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Psychological effect
The certainty effect is the psychological effect resulting from the reduction of probability from certain to probable (Tversky & Kahneman 1986). It is
Certainty_effect
Example of irrational preferences over lotteries
The certainty effect highlights the appeal of a zero-variance lottery. Recent studies have indicated an alternate explanation to the certainty effect called
Allais_paradox
Cognitive bias
certainty effect, the pseudocertainty effect was discovered from an attempt at providing a normative use of decision theory for the certainty effect by
Pseudocertainty_effect
Bias in which choices are influenced by the options' connotations
significant than the equivalent gain, that a sure gain (certainty effect and pseudocertainty effect) is favored over a probabilistic gain, and that a probabilistic
Framing_effect_(psychology)
Economics theory
loss of 4,000 to a certain loss of 3,000. The reflection effect (as well as the certainty effect) is inconsistent with the expected utility hypothesis.
Risk_aversion
Theory of behavioral economics
type of cognitive bias which is observed for example in the overconfidence effect. The theory describes the decision processes in two stages: During an initial
Prospect_theory
Probabilistic optimal control
discrete-time centralized systems with only additive uncertainty is the certainty equivalence property: that the optimal control solution in this case is
Stochastic_control
Legal principle
Regressive Effect of Legal Uncertainty, The Journal of Dispute Resolution, 2019. Maxeiner, James R. (Fall 2008). "Some realism about legal certainty in globalization
Legal_certainty
How one process influences another
process, state, or object (i.e., an effect) where the cause is at least partly responsible for the effect, and the effect is at least partly dependent on
Causality
Concept in decision theory
above is that it has a ‘certainty effect’, that the outcomes without probabilities (determined in advance) will make a larger effect on the utility functions
Lottery_(decision_theory)
Examples of the butterfly effect
Havana and The Butterfly Effect mischaracterize the butterfly effect by asserting the effect can be calculated with certainty, because this is the opposite
Butterfly effect in popular culture
Butterfly_effect_in_popular_culture
PMID 13084849. Fischhoff B, Slovic P, Lichtenstein S (1977). "Knowing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence". Journal of Experimental Psychology:
List_of_cognitive_biases
substantial certainty doctrine is the assumption of intent even if the actor did not intend the result, but knew with substantial certainty the effect would
Substantial certainty doctrine
Substantial_certainty_doctrine
Electromagnetic effect in physics
The fractional quantum Hall effect (fractional QHE or FQHE) is the observation of precisely quantized plateaus in the Hall conductance of 2-dimensional
Fractional quantum Hall effect
Fractional_quantum_Hall_effect
Theory in political science and media studies
original). and (4) one of the common grounds of CNN effect is policy uncertainty; as policy certainty reduces, media influence increases and vice versa
CNN_effect
outcome; this is called the reflection effect because it leads to the opposite result of the certainty effect. Previous studies focusing on description-based
Description-experience_gap
Quantum mechanical phenomenon
Classically, the electron would either transmit or reflect with 100% certainty, depending on its energy. In 1928 J. Robert Oppenheimer published two
Quantum_tunnelling
Cognitive bias
have a certainty equivalent (that is itself, a loss). This means that accepting a certain loss that is less in absolute value than the certainty equivalent
Disposition_effect
Method of assessing the certainty in evidence
Evaluation) is a method of assessing the certainty in evidence (also known as quality of evidence or confidence in effect estimates) and the strength of recommendations
GRADE_approach
Personal cognitive bias
performance relative to others; and (3) overprecision in expressing unwarranted certainty in the accuracy of one's beliefs. The most common way in which overconfidence
Overconfidence_effect
Rejection of certain ideas about reality
exist. One argument in favor of radical skepticism asserts that absolute certainty is required for knowledge. It attempts to show that doubt can never be
Nihilism
History of the development of microeconomics as a study
in comparison with outcomes that are obtained with certainty. This tendency, called certainty effect, contributes to risk aversion in choices involving
History_of_microeconomics
Behavioural effect
A woman goes to her doctor with a problem. The doctor diagnoses with certainty, and then clearly explains the diagnosis and the expected route towards
Subject-expectancy_effect
Concept in economics
payoff ($50), many people choose the guaranteed $50 because they value the certainty of the smaller reward more than the possibility of a larger one, reflecting
Expected_utility_hypothesis
Summit of spiritual path in mystic Islam
Yaqeen (Arabic: یقین) is generally translated as "certainty", and is considered the summit of the many stations by which the path of walaya (sometimes
Yaqeen
Certainty in English law sets out rules for how judges will interpret, sever or put contracts, trusts and other voluntary obligations into effect. If
Certainty_in_English_law
Mathematical index used in Bayesian statistics
probability of direction (pd) is a measure of effect existence representing the certainty with which an effect is positive or negative. This index is numerically
Probability_of_direction
Theory in economics
can give a country a stable revenue stream, improving the year-to-year certainty of revenues. Also, a country can provide for future generations by setting
Dutch_disease
Autonomy granted through headphones
thereby violating "an unwritten law of interpersonal reciprocity: the certainty of common sensual presence in shared situations". He goes on to draw a
Walkman_effect
Use of punishment as a threat to deter people from offending
first being the certainty of punishment, by increasing the likelihood of apprehension and punishment, this may have a deterrent effect. The second relates
Deterrence_(penology)
Equations of motion for viscous fluids
the flow is affected by inertia). It is believed, though not known with certainty, that the Navier–Stokes equations describe turbulence properly. The numerical
Navier–Stokes_equations
Theory of response to surprise events
will occur with great certainty. According to Taleb, the pandemic was not a black swan, as it was expected with great certainty that a global pandemic
Black_swan_theory
Type of confirmation bias
they could have predicted or perhaps even known with a high degree of certainty what the outcome of the event would be before it occurred. Hindsight bias
Hindsight_bias
Influence of forensic science fiction on public perceptions
to use terms that are less definite, which acknowledges that absolute certainty is often not possible. Anthony E. Zuiker, creator of the CSI franchise
CSI_effect
Principle in European Union law
horizontal effect (against another private individual or company), as this is adjudged contrary to the principles of legality and legal certainty (see Marshall
Direct effect of European Union law
Direct_effect_of_European_Union_law
Scientific projections regarding the far future
While the future cannot be predicted with certainty, present understanding in various scientific fields allows for the prediction of some far-future events
Timeline_of_the_far_future
Psychological sensation and phenomenon
are associated with a mild form of epilepsy, and, though by no means a certainty, déjà vu, along with jamais vu, occurs often enough during seizures (such
Déjà_vu
Effect of environs on individual people, as effected at the neighborhood level
neighborhood effect is an economic and social science concept that posits that neighbourhoods have either a direct or an indirect effect on individual
Neighbourhood_effect
Decision strategy
such as the Allais paradox, the four-fold pattern, the certainty effect, the possibility effect, or intransitivities. The heuristic maps onto Rubinstein’s
Priority_heuristic
Sermon by Jonathan Edwards (1741)
preached to his own congregation in Northampton, Massachusetts, to profound effect, and again on July 8, 1741, in Enfield, Connecticut. The preaching of this
Sinners in the Hands of an Angry God
Sinners_in_the_Hands_of_an_Angry_God
Situations involving imperfect or unknown information
have defined uncertainty, risk, and their measurement as: The lack of certainty, a state of limited knowledge where it is impossible to exactly describe
Uncertainty
1980 book by Morris Kline
Mathematics: The Loss of Certainty is a book by Morris Kline on the developing perspectives within mathematical cultures throughout the centuries. This
Mathematics: The Loss of Certainty
Mathematics:_The_Loss_of_Certainty
English legal case 1840
law case, embodying a simple statement of the "three certainties" principle. This has the effect of determining whether assets can be disposed of in wills
Knight_v_Knight
Postulated future astronomical event
currently colliding with the Milky Way and being merged into it. The certainty, as well as the timescale for such a collision, have since been questioned
Andromeda–Milky_Way_collision
Status given to some Scientologists
Hubbard states that merely knowing what the cognition is does not have the effect of realizing it for oneself: Now, we've known for a long time that a thetan
Clear_(Scientology)
1994 American film
The Coriolis Effect is a 1994 short black-and-white film starring James Wilder, Jennifer Rubin, Dana Ashbrook and Corinne Bohrer, featuring a voice-only
The_Coriolis_Effect
Parental expenditure that benefits offspring
grandchildren, especially the children of their daughters, because maternal certainty of their own children is high, and their daughters are certain of their
Parental_investment
Concept in inferential statistics
thresholds set at a much stricter level (for example 5σ). For instance, the certainty of the Higgs boson particle's existence was based on the 5σ criterion
Statistical_significance
Physics phenomenon
can predict with certainty that Bob's result will be 1. Likewise, if she obtains the outcome 1, then she can predict with certainty that Bob's result
Quantum_entanglement
Principles applied by European courts
Union law the general principle of legal certainty prohibits retroactive laws: laws should not take effect before they are published. The general principle
General principles of European Union law
General_principles_of_European_Union_law
according to Lom. "An escalation in the number of deaths is almost a certainty," according to William Hyde, Jakarta-based emergency relief coordinator
Effect of the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake on Indonesia
Effect_of_the_2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake_on_Indonesia
Concept in communication studies
occurrence. Two requires that certainty is not dependent on external factors which can undermine its validity. Certainty must be a concept which is pushed
Vested interest (communication theory)
Vested_interest_(communication_theory)
German-born theoretical physicist (1879–1955)
that: "If, without in any way disturbing a system, we can predict with certainty (i.e., with probability equal to unity) the value of a physical quantity
Albert_Einstein
Hindu tradition of textual interpretation
ISBN 978-1-898723-66-0.[permanent dead link] John W. Pettit (1999). Mipham's Beacon of Certainty: Illuminating the View of Dzogchen, the Great Perfection. Simon and Schuster
Advaita_Vedanta
Function of the observed sample results
typically varying between 50% and 100%, and representing the certainty with which an effect is positive or negative. Second-generation p-values extend the
P-value
Shorthand used in statistics
and thus it is empirically useful to treat 99.7% probability as near certainty. In the social sciences, a result may be considered statistically significant
68–95–99.7_rule
Fictional character
Kaidan Alenko is a fictional character in BioWare's Mass Effect franchise, who acts as a party member (or "squadmate") in the first and third games in
Kaidan_Alenko
Hallucinogenic class of psychoactive drug
Psychedelics are a subclass of hallucinogenic drugs whose primary effect is to trigger non-ordinary mental states (known as psychedelic experiences or
Psychedelic_drug
Network that allows computers to share resources and communicate with each other
Applications; NII 2000 Steering Committee (1998-02-05). The Unpredictable Certainty: White Papers. National Academies Press. ISBN 978-0-309-17414-5. Archived
Computer_network
US government medical review and recommendation panel
each grade. The Task Force also defined levels of certainty regarding net benefit. Levels of certainty vary from high to low according to the evidence.
United States Preventive Services Task Force
United_States_Preventive_Services_Task_Force
Epistemic overconfidence instilled by pop-sci oversimplifications
The easiness effect is the claim that as a result of science popularization laypeople develop an overconfident scientific understanding. This results in
Easiness_effect
Free online crowdsourced encyclopedia
by their IP addresses cannot be attributed to a particular editor with certainty. New editors often struggle to understand Wikipedia's complexity. Experienced
Wikipedia
State of low mood and aversion to activity
evidence was of very low certainty, and some participants were more likely to drop out of therapy. There was no clear effect on symptoms, with only short
Depression_(mood)
128-bit number used to identify information in computer systems
can create large numbers of UUIDs and use them as identifiers with near certainty that they do not duplicate UUIDs that have been, or will be, created by
Universally_unique_identifier
Historical critique of quantum mechanics
that: "If, without in any way disturbing a system, we can predict with certainty (i.e., with probability equal to unity) the value of a physical quantity
Einstein–Podolsky–Rosen paradox
Einstein–Podolsky–Rosen_paradox
Cognitive tendency where lack of information affects decision making
The ambiguity effect is a cognitive tendency where decision making is affected by a lack of information, or "ambiguity". The effect implies that people
Ambiguity_effect
Method of identifying the fundamental causes of faults or problems
factor can benefit an outcome, it does not prevent its recurrence with certainty. A great way to look at the proactive/reactive picture is to consider
Root-cause_analysis
Doubt about God's existence
with skepticism and fallibilism, which deny that knowledge or absolute certainty are possible. Various arguments for and against agnosticism are discussed
Agnosticism
Overview of the effects of cars on various societies
would continue to persist, as it did in the 1950s and 1960s, no such certainty existed at the time when British architect Martin Pawley authored his
Societal_effects_of_cars
Method of logical reasoning
in which the conclusion of an argument is supported not with deductive certainty, but at best with some degree of probability. Unlike deductive reasoning
Inductive_reasoning
1936 novel by William Faulkner
narratives, or to show that such a reconstruction cannot be done with certainty or even to prove that there are factual and logical inconsistencies that
Absalom,_Absalom!
Fear of the sea or large open water
ancestral trait passed on from generation to generation. Humans prefer certainty to risk and adapt based on learning history and situational variables
Thalassophobia
Catastrophic earthquake that primarily affected Lisbon, Portugal
foundational certainty of René Descartes' philosophy began to shake following the Lisbon earthquake. The earthquake had a major effect on politics. The
1755_Lisbon_earthquake
Coordinate system using perpendicular axes
Philosophy Cartesianism Rationalism Foundationalism Mechanism Doubt and certainty Existence of God Dream argument Cogito, ergo sum Evil demon Trademark
Cartesian_coordinate_system
Field of ecology
rate, and the birthing success of the offspring. There is found to be no effect of the young being raised by the natural parents or foster parents, the
Population_ecology
Area of healthcare that focuses on relieving and preventing suffering
these interventions for older people dying in these facilities. High-certainty evidence supports the finding that implementation of home-based end-of-life
Palliative_care
Island and region in Indonesia
resulted in their interment, but population is difficult to approximate with certainty. This site is quite far from the north coast of Java Island, and it is
Java
duration by about two days, though the evidence was of low to very low certainty. Zinc offered minimal benefit in preventing infections and was associated
Zinc_and_the_common_cold
2026 single by Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter
and said the song's mix of "lyrical confusion and musical certainty" had a "trance-like" effect. Sebas E. Alonso of Jenesaispop said the song was neither
Bring_Your_Love
British politician (1912–1998)
could not be prevented by laws and punishments but by the aggressor's certainty that the war was impossible to win. When Heath called a leadership election
Enoch_Powell
Self-awareness about thinking, higher-order thinking skills
than the certainty of the attitude. When considering a social behavior like voting, a person may place high importance on it but have low certainty. This
Metacognition
Figure of speech
Hangman, that hath plaid the knaue [knave] with all men, and for the more certainty his Embleme is a red Beard, to which Sacke hath made his nose cousin German
Jack_of_all_trades
Species of owl
wapacuthu was occasionally used for this subspecies, but it cannot with certainty be assigned to a recognizable taxon and is thus considered a nomen dubium
Great_horned_owl
Removal of the human foreskin
parts of Southern Africa. The origin of circumcision is not known with certainty, but the oldest documentation comes from ancient Egypt. Approximately
Circumcision
Composer and musician (1756–1791)
aristocrats' graves were not. The cause of Mozart's death is not known with certainty. The official record of hitziges Frieselfieber ("severe miliary fever"
Wolfgang_Amadeus_Mozart
2009 erotic thriller film
four stars and wrote: "It's not the kind of movie that depends on the certainty of an ending. It's more about how things continue." Todd McCarthy of Variety
Chloe_(2009_film)
Inflammatory bowel disease that causes ulcers in the colon
Cochrane review of controlled trials using various probiotics found low-certainty evidence that probiotic supplements may increase the probability of clinical
Ulcerative_colitis
costs of delay in making a reference outweighed the benefits from total certainty. By contrast, in ParkingEye Ltd v Beavis, a majority of the Supreme Court
Law_of_the_European_Union
Jesus as a historical person
George Syncellus in his Chronicle (c. 800). There is no means by which certainty can be established concerning this or any of the other lost references
Historical_Jesus
2011 book by Daniel Kahneman
underestimate the role of chance in particular. This is related to the excessive certainty of hindsight, when an event seems to be understood after it has occurred
Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow
Canadian bridge from Prince Edward Island to the mainland
for the steam service referred to in this Schedule... That, for greater certainty, nothing in this Schedule prevents the imposition of tolls for the use
Confederation_Bridge
Class of hypothetical redshift mechanisms
available at that time to show this with certainty. Alternatively, Zwicky proposed a kind of Sachs–Wolfe effect explanation for the redshift distance relation:
Tired_light
1942 German naval order forbidding the rescue of Allied survivors
Tribunal is of the opinion that the evidence does not establish with the certainty required that Dönitz deliberately ordered the killing of shipwrecked survivors
Laconia_Order
Type of energy transfer
various ways by the application of mechanical force, establish almost to a certainty, not only the possibility of increasing the quantity of heat, but also
Heat
Sexual arousal a person receives from an object or situation
these techniques is weak). The prevalence of fetishism is not known with certainty. Fetishism is more common in males. In a 2011 study, 30% of men reported
Sexual_fetishism
Agreement between two or more people to commit a crime at some time in the future
development by the courts in ways which might offend the principle of certainty. There was an additional problem that it could be a criminal conspiracy
Criminal_conspiracy
Irregular beating of the atria of the heart
G (January 2018). "Hypertension and Atrial Fibrillation: Doubts and Certainties From Basic and Clinical Studies". Circulation Research. 122 (2): 352–368
Atrial_fibrillation
responsibilities, and is prone to telling outlandish stories with little certainty as to their veracity. Despite his bizarre behavior, he is tolerated by
List of The Office (American TV series) characters
List_of_The_Office_(American_TV_series)_characters
American YouTuber and streamer (born 1994)
microphone before reiterating certainty that Mitchell cheated — was presented into evidence to illustrate a "grapevine effect" of Jobst's videos on other
Cr1TiKaL
Syrian territory occupied by Israel since 1967
development projects in the Golan are going ahead as planned, propelled by the certainty that any attempt to harm Israeli sovereignty in the Golan will cause severe
Golan_Heights
CERTAINTY EFFECT
CERTAINTY EFFECT
Boy/Male
Hindu
The enduring sound, Heaven, Certainly, Eternally
Boy/Male
Arabic, Muslim
Firmness; Stability; Certainty; Endurance; Boldness; Truth
Boy/Male
Bengali, Hindu, Indian
Certain; Eternal
Girl/Female
Arabic, Muslim
Stability; Firmness; Certainty; Boldness; Truth; Endurance
Male
Chamoru
, certainly, truly.
Girl/Female
Muslim
Confident, Sure, Certain
Boy/Male
Arabic
Certain; Strong; Firm
Girl/Female
Indian
Confident, Sure, Certain
Surname or Lastname
French
French : nickname from certain ‘certain’, ‘resolute’, a derivative of Old French certise ‘certitude’.English : variant spelling of Sartain, cognate with 1.
Girl/Female
Arabic, Muslim
Certain; Firm
Boy/Male
Indian
Certain
Girl/Female
Tamil
Nischita | நீஸà¯à®šà¯€à®¤à®¾
Certainty, Confidence
Nischita | நீஸà¯à®šà¯€à®¤à®¾
Girl/Female
Tamil
Nischitha | நீஸà¯à®šà¯€à®¤à®¾Â
Certainty, Confidence
Nischitha | நீஸà¯à®šà¯€à®¤à®¾Â
Boy/Male
Indian
Certain
Boy/Male
Hindu, Indian
Certain or for Sure
Boy/Male
Arabic, Muslim
Confident; Sure; Certain
Girl/Female
Spanish
Certain fortune; fate.
Boy/Male
Tamil
The enduring sound, Heaven, Certainly, Eternally
Girl/Female
Hindu
Certainty, Confidence
Girl/Female
Hindu
Certainty, Confidence
CERTAINTY EFFECT
CERTAINTY EFFECT
Girl/Female
Arabic, Muslim
A Gentle Woman
Girl/Female
French, German, Hebrew, Swedish
Pledged to God; House; God's Promise; God is My Oath; Form of Elizabeth
Boy/Male
Tamil
Vrishaparvaa | வà¯à®°à¯€à®·à¯€à®ªà®°à¯à®µ
Lord of Dharma
Boy/Male
Hindu, Indian
Star
Girl/Female
Hindu, Indian
Good Behaviour
Surname or Lastname
English
English : variant of Norrington.
Girl/Female
Irish
Dark.
Surname or Lastname
English (Yorkshire)
English (Yorkshire) : habitational name from a place named with Middle English hard ‘difficult’, ‘inaccessible’, ‘impregnable’, or perhaps ‘cheerless’ + castel ‘castle’, ‘fortress’, ‘stronghold’ (see Castle), perhaps Hardcastle Garth in North Yorkshire or Hardcastle Crags in West Yorkshire, although either or both of these could be from the surname. It has been suggested that the surname may come from a Roman fort forming part of Hadrian’s Wall in northern England.
Surname or Lastname
English
English : variant spelling of Byas.
Boy/Male
Indian
Cute
CERTAINTY EFFECT
CERTAINTY EFFECT
CERTAINTY EFFECT
CERTAINTY EFFECT
CERTAINTY EFFECT
n.
The quality or state of being uncertain.
a.
Unfailing; infallible.
pl.
of Certainty
a.
Fixed or stated; regular; determinate.
n.
A fact or truth unquestionable established.
n.
Certainty.
n.
That which is uncertain; something unknown.
adv.
Certainly.
adv.
In a sure or certain manner; certainly; infallibly; undoubtedly; assuredly.
n.
The quality, state, or condition, of being certain.
a.
Determined; resolved; -- used with an infinitive.
a.
Actually existing; sure to happen; inevitable.
n.
Certainty.
n.
Uncertainty.
n.
Clearness; freedom from ambiguity; lucidity.
a.
Not specifically named; indeterminate; indefinite; one or some; -- sometimes used independenty as a noun, and meaning certain persons.
a.
Not to be doubted or denied; established as a fact.
n.
A certain number or quantity.
adv.
Without doubt or question; unquestionably.
a.
Assured in mind; having no doubts; free from suspicions concerning.