing in this Schedule prevents the imposition of tolls for the use
Confederation_Bridge
Removal of the human foreskin
parts of Southern Africa. The origin of circumcision is not known with certainty, but the oldest documentation comes from ancient Egypt. Approximately
Circumcision
Agreement between two or more people to commit a crime at some time in the future
development by the courts in ways which might offend the principle of certainty. There was an additional problem that it could be a criminal conspiracy
Criminal_conspiracy
Law created by judicial precedent
criticised as giving too much power to unelected officials, predicating legal certainty upon the nature and volume of cases litigated, and allowing for retrospective
Common_law
Chen and Duan, the genetic ancestry of individuals cannot be traced with certainty and attempts to construct identity through genetics are "theoretically
Taiwanese_indigenous_peoples
Foundational principle in quantum physics
conjectured a stronger extension of the uncertainty principle based on entropic certainty. This conjecture, also studied by I. I. Hirschman and proven in 1975 by
Uncertainty_principle
Unscientific healthcare practices
While this had much improved medical practice by defining with increasing certainty the pathophysiological basis of disease, a single-minded focus on the
Alternative_medicine
Overview of the effects of cars on various societies
would continue to persist, as it did in the 1950s and 1960s, no such certainty existed at the time when British architect Martin Pawley authored his
Societal_effects_of_cars
Algorithm that estimates unknowns from a series of measurements over time
a weighted average, with more weight given to estimates with greater certainty. The algorithm is recursive. It can operate in real time, using only the
Kalman_filter
Self-awareness about thinking, higher-order thinking skills
than the certainty of the attitude. When considering a social behavior like voting, a person may place high importance on it but have low certainty. This
Metacognition
Island and region in Indonesia
resulted in their interment, but population is difficult to approximate with certainty. This site is quite far from the north coast of Java Island, and it is
Java
Potential business transaction
Skydance offer in favor of its agreement with Netflix, citing greater certainty and financial terms. The board subsequently rejected the bid and advised
Proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery by Paramount Skydance
Proposed_acquisition_of_Warner_Bros._Discovery_by_Paramount_Skydance
British politician (1912–1998)
could not be prevented by laws and punishments but by the aggressor's certainty that the war was impossible to win. When Heath called a leadership election
Enoch_Powell
Life-threatening response to infection
vasopressor therapy. A 2019 Cochrane (updated in 2025) review found moderate certainty evidence of benefit, as did two 2019 reviews. During critical illness
Sepsis
Species of owl
wapacuthu was occasionally used for this subspecies, but it cannot with certainty be assigned to a recognizable taxon and is thus considered a nomen dubium
Great_horned_owl
been found, but especially for the earlier inventions, there is little certainty how close that may be to where the invention took place. The Lower Paleolithic
Timeline of historic inventions
Timeline_of_historic_inventions
Peshwa of the Maratha Empire from 1720 to 1740
second wife Mastani is a controversial subject; very little is known with certainty about it. She was generally referenced cryptically in books, letters or
Bajirao_I
Parental expenditure that benefits offspring
grandchildren, especially the children of their daughters, because maternal certainty of their own children is high, and their daughters are certain of their
Parental_investment
Composer and musician (1756–1791)
aristocrats' graves were not. The cause of Mozart's death is not known with certainty. The official record of hitziges Frieselfieber ("severe miliary fever"
Wolfgang_Amadeus_Mozart
Catastrophic earthquake that primarily affected Lisbon, Portugal
foundational certainty of René Descartes' philosophy began to shake following the Lisbon earthquake. The earthquake had a major effect on politics. The
1755_Lisbon_earthquake
1941 Japanese attack on the US
Union.[page needed][page needed] "The Dorn report did not state with certainty that Kimmel and Short knew about Taranto. There is, however, no doubt
Attack_on_Pearl_Harbor
Legal English term
contract may better define their relationship and the will to provide certainty if terms in the contract are ever disputed. Boilerplate clauses are standard
Boilerplate_clause
American YouTuber and streamer (born 1994)
microphone before reiterating certainty that Mitchell cheated — was presented into evidence to illustrate a "grapevine effect" of Jobst's videos on other
Cr1TiKaL
English football club (1889–2004)
of the Wimbledon FC League share to Milton Keynes Dons Ltd, bringing certainty to a future for the football club in Milton Keynes.' "WebCHeck". London:
Wimbledon_F.C.
Trust which is explicitly created and not inferred from the parties' conduct
Commissioner of Taxation (1988) Certainty of object:Beneficiaries must be ascertainable – Fixed trust – ‘List certainty rule’ (Test) see e.g. West v Weston
Express_trust
2011 book by Daniel Kahneman
underestimate the role of chance in particular. This is related to the excessive certainty of hindsight, when an event seems to be understood after it has occurred
Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow
Time unit equal to seven days
ad quem (viz. 1st century). The terminus a quo cannot be stated with certainty". The seven-day weekly cycle has remained unbroken in Christendom, and
Week
CERTAINTY EFFECT
CERTAINTY EFFECT
Girl/Female
Hindu
Certainty, Confidence
Girl/Female
Arabic, Muslim
Stability; Firmness; Certainty; Boldness; Truth; Endurance
Girl/Female
Tamil
Nischita | நீஸà¯à®šà¯€à®¤à®¾
Certainty, Confidence
Nischita | நீஸà¯à®šà¯€à®¤à®¾
Girl/Female
Spanish
Certain fortune; fate.
Male
Chamoru
, certainly, truly.
Boy/Male
Arabic, Muslim
Confident; Sure; Certain
Boy/Male
Indian
Certain
Girl/Female
Indian
Confident, Sure, Certain
Girl/Female
Tamil
Nischitha | நீஸà¯à®šà¯€à®¤à®¾Â
Certainty, Confidence
Nischitha | நீஸà¯à®šà¯€à®¤à®¾Â
Boy/Male
Bengali, Hindu, Indian
Certain; Eternal
Boy/Male
Hindu
The enduring sound, Heaven, Certainly, Eternally
Boy/Male
Hindu, Indian
Certain or for Sure
Boy/Male
Arabic, Muslim
Firmness; Stability; Certainty; Endurance; Boldness; Truth
Surname or Lastname
French
French : nickname from certain ‘certain’, ‘resolute’, a derivative of Old French certise ‘certitude’.English : variant spelling of Sartain, cognate with 1.
Boy/Male
Indian
Certain
Girl/Female
Arabic, Muslim
Certain; Firm
Boy/Male
Tamil
The enduring sound, Heaven, Certainly, Eternally
Girl/Female
Hindu
Certainty, Confidence
Girl/Female
Muslim
Confident, Sure, Certain
Boy/Male
Arabic
Certain; Strong; Firm
CERTAINTY EFFECT
CERTAINTY EFFECT
Male
Egyptian
, a grandson of Tetet.
Female
English
Variant spelling of English Mona, MONNA means "little noble one" or "advise, counsel."Â
Surname or Lastname
English
English : habitational name from Atchley in Shropshire.
Surname or Lastname
English
English : from the Middle English personal name Lefman (see Leaman, Lemon).
Girl/Female
American, Anglo, Australian, British, English, Latin
Divine
Male
Greek
(Αντώνιος) Greek name, possibly ANTONIOS means "invaluable."Â
Girl/Female
Hindu
Girl/Female
British, English
Form of Dorothy; A Gift of God
Girl/Female
Assamese, Gujarati, Hindu, Indian, Kannada, Malayalam, Marathi, Telugu
Sleep
Boy/Male
Muslim
Dignified
CERTAINTY EFFECT
CERTAINTY EFFECT
CERTAINTY EFFECT
CERTAINTY EFFECT
CERTAINTY EFFECT
a.
Actually existing; sure to happen; inevitable.
n.
Certainty.
a.
Determined; resolved; -- used with an infinitive.
pl.
of Certainty
adv.
In a sure or certain manner; certainly; infallibly; undoubtedly; assuredly.
n.
The quality, state, or condition, of being certain.
n.
Certainty.
a.
Unfailing; infallible.
adv.
Without doubt or question; unquestionably.
a.
Fixed or stated; regular; determinate.
a.
Assured in mind; having no doubts; free from suspicions concerning.
adv.
Certainly.
n.
That which is uncertain; something unknown.
a.
Not to be doubted or denied; established as a fact.
n.
A fact or truth unquestionable established.
n.
Uncertainty.
n.
A certain number or quantity.
a.
Not specifically named; indeterminate; indefinite; one or some; -- sometimes used independenty as a noun, and meaning certain persons.
n.
The quality or state of being uncertain.
n.
Clearness; freedom from ambiguity; lucidity.