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Predicting someone's future emotions (affect)
Affective forecasting, also known as hedonic forecasting or the hedonic forecasting mechanism, is the prediction of one's affect (emotional state) in the
Affective_forecasting
Psychological bias in predicting future emotion
In the psychology of affective forecasting, the impact bias, a form of which is the durability bias, is the tendency for people to overestimate the length
Impact_bias
Generation and evaluation of mental representations of possible futures
psychological phenomena, including the prediction of future emotion (affective forecasting), the imagination of future scenarios (episodic foresight), and
Prospection
happiness would improve with higher income. Moreover, studies on affective forecasting have repeatedly shown that people tend to overestimate both the
Focusing_illusion
Psychological phenomenon
(2013). "HED: A Computational Model of Affective Adaptation and Emotion Dynamics". IEEE Transactions on Affective Computing. 4 (2): 197–210. doi:10.1109/T-AFFC
Region-beta_paradox
Israeli-American psychologist and economist (1934–2024)
remembered and predicted utility. Predicted utility (better known as affective forecasting) is the predicted experienced utility for a future experience. Remembered
Daniel_Kahneman
American social psychologist and writer
his research with Timothy Wilson of the University of Virginia on affective forecasting. He is the author of the international bestseller Stumbling on Happiness
Daniel_Gilbert_(psychologist)
Conscious subjective experience
Emotion focusing on emotions related to globalization Affect measures Affective forecasting Affective neuroscience Coping Emotion and memory Emotion Review
Emotion
Cognitive bias
state arises. Psychology portal Society portal Philosophy portal Affective forecasting Curse of knowledge Dual process theory Impact bias List of cognitive
Hot-cold_empathy_gap
Positive emotional state
Studies show that memories of felt emotions can be inaccurate. Affective forecasting research shows that people are poor predictors of their future emotions
Happiness
Making predictions with available data
Telecommunications forecasting Transport planning and forecasting Weather forecasting, flood forecasting and meteorology In several cases, the forecast is either
Forecasting
American social psychologist and writer
for his research on the adaptive unconscious, self-knowledge, and affective forecasting. With Richard Nisbett, Wilson authored one of psychology's most
Timothy_Wilson
Cognitive bias of underestimating time needed
Axsom, Danny (2000). "Focalism: A source of durability bias in affective forecasting". Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 78 (5): 821–836
Planning_fallacy
Interdisciplinary field of study
altruism, psychological egoism, moral luck, moral forecasting, moral emotion, affective forecasting, and moral disagreement. Today, moral psychology is
Moral_psychology
Gigerenzer, bounded rationality Daniel Gilbert, (Social psychology, Affective forecasting) Gustave Gilbert Carol Gilligan Fernand Gobet, cognitive psychology
List_of_psychologists
Estimations of customer demand
Demand forecasting, also known as demand planning and sales forecasting (DP&SF), involves the prediction of the quantity of goods and services that will
Demand_forecasting
Process of making predictions about the economy
Economic forecasting is the process of making predictions about the economy. Forecasts can be made at a high level of aggregation—for example, for GDP
Economic_forecasting
Concept in psychology and communication studies
that consist of affective and cognitive nodes. By activating an affective or emotion node, attitude change may be possible, though affective and cognitive
Attitude_(psychology)
Breakdown in empathy
are related to the psychological concepts of affective forecasting and temporal discounting. Both affective and cognitive empathy gaps can occur due to
Empathy_gap
depending on their delay, involving hyperbolic discounting and affective forecasting. These effects are then connected to anticipated emotions as the
Emotions_in_decision-making
Cognitive bias
pleasant and unpleasant experiences. It is considered a component of affective forecasting, and has practical implications for medicine, consumer behaviour
Duration_neglect
Understanding of one's own basic needs and motives
have three primary aspects: The cognitive self The affective self The executive self The affective and executive selves are also known as the felt and
Self-knowledge_(psychology)
American educator and economist (born 1955)
especially known for his work regarding intertemporal choice and affective forecasting.[citation needed] Hot-cold empathy gaps are one of Loewenstein's
George_Loewenstein
Termination of an intimate relationship
distress following romantic breakup: Revealing the time course of the affective forecasting error". Journal of Experimental Social Psychology. 44 (3): 800–807
Breakup
False consensus due to communication failure Affective forecasting – Predicting someone's future emotions (affect) Anecdotal evidence – Evidence relying on
List_of_cognitive_biases
School in Cambridge, Massachusetts, US
psychology, Daniel Gilbert has developed the notion of affective forecasting to predict one's affect in the future and fundamental attribution error. Ellen
Department of Psychology (Harvard University)
Department_of_Psychology_(Harvard_University)
Short-term state of the atmosphere
History of Weather Forecasting. Archived 3 May 2007 at the Wayback Machine Retrieved on 15 April 2007. NASA. Weather Forecasting Through the Ages. Archived
Weather
Concept in psychology
542–559). New York: Guilford Press. Loewenstein, G. (2007). Affect regulation and affective forecasting. In J. J. Gross (Ed.), Handbook of Emotion Regulation
Emotional_self-regulation
Aspect of decision and prospect theories
E.; Wilson, T. D.; Gilbert, D. T. (2006). "Loss aversion is an affective forecasting error". Psychological Science. 17 (8): 649–653. CiteSeerX 10.1.1
Loss_aversion
Capacity to mentally reconstruct personal events from the past
These functions include predicting future emotional reactions (affective forecasting), deliberate practice, intertemporal choice, navigation, prospective
Mental_time_travel
Diagnostic framework in personalized psychiatry
components that may span multiple disorders (e.g., executive functioning, affect regulation, person perception) and that are more amenable to neuroscience
Research_Domain_Criteria
Theory of change of associated beliefs and behaviours
single node. Thus, by activating an affective or emotional node, attitude change may be possible, though affective and cognitive components tend to be
Attitude_change
Exclusion of someone from social relations
social exclusion on physical pain tolerance and pain threshold, affective forecasting, and interpersonal empathy". Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
Social_rejection
Well-being measurement
determining overall happiness. Incorporated under the umbrella term “Affective forecasting”, it is argued that having attention problems such as mistaken beliefs
Life_satisfaction
Movement or motivation to help others
the moment) from distal compassion (i.e. predicting the future; affective forecasting): "...it has implications in terms of how we go about encouraging
Compassion
Study of how people reason
they are making inferences about the future. Researchers suggest affective forecasting, the ability to predict one's own emotions, is poor because people
Psychology_of_reasoning
Advanced Placement Psychology Affect Affect display Affectional bond Affectional orientation Affective forecasting Affective science Affirming the consequent
Index_of_psychology_articles
Predicting the outcomes of elections
Political forecasting aims at forecasting the outcomes of political events. Political events can be a number of events such as diplomatic decisions, actions
Political_forecasting
Canadian philosopher
implications of introspection illusion, the adaptive unconscious, affective forecasting, and their implications for modern ethical theory. Deliberation
Valerie_Tiberius
Cognitive processing, either influenced or not
process in the face of risky-choices (gambling tasks). Arousal Affective forecasting Hot-cold empathy gap Valence (psychology) Brand, A. G. (1985–1986)
Hot_and_cold_cognition
Psychology topic
end of the experience. Such findings help explain human error in affective forecasting – people's ability to predict their future emotional states. Humans
Well-being contributing factors
Well-being_contributing_factors
Deciding between multiple options
Daniel T., Ebert, Jane E. J. (2002). Decisions and revisions: The affective forecasting of changeable outcomes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
Choice
Surf forecasting is the process of using offshore swell data to predict onshore wave conditions. It is used by millions of people across the world, including
Surf_forecasting
Emotional concept
affect in hedonic theory. Negativity bias Hedonic treadmill Positive psychology Emotion regulation Approach–avoidance conflict Affective forecasting Consumer
Hedonic_asymmetry
Study of happiness and quality of life
happiness state before becoming disabled.[clarification needed] Affective forecasting Broad measures of economic progress Common Good Economics Disability-adjusted
Happiness_economics
Psychological heuristic
best game they could remember, as evidenced by their subsequent affective forecasts. This bias for more intense emotional experiences is evident in nostalgic
Peak–end_rule
Type of motivation
T. P. (1998), "Immune neglect: A source of durability bias in affective forecasting", Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 75 (3): 617–638
Self-enhancement
Interactive forecasting method
systematic, interactive forecasting method that relies on a panel of experts. Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages
Delphi_method
U.S. forecasting agency of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
a scientific basis for forecasting. While a debate went on between the Signal Service and Congress over whether the forecasting of weather conditions should
National_Weather_Service
Ability of recognizing emotions in others
and reaction times. Affect measures Affective computing Affective forecasting Affective neuroscience Affective science Affective science § Measuring emotions
Emotion_perception
to shrink by 4.4%. Calculating demand forecast accuracy Errors and residuals in statistics Forecasting Forecasting accuracy Mean squared prediction error
Forecast_error
American political forecaster
to find information about electoral forecasting, and Cambridge University with regards to interpreting forecasting data from the 2024 election. Race to
Race_to_the_WH
Type of emotional response
Matter More Than IQ, and is recognized as a formal academic term within affective neuroscience. The brain consists of two hemispheres, each containing an
Amygdala_hijack
Unpleasant feeling of a psychological nature
Weltschmerz Related Affect consciousness in education measures in psychology Affective computing forecasting neuroscience science spectrum Affectivity positive negative
Psychological_pain
Prediction of the future created by combining several separate forecasts
Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2014) used variants of QRA. Consensus-based assessment Consensus decision-making Delphi method Economic forecasting Ensemble
Consensus_forecast
Professor of Psychology, Harvard University: The psychology of affective forecasting. Scott F. Gilbert, Professor of Biology, Swarthmore College: The
List of Guggenheim Fellowships awarded in 1999
List_of_Guggenheim_Fellowships_awarded_in_1999
Prediction of future fashion trends
technology. Short-term forecasting can also be considered fad forecasting. Two types of fashion forecasting are used: short-term forecasting, which envisions
Fashion_forecasting
Branch of energy forecasting
Electricity price forecasting (EPF) is a branch of energy forecasting which focuses on using mathematical, statistical and machine learning models to
Electricity_price_forecasting
Rule-like system shaping how people should feel
simplified affective anchors of moralised narratives of threat and rescue, promises of restored stability, or symbolic gestures of care. Finally, affective governance
Emotion_regime
Prediction of risks to human health based on weather conditions
health forecasting project is forecasting the risk of exacerbation for people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). COPD health forecasts are
Health_forecasting
Statistical model used in time series analysis
ARIMA models". Forecasting: principles and practice. oTexts. Retrieved 19 May 2015. Box, George E. P. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control
Autoregressive integrated moving average
Autoregressive_integrated_moving_average
example, westerners tend to form affective processing while easterners tend to form analytical processing. Moreover, Affective or feeling based decision- makings
Cross-cultural differences in decision-making
Cross-cultural_differences_in_decision-making
Affective self-report tool
Russell's Affect Grid and was originally developed and validated for the affective appraisal of food stimuli, since conventional affective self-report
EmojiGrid
United Kingdom's national weather service
"Met Office Forecasting Models". Retrieved 26 October 2025. "Met Office Ensemble Forecasting". Retrieved 26 October 2025. "Flood Forecasting Centre moves
Met_Office
1990 non-fiction psychology book
Jeremy A. (Spring 2005). "Law and the Emotions: The Problems of Affective Forecasting". Indiana Law Journal. 80 (155). Indiana University. Goleman, Daniel
Evaluating a Large Group Awareness Training
Evaluating_a_Large_Group_Awareness_Training
Fast-flowing atmospheric air current
Meteorologists use the location of some of the jet streams as an aid in weather forecasting. Airlines use them to reduce some flight times and fuel consumption.
Jet_stream
rational expectation approach to consumption creates implications for forecasting and analyzing economic policies. “If consumers obey the permanent-income
Random walk model of consumption
Random_walk_model_of_consumption
Type of cognitive bias
Positive illusions – Unrealistically favorable attitudes Reference class forecasting – Method of predicting the future Self-serving bias – Distortion to enhance
Optimism_bias
Phenomenological concept
Weltschmerz Related Affect consciousness in education measures in psychology Affective computing forecasting neuroscience science spectrum Affectivity positive negative
Lived_experience
Science of forecasting how a tropical cyclone moves and its effects
tropical cyclone forecasting: track forecasting, intensity forecasting, rainfall forecasting, storm surge, tornado, and seasonal forecasting. While skill
Tropical_cyclone_forecasting
Interdisciplinary scientific study of the atmosphere focusing on weather forecasting
radar technology, introduced sophisticated forecasting models. Later, computers revolutionized forecasting by processing vast datasets in real time and
Meteorology
Rate at which air moves from high- to low-pressure areas
speed is now commonly measured with an anemometer. Wind speed affects weather forecasting, aviation and maritime operations, construction projects, growth
Wind_speed
Representation of a type of random process
from the previous forecasting step—is used instead. Then for future periods the same procedure is used, each time using one more forecast value on the right
Autoregressive_model
Branch of space physics and aeronomy
Zone could be far-reaching. In 2016, the Space Weather Research and Forecasting Act (S. 2817) was introduced to build on that legacy. Later, in 2017-2018
Space_weather
Pleasure from the misfortunes of others
is a study of the issue of how the pain and misfortune of some people affects others, namely whether war photography and war paintings may be helpful
Schadenfreude
Measure of average lifespan in a given population
live longer and longer. Life expectancy forecasting is usually based on one of two different approaches: Forecasting the life expectancy directly, generally
Life_expectancy
Disproportionate favor towards the past
also exaggerates negative emotions, creating a bipolar distortion of affective memory that depends on personality, time, and developmental stage. Though
Rosy_retrospection
Weather prediction using mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans
model ensemble forecasts have been used to help define the forecast uncertainty and to extend the window in which numerical weather forecasting is viable farther
Numerical_weather_prediction
Statement about a future event
to specific points in time, the process is known as forecasting.[failed verification] Forecasting usually requires time series methods, while prediction
Prediction
Falling in long-lasting love with someone on first sight
Weltschmerz Related Affect consciousness in education measures in psychology Affective computing forecasting neuroscience science spectrum Affectivity positive negative
Love_at_first_sight
Cognitive bias about one's own skill
S. (2009). "Cognitive Bias". The Oxford Companion to Emotion and the Affective Sciences. Oxford University Press. ISBN 978-0-19-856963-3. Archived from
Dunning–Kruger_effect
Estimate of the expected production of one or more wind turbines
Forecasting of the wind power generation may be considered at different time scales, depending on the intended application: very short-term forecasts
Wind_power_forecasting
United States government agency
Forecasting (ATCF) system, used to incorporate various data and model outputs, create and update HURDAT, and to generate tropical cyclone forecasts.
National_Hurricane_Center
College London, PAGASA, Vietnam's National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) and Taiwan's Central Weather Administration (CWA). The first
2026_Pacific_typhoon_season
Federal Budget report is "back in the black" but the Coalition has only forecast a surplus and is yet to deliver one; Josh Frydenberg claimed the Budget
List of The Weekly with Charlie Pickering episodes
List_of_The_Weekly_with_Charlie_Pickering_episodes
German noun for an emotion of longing
Weltschmerz Related Affect consciousness in education measures in psychology Affective computing forecasting neuroscience science spectrum Affectivity positive negative
Sehnsucht
Disease management system
cases a disease forecasting system attempts to define when the environment will be conducive to disease development. Good disease forecasting systems must
Plant_disease_forecasting
Hardware or software designed to provide company
with advances in artificial intelligence, large language models (LLMs), affective computing, and social robotics. In fields such as human–robot interaction
Artificial_human_companion
Platforms for betting on events
accuracy in the long run". International Journal of Forecasting. US Presidential Election Forecasting. 24 (2): 285–300. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2008.03
Prediction_market
persistence alone and reliable to only 5–7 days into the future. Long range forecasting was essentially random. Christensen et al. demonstrated the ability to
Effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the United States
Effects_of_the_El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation_in_the_United_States
Predicting the track of a tropical cyclone
Tropical cyclone track forecasting involves predicting where a tropical cyclone is going to track over the next 120 hours (or five days), every 6 to 12 hours
Tropical cyclone track forecasting
Tropical_cyclone_track_forecasting
Terminology used by the National Weather Service to describe severe weather in the US
Forecast Office in Barrigada, Guam and its partnering tropical weather forecasting agency, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.) Hurricane local statement
Severe weather terminology (United States)
Severe_weather_terminology_(United_States)
bias and error in its own past forecasts online. Their forecasting track record and the implications of their forecasts have been discussed on business
Survey of Professional Forecasters
Survey_of_Professional_Forecasters
Country in East Asia
Taiwan's 400 years of history. New Taiwan, Ilha Formosa. Key Development Forecasts for Taiwan from International Futures Chinese Taipei. OECD. Wikimedia
Taiwan
Economic forecasting Greenbook Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast Survey of Professional Forecasters ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters Consensus
Blue_Chip_Economic_Indicators
state of the UK economy. Reeves had spoken of a downgrade in economic forecasts that would make it difficult to meet her spending rules, but the letter
2025 in United Kingdom politics and government
2025_in_United_Kingdom_politics_and_government
US government scientific agency
NOH-ə) is a United States scientific and regulatory agency tasked with forecasting weather, monitoring oceanic and atmospheric conditions, charting the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National_Oceanic_and_Atmospheric_Administration
Form of precipitation
quantitative, forecasting amounts, or a qualitative, forecasting the probability of a specific amount, basis. Radar imagery forecasting techniques show
Rain
Scientific study of climate
well as the forecasting of precipitation amounts and distribution of the future. A variation of this theme, used for medium range forecasting, is known
Climatology
applications, including weather forecasting, Earth observation, and optimisation in transport and energy systems. In weather forecasting, peer-reviewed studies
Environmental_impact_of_AI
AFFECTIVE FORECASTING
AFFECTIVE FORECASTING
Girl/Female
Muslim
Affection
Girl/Female
American, British, English
Affection
Girl/Female
English
Affection.
Girl/Female
Hindu
Affection
Boy/Male
Hindu, Indian
Effective
Girl/Female
Arabic, Farsi, Iranian, Muslim
Affection
Boy/Male
Muslim
Worker. Effective.
Girl/Female
Hindu
Affection
Girl/Female
Hindu, Indian, Marathi
Affection
Boy/Male
Hindu, Indian, Marathi
Effective; Powerful
Girl/Female
Arabic, Indian, Iranian, Muslim, Parsi
Affection
Boy/Male
Anglo, Australian, Hindu, Indian, Kurdish, Punjabi, Sikh
Pain; Effective
Girl/Female
Indian, Tamil
Affection
Girl/Female
Hindu, Indian
Affection
Boy/Male
Hindu, Indian
Affection
Girl/Female
Indian
Affection
Boy/Male
Muslim Hindi
Worker. Effective.
Girl/Female
Tamil
Affection
Girl/Female
Arabic, Muslim
Affection
Girl/Female
Tamil
Priyatha | பà¯à®°à¯€à®¯à®¤à®¾
Affection
AFFECTIVE FORECASTING
AFFECTIVE FORECASTING
Boy/Male
Arabic, Muslim
Intelligent
Boy/Male
Bengali, Hindu, Indian, Sindhi
One who Fulfills Wishes Instantly
Girl/Female
Arthurian Legend
Wife of Percival.
Girl/Female
Hindu
Victory, Right, Singing
Boy/Male
Indian, Punjabi, Sikh
Protector of Traditions
Surname or Lastname
English
English : variant of Dowden.
Girl/Female
Hindu, Indian
Prosperity
Boy/Male
Gujarati, Hindu, Indian, Kannada, Malayalam, Marathi, Sindhi, Telugu
Lord Indra
Male
English
Irish surname transferred to forename use, from an Anglicized form of Gaelic Baile an Doire, BALLINDERRY means "town of the oak wood."
Girl/Female
Muslim
First rise of Sun
AFFECTIVE FORECASTING
AFFECTIVE FORECASTING
AFFECTIVE FORECASTING
AFFECTIVE FORECASTING
AFFECTIVE FORECASTING
n.
Specie or coin, as distinguished from paper currency; -- a term used in many parts of Europe.
adv.
In an affective manner; impressively; emotionally.
a.
Wanting in something; incomplete; lacking a part; deficient; imperfect; faulty; -- applied either to natural or moral qualities; as, a defective limb; defective timber; a defective copy or account; a defective character; defective rules.
v. t.
To make an adjective of; to form or change into an adjective.
a.
Lacking some of the usual forms of declension or conjugation; as, a defective noun or verb.
a.
Effective.
a.
Not effective.
a.
Moving the emotions; fitted to excite the emotions; pathetic; touching; as, an affecting address; an affecting sight.
adv.
Close to one's interests, affection, etc.; touching, or affecting intimately; intimate; dear; as, a near friend.
a.
Tending to affect; affecting.
superl.
Vigorous; effective; forcible; powerful.
n.
Added to a substantive as an attribute; of the nature of an adjunct; as, an adjective word or sentence.
n.
Disease; morbid symptom; malady; as, a pulmonary affection.
n.
The act of affecting or acting upon; the state of being affected.
a.
Having the power to produce an effect or effects; producing a decided or decisive effect; efficient; serviceable; operative; as, an effective force, remedy, speech; the effective men in a regiment.
n.
A word used with a noun, or substantive, to express a quality of the thing named, or something attributed to it, or to limit or define it, or to specify or describe a thing, as distinct from something else. Thus, in phrase, "a wise ruler," wise is the adjective, expressing a property of ruler.
a.
Pertaining to or exciting emotion; affectional; emotional.
n.
A settled good will; kind feeling; love; zealous or tender attachment; -- often in the pl. Formerly followed by to, but now more generally by for or towards; as, filial, social, or conjugal affections; to have an affection for or towards children.
n.
Affection.