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Type of cognitive bias
Optimism bias is the tendency of an individual to overestimate the likelihood of positive events and underestimate that of negative events. A cognitive
Optimism_bias
Positive mental attitude
(2006). Learned Optimism: How to Change Your Mind and Your Life. Vintage. ISBN 1-4000-7839-3. Sharot, Tali (2012). The Optimism Bias: Why We're Wired
Optimism
mental states. Naïve cynicism, expecting more egocentric bias in others than in oneself. Optimism bias: The tendency to be over-optimistic, underestimating
List_of_cognitive_biases
Tendency to remember pleasant things better
Confirmation bias Depressive realism Illusory superiority List of biases in judgment and decision making List of memory biases Optimism bias Overconfidence
Pollyanna_principle
Process to choose a course of action
decision-making depending if the situation entails a threat or opportunity. Optimism bias is a tendency to overestimate the likelihood of positive events occurring
Decision-making
Cognitive neuroscientist
underpinnings of human optimism, work that has been published in numerous eminent journals. In her books The Optimism Bias and The Science of Optimism, she describes
Tali_Sharot
Systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment
cognitive biases Mistaken perception of romance in non-romantic relationships Magical thinking – Belief in the connection of unrelated events Optimism bias –
Cognitive_bias
Disbelief or minimization in response to threat warnings
Normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a cognitive bias which leads people to disbelieve or minimize threat warnings. Consequently, individuals underestimate
Normalcy_bias
Probabilistic or statistical property of the forecast error
Calculating demand forecast accuracy Consensus forecast Optimism bias Demand forecasting Exponential growth bias Forecast skill APICS Dictionary 12th Edition, American
Forecast_bias
Cognitive bias of underestimating time needed
about how much time will be needed to complete a future task display an optimism bias and underestimate the time needed. This phenomenon sometimes occurs
Planning_fallacy
Unrecoverable cost that has been incurred
Behavioural Insights Team (July 2017). "A review of optimism bias, planning fallacy, sunk cost bias and groupthink in project delivery and organisational
Sunk_cost
Method of predicting the future
schedules and expected benefits. This measurable approach reduces optimism bias and supports more accountable planning decisions. The first instance
Reference_class_forecasting
Distortion to enhance self-esteem, or to see oneself overly favorably
Illusory superiority List of cognitive biases Marking your own homework Moral hazard Narcissism Omission bias Optimism bias Overconfidence effect Positive illusions
Self-serving_bias
Personal cognitive bias
placed where it is not respected or to an unworthy cause Optimism bias – Type of cognitive bias Depressive realism – Hypothesis about depression Intellectual
Overconfidence_effect
Formation of beliefs based on what might be pleasing to imagine
neural circuitry, human cognition and emotion, types of bias, procrastination, motivation, optimism, attention and environment. This concept has been examined
Wishful_thinking
False belief in an ability to control events
behavior and belief in the paranormal. Along with illusory superiority and optimism bias, the illusion of control is one of the positive illusions. The illusion
Illusion_of_control
Reduction of the negative effects of cognitive biases
in which cognitive bias mitigation is an explicit goal are rare. One 1980 study explored the notion of reducing the optimism bias by showing subjects
Cognitive_bias_mitigation
Study of human behavior and cognitive factors in information security
usable security and cyberpsychology. For example, psychologists consider optimism bias, hyperbolic discounting, and behavioral economics as factors in people's
Psychology_in_cybersecurity
Adage referring to time estimates
Ninety–ninety rule – Humorous aphorism in computer programming Optimism bias – Type of cognitive bias Parkinson's law – Adage that work expands to fill its available
Hofstadter's_law
Statistical property
Loss function Minimum-variance unbiased estimator Omitted-variable bias Optimism bias Ratio estimator Statistical decision theory "For the binomial distribution
Bias_of_an_estimator
Israeli-American psychologist and economist (1934–2024)
Base rate fallacy Cognitive bias Conjunction fallacy Dictator game Framing (social sciences) Loss aversion Optimism bias Planning fallacy Prospect theory
Daniel_Kahneman
Medical term for the likely development of a disease
or disorder Nocebo – Harmful effect from negative belief Optimism bias – Type of cognitive bias Placebo (origins of technical term) – Substance or treatment
Prognosis
Cognitive bias about one's own skill
The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias that describes the systematic tendency of people with low ability in a specific area to give overly positive
Dunning–Kruger_effect
Construct in psychology
Hedonic treadmill Illusion of control List of cognitive biases Magical thinking Optimism and optimism bias Rational expectations Rat race Self-deception Smiley
Toxic_positivity
Effort optimism is the confidence that acquiring the skills valued by the majority of society, such as those skills measured by IQ tests, ACT, and SATs
Effort_optimism
Unexpected incurred costs in excess of budgeted amounts
data, etc. Psychological explanations account for overrun in terms of optimism bias with forecasters. Scope creep, where the requirements or targets rises
Cost_overrun
Bias towards a political side in supposedly-objective information
Political bias refers to the bias or manipulation of information to favor a particular political position, party, or candidate. Closely associated with
Political_bias
Topics referred to by the same term
this sense means "eventful" as opposed to "uneventful" Unrealistic optimism, a bias in prediction in which people overestimate the probability of good
Positive_outcome_bias
Cognitive bias
cognitive illusions—illusory superiority, illusion of control, and optimism bias. This idea rapidly became very influential, with some authorities concluding
Illusory_superiority
Inclination for or against
Bias is a disproportionate weight in favor of or against an idea or thing, usually in a way that is inaccurate, closed-minded, prejudicial, or unfair.
Bias
Project management term
Boondoggle Escalation of commitment Gold plating (software engineering) Optimism bias Planning fallacy Software Peter principle Shturmovshchina Wishful thinking
Death march (project management)
Death_march_(project_management)
Systematic errors made when people evaluate their own and others' behaviors
projection Self-serving bias Trait ascription bias Ultimate attribution error Unrealistic optimism Hostile attribution bias Psychology portal Theory
Attribution_bias
Intrinsic goodness or badness of an emotion, event, object, or situation
negative valence and the opposite of this is pleasure or happiness. Optimism bias Sentiment analysis Vedanā Nico H. Frijda, The Emotions. Cambridge(UK):
Valence_(psychology)
Disproportionate favor towards the past
retrieve data Nostalgia – Sentimental longing for the past Optimism bias – Type of cognitive bias Pollyanna principle – Tendency to remember pleasant things
Rosy_retrospection
Exposure to risk of harm
K.; Hill, Patrick L. (April 16, 2009). "Subjective invulnerability, optimism bias and adjustment in emerging adulthood". Journal of Youth and Adolescence
Vulnerability
2006 book by David Benatar
due to a range of cognitive biases, many of which he considers to be evolutionarily ingrained. He cites the optimism bias, the tendency to recall positive
Better_Never_to_Have_Been
Informal fallacy in comparing actualities with ideals
worse problems Cutting off the nose to spite the face Emotional memory Optimism bias Perfect is the enemy of good Politician's syllogism Pollyanna principle
Nirvana_fallacy
American social psychologist and writer
people put magnets on walls marked "Past" and "Future" to illustrate the optimism bias. Gilbert, Daniel (2006). Stumbling on Happiness. New York, NY: Knopf
Daniel_Gilbert_(psychologist)
Process by which individuals explain causes of behavior and events
building a safer, stronger house. Another example of attributional bias is optimism bias in which most people believe positive events happen to them more
Attribution_(psychology)
Argument against surveillance
National security – Security and defence of a nation state Optimism bias – Type of cognitive bias Right to privacy – Legal tradition restraining actions threatening
Nothing_to_hide_argument
When the actual benefits of a venture are less than the projected or estimated benefits
misrepresentation during project appraisal. Economic research has identified optimism bias—where planners systematically overestimate benefits and underestimate
Benefit_shortfall
Proposed ideological bundle
Duran wrote that "TESCREAL", "authoritarian technocracy", and "techno-optimism" were phrases used in early 2024 to describe a new ideology emerging in
TESCREAL
Evaluation of one's financial state
project. This process is called aggregation. Budget Capital budgeting Optimism bias Personal budget Reference class forecasting "Financial Plan Definition"
Financial_plan
Practice of regarding cost in engineering projects
contract International Cost Engineering Council Moral hazard Muntzing Optimism bias Pre-construction services Project management Quantity surveyor Reference
Cost_engineering
is related to optimism bias. This is the belief that the patient will beat the odds, no matter how unlikely this might be. Optimism bias encourages patients
Interventionism_(medicine)
Document providing reasoning for a project
benefits. Business plan Project charter Case competition Innovation Optimism bias Planning fallacy Reference class forecasting Win–win game Project Management
Business_case
Psychological and financial strategy
guarantees the bettor one positive outcome, it is rarely observed. Optimism bias, in which the probability of a positive outcome is overestimated by
Emotional_hedge
Cognitive heuristic of searching for an acceptable decision
Decision theory Flipism Frame problem Homo economicus Optimal stopping Optimism bias Overchoice Perfect is the enemy of good Portmanteau Principle of good
Satisficing
Mindset for protecting organizational assets
security measures. Research indicates that psychological factors, such as optimism bias, overconfidence, and habitual behaviors, can undermine security awareness
Security_awareness
Inherent tendency of a process to support particular outcomes
Week reported in May 2008: But we travel in a world with a systemic bias to optimism that typically chooses to avoid the topic of the impending bursting
Systemic_bias
Extremely large-scale construction and investment project
megaprojects Macro-engineering Megastructure Reference class forecasting Optimism bias Gigantomania Megaprojects and Risk When Technology Fails Alan Altshuler
Megaproject
Israeli politician (born 1970)
simple and convincing argument." He points out her argument of the "optimism bias" that leads many people to see the flaws in the existing system and
Einat_Wilf
Negative mental attitude
Doomerism Dystopia Fatalism Mood Murphy's law Neuroticism Nihilism Optimism Optimism bias Paranoia Toxic positivity Whig history Bennett, Oliver (2001). Cultural
Pessimism
Analysis of the risks and potential benefits of an action
risk–benefit ratio. Benefit shortfall Cost–benefit analysis Odds algorithm Optimism bias Reference class forecasting "Risk-Benefit Analysis". Capita.wustl.edu
Risk–benefit_ratio
Environment protection movement
Earth Optimism is a movement promoting a positive outlook towards problems related to environmental or climate issues. Earth Optimism provides an alternative
Earth_Optimism
Anchoring bias have been identified for estimation and the reuse of ideas. There is an optimism bias applies to work being carried out.Availability bias can
Psychology_of_programming
Product design with limited useful life
Consumer Purchase Decisions: The Effects of Cognitive Biases: Bandwagon Effect, Optimism Bias and Present Bias on Consumer Behavior (PDF) (Master's thesis). Escola
Planned_obsolescence
Planning-oriented discipline
design Design fiction Forecasting Foresight (future studies) Futurology Optimism bias Reference class forecasting Science fiction prototyping Strategic Foresight
Strategic_foresight
Cognitive bias preferring things close in space and time
Proximity bias refers to the cognitive bias that people have a preference for things that are close in time and space. The common proverb, out of sight
Proximity_bias
British psychologist, author and broadcaster
conditions. Dispositional optimism also seems to affect visual attention to climate change images and this links to optimism bias (He presented this research
Geoffrey_Beattie
Predicting the future of technology
technologies – New technologies actively in development Optimism bias – Type of cognitive bias Reference class forecasting – Method of predicting the future
Technology_forecasting
Unrealistically favorable attitudes
environmental circumstances such as the roll of dice or flip of coin. Optimism bias is a tendency for people to overestimate their likelihood of experiencing
Positive_illusions
Economics concept
Lucas aggregate supply function Lucas critique Lucas island model Optimism Optimism bias Perfectionism Permanent income hypothesis Rationality The Peter
Rational_expectations
Term referring to various activities in futurology
Emerging technologies Foresight Institute Forecasting Horizon scanning Optimism bias Reference class forecasting Scenario planning Strategic foresight Strategic
Foresight_(futures_studies)
these kinds of errors. Psychologically, different cognitive biases (e.g., optimism bias) may affect novices and experts alike and lead them to skip these
Comparison of programming languages
Comparison_of_programming_languages
Formal written document containing the goals of a business
Motivation Model Cost-benefit analysis Entrepreneurship Financial accounting Optimism bias Parkinson's Law of Triviality Revenue shortfall "Business Plan Definition
Business_plan
Cognitive bias
S2CID 8972938. Menon, G.; Kyung, E.; Agrawal, N. (2008). "Biases in social comparisons: Optimism or pessimism?". Organizational Behavior and Human Decision
Social_comparison_bias
Economics theory
puzzle Investor profile Loss aversion Marginal utility Neuroeconomics Optimism bias Problem gambling, a contrary behavior Prudence in economics and finance
Risk_aversion
South African philosopher (born 1966)
which affect everyone to focus on specific differences. And due to our optimism bias, we mostly compare ourselves to those worse off, to overestimate the
David_Benatar
Type of bias in epidemiology
Length time bias (or length bias) is an overestimation of survival duration due to the relative excess of cases detected that are asymptomatically slowly
Length_time_bias
Business methods and processes
31000 Market risk and strategic planning Operational risk management Optimism bias Risk Risk accounting Risk adjusted return on capital Risk appetite Risk
Enterprise_risk_management
Estimations of customer demand
inventory proportionality Reference class forecasting Consensus forecasts Optimism bias Production budget Volume risk Marien, E. J., Demand Planning and Sales
Demand_forecasting
Common expression regarding optimism or pessimism
popularize it, a variant regarding a car's gas tank occurs in print with the optimism/pessimism connotations as early as 1929, and the glass-with-water version
Is the glass half empty or half full?
Is_the_glass_half_empty_or_half_full?
Exercising systematic anticipatory thinking skills
management Futures techniques Key risk indicator (KRI) Operational risk Optimism bias Risk Risk management Risk management tools Solvency II Tactical Risk
Operational_risk_management
Human emotional need
Health-related embarrassment Hubris Inner critic Invisible support Law of Jante Optimism bias Outline of self Overconfidence effect Passiveness Self-affirmation Self-enhancement
Self-esteem
Bias towards recently acquired information
The availability heuristic, also known as availability bias, is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a given person's mind
Availability_heuristic
Observation tower in Brighton, England
"proved (to be) overly ambitious (and the) business plan demonstrated optimism bias". The report highlighted the poor decision-making in comparing the proposed
Brighton_i360
Identification and evaluation of risks
a larger portfolio management problem. Business portal Benefit risk Optimism bias Reference class forecasting Extreme risk Risk management Peren–Clement
Risk_analysis_(business)
Estimation of future use of some transport infrastructure
shape it as well. Air traffic control Journal of Transport and Land Use Optimism bias Reference class forecasting Road traffic control Traffic bottleneck
Transportation_forecasting
Psychological theory of self-esteem
evaluation Identity Inner critic Invisible support List of confidence tricks Optimism bias Outline of self Overconfidence effect Passiveness Performance anxiety
Sociometer
not seem to do uncertainty, undervaluing of distant or future risk, optimism bias, the belief that an individual can do nothing against climate change
Psychology of climate change denial
Psychology_of_climate_change_denial
Form of cognitive bias
The illusion of explanatory depth (IOED) is cognitive bias or an illusion where people tend to believe they understand a topic better than they actually
Illusion_of_explanatory_depth
rise such as in Florida. Abandonment cost Normalcy bias Optimism bias Ostrich effect Pro-innovation bias Semmelweis reflex Sunk cost fallacy "Association
Psychology of previous investment
Psychology_of_previous_investment
Making predictions with available data
bias Foresight (future studies) Frequency spectrum Futures studies Futurology Kondratiev wave Least squares Least-squares spectral analysis Optimism bias
Forecasting
Reduction of bias
projects with the explicit purpose of eliminating optimism bias. Cognitive bias mitigation Cognitive bias modification Cognitive vulnerability Reference
Debiasing
Tollway in Melbourne, Australia
experience as a reviewer confirmed my long-held suspicions of substantial 'optimism bias' in the appraisal process". In addition, some argue that the West Gate
West_Gate_Tunnel
History of a philosophical school
realism Dystheism Dystopia Misanthropy Misotheism Negative utilitarianism Optimism bias Philosophical pessimism Philosophy of suicide Radical evil Right to
History of philosophical pessimism
History_of_philosophical_pessimism
Identification, evaluation and control of risks
Framework Loss-control consultant Moral hazard National Safety Council, USA Optimism bias Pest risk analysis Precautionary principle Redundancy (engineering)
Risk_management
Furthermore, he also demonstrated that 60% of projects are prone to optimism bias. Furthermore, Ika examined the causes of cost overruns in transport
Lavagnon_Ika
Any of various types of risk associated with financing
portfolio theory – Mathematical framework for investment risk Optimism bias – Type of cognitive bias Reinvestment risk – Form of financial risk primarily associated
Financial_risk
Belief that innovation should be adopted by the society without the need for alterations
In diffusion of innovation theory, a pro-innovation bias is a belief that innovation should be adopted by the whole society without the need for its alteration
Pro-innovation_bias
statistics Forecasting Forecasting accuracy Mean squared prediction error Optimism bias Reference class forecasting 2.5 Evaluating forecast accuracy | OTexts
Forecast_error
Possible nuclear power industry revival
escalated dramatically, and the project is also well behind schedule. The initial low cost forecasts for these megaprojects exhibited "optimism bias".
Nuclear_renaissance
Futures studies lessons learned methods
assessment Forecasting Foresight Futures studies Morphological analysis Optimism bias Planning Prediction Prediction market Reference class forecasting Science
Futures_techniques
value of infiltration or U-Values of walls and windows. There may be optimism bias by designers, where expectations about what is possible on site are
Performance_gap
Perceived risk of mitigated dangers
their breaking point until it is too late to take action. In over-optimism and normalcy bias, people believe that disasters will happen elsewhere, and even
Preparedness_paradox
Overview of and topical guide to futures studies
Memetics Moore's law Morphological analysis Neo-futurism Omega Point Optimism bias Planetary phase of civilization Planning Potential cultural impact of
Outline_of_futures_studies
American science documentary television series
to over-estimate positive outcomes. Sharot has written her book The Optimism Bias to explore this optimistic outlook. The holographic principle states
Through_the_Wormhole
Processing personal/social information
their beliefs in response to new information or experiences where their biases cause them to arrive at desired conclusions. While most people may be more
Motivated_reasoning
Process of planning for movement of people and goods
September 2007 at the Wayback Machine "Green Book supplementary guidance: optimism bias". HM Treasury. 21 April 2013. Retrieved 27 January 2014. State of Maryland
Transportation_planning
travel, tourism, insurance
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