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Human behavior pattern in which the participant takes on increasing risk
Escalation of commitment is a pattern of decision-making in which individuals or groups continue to invest in a chosen course of action despite mounting
Escalation_of_commitment
Concept in conflict studies
model of conflict escalation Escalation of commitment Stability–instability paradox Brams, Steven J.; Kilgour, D. Marc (1987). "Threat Escalation and Crisis
Conflict_escalation
Topics referred to by the same term
evolutionary biology Escalation of commitment, an aspect of game theory Privilege escalation, a computer security process Technological escalation, a technological
Escalation
Simple strategies or mental processes involved in making quick decisions
The general flow of events that causes implementation of the escalation of commitment heuristic are as follows: A large amount of resources is invested
Heuristic_(psychology)
Game illustrating paradox in rational choice theory
[citation needed] All-pay auction Bidding fee auction Escalation of commitment Tragedy of the commons War of attrition (game) Shubik: 1971. Page 109 Augenblick
Dollar_auction
Unexpected incurred costs in excess of budgeted amounts
the escalation of commitment to a course of action. This theory, grounded in social psychology and organisation behaviour, suggests the tendency of people
Cost_overrun
Decrease in severity of conflicts
avoid behaviours that escalate conflict. De-escalation can be modelled with game theory. In psychiatric settings, de-escalation is aimed at calmly communicating
De-escalation
Decision in gambling that will either double one's losses or cancel them out
Modified versions of double or nothing appeared in The $64,000 Question and Who Wants to Be a Millionaire? Escalation of commitment – Human behavior pattern
Double_or_nothing
Unrecoverable cost that has been incurred
PMC 6324799. PMID 30620741. Heath, Chip. "Escalation and de-escalation of commitment in response to sunk costs: The role of budgeting in mental accounting." Organizational
Sunk_cost
Decision rule used for minimizing the possible loss for a worst-case scenario
in the presence of uncertainty. The maximin value is the highest value that the player can be sure to get without knowing the actions of the other players;
Minimax
Concept in game theory
game. 9 out of 12 A, 10 out of 12 B, and 14 out of 16 C wrote "ABC". For the players to claim part of the $100. 36 out of 40 chose $50. 2 of the remainder
Focal_point_(game_theory)
Logical paradox in decision-making theory
The paradox of tolerance is a philosophical concept suggesting that if a society extends tolerance to those who are intolerant, it risks enabling the eventual
Paradox_of_tolerance
Overuse of a shared resource
S2CID 39710673. Rachlin, H.; Green, L. (1972). "Commitment, choice, and self-control". Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior. 17 (1): 15–22. doi:10.1901/jeab
Tragedy_of_the_commons
Standard example in game theory
their own security out of fear of offensive action. Consequently, security-increasing measures can lead to tensions, escalation or conflict with one or
Prisoner's_dilemma
Game theory case weighing own/others' sacrifice
either make a small sacrifice that benefits everybody, or instead wait in hope of benefiting from someone else's sacrifice. One example is a scenario in which
Volunteer's_dilemma
Solution concept of a non-cooperative game
and so forth. The concept of a Nash equilibrium dates back to the time of Cournot, who in 1838 applied it to his model of competition in an oligopoly
Nash_equilibrium
Paper-and-pencil game for two players
other with Os. A player wins when they mark all three spaces of a row, column, or diagonal of the grid, whereupon they traditionally draw a line through
Tic-tac-toe
Project management term
parameters' exceed the norm by at least 50 percent." Boondoggle Escalation of commitment Gold plating (software engineering) Optimism bias Planning fallacy
Death march (project management)
Death_march_(project_management)
Psychology book by Robert Cialdini
profitable to the seller. This pattern of behavior toward or resulting in a negative outcome is called escalation of commitment. People generally look to other
Influence: Science and Practice
Influence:_Science_and_Practice
Hand game for two players or more
played between two people, in which each player simultaneously forms one of three shapes with an outstretched hand. These shapes are "rock" (a closed
Rock_paper_scissors
Conflict between safety and cooperation
social cooperation based on the mathematical payoffs of each option. In the most common account of this dilemma, two hunters must decide separately, and
Stag_hunt
Game whose outcome can be correctly predicted
strategy games, and especially to games with full information and no element of chance; solving such a game may use combinatorial game theory or computer
Solved_game
Search algorithm
of nodes that are evaluated by the minimax algorithm in its search tree. It is an adversarial search algorithm used commonly for machine playing of two-player
Alpha–beta_pruning
English saying meaning "equivalent retaliation"
information or errors in execution), as it prevents accidental conflicts from escalating indefinitely. BitTorrent peers use tit-for-tat strategy to optimize their
Tit_for_tat
Mathematical models of strategic interactions
formation. A game is cooperative if the players are able to form binding commitments externally enforced (e.g. through contract law). A game is non-cooperative
Game_theory
Situation where total gains match total losses
game is a mathematical representation in game theory and economic theory of a situation that involves two competing entities, where the result is an advantage
Zero-sum_game
Gambling strategy where the amount is raised until a person wins or becomes insolvent
gambling that will either double one's losses or cancel them out Escalation of commitment – Human behavior pattern in which the participant takes on increasing
Martingale_(betting_system)
Israeli-American psychologist and economist (1934–2024)
of psychology and public affairs at Princeton University's Princeton School of Public and International Affairs. Kahneman was a founding partner of TGG
Daniel_Kahneman
Problem in process of sharing surplus
division of payoffs to choose. Such surplus-sharing problems (also called bargaining problem) are faced by management and labor in the division of a firm's
Cooperative_bargaining
Facilitating a peaceful outcome to a dispute
Following this idea, researchers encouraged the systematic study of escalation, de-escalation, and non-violent intervention strategies. After World War II
Conflict_resolution
Preference of known risks to unknown risks
individual would rather choose an alternative where the probability distribution of the outcomes is known over one where the probabilities are unknown. This behavior
Ambiguity_aversion
New company developing a novel, scalable business
probability of events based on how easy it is to think of examples. Escalation of commitment: Persist unduly with unsuccessful initiatives or courses of action
Startup_company
Pairing where no unchosen pair prefers each other over their choice
matching problem is the problem of finding a stable matching between two equally sized sets of elements given an ordering of preferences for each element
Stable_matching_problem
Cognitive bias
you some happiness." Dunning–Kruger effect Effort justification Escalation of commitment Omission bias Pygmalion effect Berman, Jillian (26 September 2011)
IKEA_effect
Tendency to overestimate in auctions
optimistic evaluation of the asset and therefore will tend to overestimate and overpay. Accordingly, the winner will be "cursed" in one of two ways: either
Winner's_curse
American economist (born 1950)
an American game theorist, economist and professor at the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University (since 1980). He earned his A.B. from Dartmouth
David_M._Kreps
Finding an optimal algorithm for playing chess
Solving chess consists of finding an optimal strategy for the game of chess; that is, one by which one of the players (White or Black) can always force
Solving_chess
Game theory scenario
Green & Co., 1924) forms the basis of what we now refer to as the idea of "win-win" conflict resolution. An example of a win-win scenario is trade, since
Win–win_game
Israeli psychologist (1937–1996)
discovery of systematic human cognitive bias and handling of risk. Much of his early work concerned the foundations of measurement. He was co-author of a three-volume
Amos_Tversky
Hungarian and American mathematician and physicist (1903–1957)
began, he became extremely busy with both academic and military commitments. His habit of not writing up talks or publishing results worsened. He did not
John_von_Neumann
Diplomatic policy of concessions
Nationalist faction (Germany and Italy) could not have broken a non-binding commitment, and they walked out at least once. The Republic was not even allowed
Appeasement
Dollar Auction Game: A Paradox in Noncooperative Behavior and Escalation," The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 15, 1, 1971, 109–111. Sinervo, B., and Lively
List_of_games_in_game_theory
Hand game for two or more players
a number of fingers from each hand and transfer those scores by taking turns tapping one hand against another. Chopsticks is an example of a combinatorial
Chopsticks_(hand_game)
Theorem in game theory
introduced the formal, set-theoretic definition of common knowledge. The model of Aumann considers a finite set of states S {\displaystyle S} drawn according
Aumann's_agreement_theorem
Simple mathematical game
game. It is a multi-player version of the ultimatum game. There are five rational pirates (in strict decreasing order of seniority A, B, C, D and E) who
Pirate_game
Poker game developed by Harold Kuhn
Kuhn poker is a simplified form of poker developed by Harold W. Kuhn as a simple model zero-sum two-player imperfect-information game, amenable to a complete
Kuhn_poker
Aspect of decision and prospect theories
reducing loss prediction signalling. Equity premium puzzle Escalation of commitment List of cognitive biases Prospect theory Revanchism Risk aversion Status
Loss_aversion
Game theory concept
equilibrium (SPE), or subgame perfect Nash equilibrium (SPNE), is a refinement of the Nash equilibrium concept, specifically designed for dynamic games where
Subgame_perfect_equilibrium
Model of conflict for two players in game theory
is a model of escalation, and addresses the question of when ought an individual escalate to dangerously costly physical combat. The war of attrition seeks
Chicken_(game)
Concept in game theory
(solution concept) for fairly distributing the total gains or costs among a group of players who have collaborated. For example, in a team project where each member
Shapley_value
Condition in economics and game theory
have knowledge of all relevant information in the system. This is different than complete information, which implies common knowledge of each agent's utility
Perfect_information
Level of information in economics and game theory
by consideration of arms control negotiations, where the players may be uncertain both of the capabilities of their opponents and of their desires and
Complete_information
Adage
later. Escalation of commitment – Human behavior pattern in which the participant takes on increasing risk Gresham's law – Monetary principle List of proverbial
Law_of_holes
Cost of maintaining a low quality system
management Code smell – Characteristic of source code that hints at a quality problem Escalation of commitment – Human behavior pattern in which the participant
Technical_debt
Transactional view of violent conflict in international relations theory
due to uncertainty and commitment problems. As a result, provision of reliable information and steps to alleviate commitment problems make war less likely
Bargaining_model_of_war
Notion in combinatorial game theory
(the number of legal game positions from the initial position) Game tree size (total number of possible games) Decision complexity (number of leaf nodes
Game_complexity
Freely made decision designed and intended to bind oneself in the future
Decision theory Greek mythology Escalation of commitment Ryan Spellecy (2003). "Reviving Ulysses contracts". Kennedy Institute of Ethics Journal. 13 (4): 373–392
Ulysses_pact
Situation where all parties are worse off
standpoint of a party or multiple parties, cannot result in success. This may be an unwinnable state for one actor or a lose–lose situation, an outcome of a negotiation
No-win_situation
Model of humans as rational, self-interested agents
that people can give credible commitments to a course of conduct. He demonstrates the absurdity with the narrowness of the assumptions by some economists
Homo_economicus
Military strategy during the Cold War with regard to the use of nuclear weapons
imposition of costs on the adversary Norms: the establishment and maintenance of norms that establish appropriate standards of behavior Escalation: raising
Deterrence_theory
Simple game studied in game theory
because each participant's gain or loss of utility is exactly balanced by the losses or gains of the utility of the other participants. If the participants'
Matching_pennies
Variation of minimax game tree search
Negamax search is a variant form of minimax search that relies on the zero-sum property of a two-player game. This algorithm relies on the fact that
Negamax
Expensive object that cannot be disposed of
elephant gift exchange Hills Like White Elephants Bridge to nowhere Escalation of commitment (sunk cost fallacy) Pork barrel Abul-Abbas Boondoggle Gadgetbahn
White_elephant
Academic discipline
Quantum entanglement of initial states, Superposition of strategies to be used on the initial states. This theory is based on the physics of information much
Quantum_game_theory
Topics referred to by the same term
"Stop-Loss" (Dollhouse), an episode of the TV series Dollhouse Escalation of commitment This disambiguation page lists articles associated with the title
Stop-loss
Solution concept in game theory
assumed to make errors in choosing which pure strategy to play. The probability of any particular strategy being chosen is positively related to the payoff from
Quantal_response_equilibrium
Neologism for cooperative competition
the 1944 book Theory of Games and Economic Behavior by John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern, and further developed in the work of John Forbes Nash. The
Coopetition
Argument in combinatorial game theory
applies to any symmetric game (one in which either player has the same set of available moves with the same results, so that the first player can "use"
Strategy-stealing_argument
Economic model of competition
Bertrand competition is a model of competition used in economics, named after Joseph Louis François Bertrand (1822–1900). It describes interactions among
Bertrand_competition
Problem in game theory
crowded. If less than 60% of the population go to the bar, they'll all have more fun than if they stayed home. If more than 60% of the population go to the
El_Farol_Bar_problem
In board games that cannot end in a draw, one of the two players has a winning strategy
game theory, Zermelo's theorem is a theorem about finite two-person games of perfect information in which the players move alternately and in which chance
Zermelo's theorem (game theory)
Zermelo's_theorem_(game_theory)
Beliefs accepted by members of a group without question
Theology of theoretical official truths Eclecticism – Conceptual approach that draws upon multiple theories, styles, or ideas Escalation of commitment – Human
Dogma
Dynamical system
the replicator equation is a type of dynamical system used in evolutionary game theory to model how the frequency of strategies in a population changes
Replicator_equation
object than they would be willing to pay to acquire it. Escalation of commitment, irrational escalation, or sunk cost fallacy, where people justify increased
List_of_cognitive_biases
Hungarian-American economist and philosopher (1920–2000)
Hungarian-American economist who spent most of his career at the University of California, Berkeley. He was the recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic
John_Harsanyi
Concept in game theory
Russian-born American economist Leonid Hurwicz. There are several different degrees of incentive-compatibility: The stronger degree is dominant-strategy incentive-compatibility
Incentive_compatibility
Resource distribution game
A Colonel Blotto game is a type of two-person constant sum game in which the players (officers) are tasked to simultaneously distribute limited resources
Blotto_game
Proof all ranked voting rules have spoilers
orderings of different alternatives) can satisfy the requirements of rational choice. Specifically, no such rule can satisfy independence of irrelevant
Arrow's_impossibility_theorem
Project management issue
Anti-pattern Cost overrun Scope (project management) Planning poker Escalation of commitment Instruction creep Mission creep The Mythical Man-Month Second-system
Scope_creep
Two-player coordination game in game theory
In game theory, the battle of the sexes is a two-player coordination game that also involves elements of conflict. The game was introduced in 1957 by
Battle of the sexes (game theory)
Battle_of_the_sexes_(game_theory)
Israeli-American mathematician (born 1930)
member of the United States National Academy of Sciences. He is a professor at the Center for the Study of Rationality in the Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Robert_Aumann
Trigger strategy
remainder of the iterated game. Since a single defect by the opponent triggers defection forever, grim trigger is the most strictly unforgiving of strategies
Grim_trigger
Concept in game theory involving long-term strategic planning
farsightness refers to players’ ability to consider the long-term consequences of their strategies, beyond immediate payoffs, often formalized as farsighted
Farsightedness_(game_theory)
Social trend
Psychological phenomenon Effort justification – Overvaluing of effortful achievements Escalation of commitment – Human behavior pattern in which the participant
Workism
Simultaneous game found in game theory
type of simultaneous game found in game theory. It describes the situation where a player will earn a higher payoff when they select the same course of action
Coordination_game
How a person justifies their own beliefs when encountering cognitive dissonance
Psychological Reports, 38(1), 135-140. Staw, B. M. (1981). The escalation of commitment to a course of action. Academy of management Review, 6(4), 577–587.
Self-justification
Class of games where players choose their actions sequentially
complexity—from the compact tree of tic-tac-toe to the vast, unmappable tree of chess. Decision trees, the extensive form of sequential games, provide a detailed
Sequential_game
English mathematician and game theorist (born 1940)
Emeritus of Economics at University College London (UCL) and a Visiting Emeritus Professor of Economics at the University of Bristol. As a founder of modern
Kenneth_Binmore
Concept in game theory
for each player from the set of opponent strategy profiles into the set of the player's strategies. So, for any given set of opponent's strategies σ−i,
Best_response
Incomplete-information coordination game
In game theory, the electronic mail game is an example of an "almost common knowledge" incomplete information game. It illustrates the apparently paradoxical
Electronic_mail_game
American computer scientist and mathematician
Jennifer Tour Chayes is dean of the college of computing, data science, and society at the University of California, Berkeley. Before joining Berkeley
Jennifer_Tour_Chayes
Branch of game theory about two-player sequential games with perfect information
Combinatorial game theory is a branch of mathematics and theoretical computer science that typically studies sequential games with perfect information
Combinatorial_game_theory
Economic phenomenon
The tyranny of small decisions is a phenomenon in which a number of decisions, individually small and insignificant in size and time perspective, cumulatively
Tyranny_of_small_decisions
Game-theoretic concept
framework between players where messages do not directly affect the payoffs of the game. Providing and receiving information is free. This is in contrast
Cheap_talk
Complete plan on how a game player will behave in every possible game situation
one of the options which a player can choose in a setting where the optimal outcome depends not only on their own actions but also on the actions of others
Strategy_(game_theory)
American economist (born 1939)
emeritus at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, where he continues to teach courses on microeconomics and the theory of institutions. His work is
Samuel_Bowles_(economist)
Game theory concept
"Defense and security planning under resource uncertainty and multi-period commitments". Naval Research Logistics. 69 (7): 1009–1026. doi:10.1002/nav.22071
Bayesian_game
Solution concept in Game Theory
equilibrium is a solution concept for static games of incomplete information. It is a generalization of the usual Bayesian Nash equilibrium, allowing for
Cursed_equilibrium
Mathematical construct in game theory
The hierarchy of beliefs is a mathematical construct in game theory used to model incomplete information situations, where players are uncertain about
Hierarchy_of_beliefs
Concept in economics and game theory
Price of Anarchy (PoA) is a concept in economics and game theory that measures how the efficiency of a system degrades due to selfish behavior of its agents
Price_of_anarchy
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ESCALATION OF-COMMITMENT
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