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Prediction of the future created by combining several separate forecasts
A consensus forecast is a prediction of the future created by combining several separate forecasts which have often been created using different methodologies
Consensus_forecast
Process of making predictions about the economy
Bank and the OECD. A broad range of forecasts are collected and compiled by "Consensus Economics". Some forecasts are produced annually, but many are
Economic_forecasting
Global macroeconomic survey firm
Consensus Economics is a global macroeconomic survey firm that polls more than 1000 economists monthly for their forecasts for over 2000 macroeconomic
Consensus_Economics
Type of statistical forecasting
survey on forecast probabilities each January in its Consensus Forecasts, Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts publications
Probabilistic_forecasting
Interactive forecasting method
advantages over another structured forecasting approach, prediction markets. Delphi can also be used to help reach expert consensus and develop professional guidelines
Delphi_method
Application of science and technology
range of the forecast) increases. The use of ensembles and model consensus helps narrow the error and provide confidence in the forecast. There is a wide
Weather_forecasting
Method of predicting the future
Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes
Reference_class_forecasting
Making predictions with available data
also sometimes referred to as supply chain forecasting, embraces both statistical forecasting and a consensus process. Studies have shown that extrapolations
Forecasting
Probabilistic or statistical property of the forecast error
portal Calculating demand forecast accuracy Consensus forecast Optimism bias Demand forecasting Exponential growth bias Forecast skill APICS Dictionary 12th
Forecast_bias
Computer program that uses meteorological data to forecast tropical cyclones
hurricane forecast has been sent. The use of consensus, ensemble, and superensemble forecasts lowers errors more than any individual forecast model. Both
Tropical cyclone forecast model
Tropical_cyclone_forecast_model
Method for estimating the maturity of technologies
Techniques Backcasting Causal layered analysis Chain-linked model Consensus forecast Cross impact analysis Delphi Real-time Delphi Foresight Future-proof
Technology_readiness_level
The Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast is a consensus forecast prepared by the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University for the economies
Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast
Western_Blue_Chip_Economic_Forecast
Graphical presentation of the maturity of specific technologies
Techniques Backcasting Causal layered analysis Chain-linked model Consensus forecast Cross impact analysis Delphi Real-time Delphi Foresight Future-proof
Gartner_hype_cycle
American political website
polling data and professional election projections. It features consensus forecasts compiled from multiple political analysts, providing users with a
270toWin
Estimations of customer demand
Demand forecasting, also known as demand planning and sales forecasting (DP&SF), involves the prediction of the quantity of goods and services that will
Demand_forecasting
Observation on the growth of integrated circuit capacity
another decade. In 1975, looking forward to the next decade, he revised the forecast to doubling every two years, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41%
Moore's_law
Long-term future of planet Earth
Techniques Backcasting Causal layered analysis Chain-linked model Consensus forecast Cross impact analysis Delphi Real-time Delphi Foresight Future-proof
Future_of_Earth
Method in futures studies
Techniques Backcasting Causal layered analysis Chain-linked model Consensus forecast Cross impact analysis Delphi Real-time Delphi Foresight Future-proof
Three_Horizons
Theoretical composite race which will result from ongoing racial admixture
Techniques Backcasting Causal layered analysis Chain-linked model Consensus forecast Cross impact analysis Delphi Real-time Delphi Foresight Future-proof
Race_of_the_future
Attempts to spot a pattern from information
(trends). Cool-hunting Extrapolation Horizon scanning Technology forecasting Weather forecasting Trend analysis tries to predict a trend like a bull market
Trend_analysis
Multiple simulation method for weather forecasting
Ensemble forecasting is a method used in or within numerical weather prediction. Instead of making a single forecast of the most likely weather, a set
Ensemble_forecasting
Problem-solving technique that breaks down a system into its component pieces
Techniques Backcasting Causal layered analysis Chain-linked model Consensus forecast Cross impact analysis Delphi Real-time Delphi Foresight Future-proof
Systems_analysis
Technique used in strategic planning and futurology
learning modes of research. In this method, forecasts, the meanings individuals give to these forecasts, the critical assumptions used, the narratives
Causal_layered_analysis
Theories about the end of the universe
physical properties of the mass–energy in the universe. There is a strong consensus among cosmologists that the shape of the universe is considered "flat"
Ultimate_fate_of_the_universe
Hypothetical event
result in or significantly contribute to the singularity. Technology forecasters and researchers disagree about when, or whether, human intelligence will
Technological_singularity
Graphical visualization method of changes
Techniques Backcasting Causal layered analysis Chain-linked model Consensus forecast Cross impact analysis Delphi Real-time Delphi Foresight Future-proof
Futures_wheel
Hypothetical global-scale disaster risk
apparent likelihood Foresight (psychology) – Behavior-based backcasting & forecasting factors Future of Earth – Long-term future of planet Earth Future of
Global_catastrophic_risk
Evaluation of climate change by the scientific community
There is scientific consensus that the Earth has been consistently warming since the start of the Industrial Revolution, that the rate of recent warming
Scientific consensus on climate change
Scientific_consensus_on_climate_change
Predicting the future of technology
widely used in technology forecasts because of its flexibility and convenience. However, the requirement on reaching consensus is a possible disadvantage
Technology_forecasting
Online education technology company
Coursera reported an earnings per share (EPS) of −$0.03, exceeding the consensus forecast of −$0.06. The startup raised an initial $16 million funding round
Coursera
projections and forecasting record of the OECD as well as the International Monetary Fund, in some cases comparing these to consensus forecasts such as those
Economic Outlook (OECD publication)
Economic_Outlook_(OECD_publication)
Influencing current reality from desired future state scenario
analysis, backcasting can be considered to be the opposite of forecasting; thus: forecasting involves the prediction of the future (unknown) values of the
Backcasting
Branch of engineering dealing with hypothetical models
Techniques Backcasting Causal layered analysis Chain-linked model Consensus forecast Cross impact analysis Delphi Real-time Delphi Foresight Future-proof
Exploratory_engineering
In statistics, a forecast error is the difference between the actual or real and the predicted or forecast value of a time series or any other phenomenon
Forecast_error
Overview of space exploration in the future
Techniques Backcasting Causal layered analysis Chain-linked model Consensus forecast Cross impact analysis Delphi Real-time Delphi Foresight Future-proof
Future_of_space_exploration
Model of innovation
in the innovation process: From Queen to Cinderella?” Technological Forecasting & Social Change 76, 861–867. Marius Vassiliou, Stan Davis, and Jonathan
Chain-linked_model
Techniques Backcasting Causal layered analysis Chain-linked model Consensus forecast Cross impact analysis Delphi Real-time Delphi Foresight Future-proof
Future_workshop
engineering, business and socio-political systems. It doesn't aim to forecast the future, rather it focuses on inventing or innovating the future by
Science_fiction_prototyping
Term referring to various activities in futurology
Emerging technologies Foresight Institute Forecasting Horizon scanning Optimism bias Reference class forecasting Scenario planning Strategic foresight Strategic
Foresight_(futures_studies)
Futures studies / Futures techniques method
risky behavior and thus reduce the HIV infection rate, invalidating the forecast (which might have remained correct if it had not been publicly known).
Scenario_planning
Planning and building for time to come
Techniques Backcasting Causal layered analysis Chain-linked model Consensus forecast Cross impact analysis Delphi Real-time Delphi Foresight Future-proof
Future-proof
International nonprofit organization
and economists. The center also publishes a semiannual Real Estate Consensus Forecast. In addition, since its founding, the center has assumed responsibility
Urban_Land_Institute
Design practice critically concerned with future designs
Techniques Backcasting Causal layered analysis Chain-linked model Consensus forecast Cross impact analysis Delphi Real-time Delphi Foresight Future-proof
Speculative_design
Futures studies lessons learned methods
demand forecast accuracy Computer supported brainstorming Consensus forecast Critical design Design fiction Environmental impact assessment Forecasting Foresight
Futures_techniques
Element of technology management
competitive strategy. It can also be regarded as a method of technology forecasting or in the broader context also an element of corporate foresight. Technology
Technology_scouting
Economic policies for developing nations
The Washington Consensus is a set of ten economic policy prescriptions considered in the 1980s and 1990s to constitute the "standard" reform package promoted
Washington_Consensus
Study of postulating possible futures
statistical forecasting intensified. In statistics, a forecast is a calculation of a future event's magnitude or probability. Forecasting calculates the
Futures_studies
House elections for the 119th U.S. Congress
November 30, 2022. Retrieved December 1, 2022. "2024 House Election: Consensus Forecast". 270toWin. Archived from the original on February 6, 2024. Retrieved
2024 United States House of Representatives elections
2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections
Depletion of natural organic and inorganic resources
value. Globally, environmental economics has not been able to provide a consensus of measurement units of nature's services. Minerals are needed to provide
Resource_depletion
Futures studies term
and its consequences. It includes technology intelligence, technology forecasting, technology roadmapping, technology assessment, and technology foresight
Future-oriented technology analysis
Future-oriented_technology_analysis
Topics referred to by the same term
profitably Blue Chip Economic Indicators, a monthly publication with consensus forecasts of the US economy Blue chip hacking scandal, corruption of private
Blue_chip
Overview of and topical guide to futures studies
Accelerating change Calculating demand forecast accuracy Clarke's three laws Collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment Causal layered analysis
Outline_of_futures_studies
Methodology in futures studies
appeared in 1995 in a paper discussing trends in information technology and forecasting the year 2005. Then, horizon scanning was used to name detection and
Horizon_scanning
Branch of energy forecasting
Electricity price forecasting (EPF) is a branch of energy forecasting which focuses on using mathematical, statistical and machine learning models to
Electricity_price_forecasting
Test on U.S. banks
projections published by Consensus Forecasts, the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey, and the Survey of Professional Forecasters in February 2009. This
2009 Supervisory Capital Assessment Program
2009_Supervisory_Capital_Assessment_Program
Poincaré writing in 1908 (English translation), "The true method of forecasting the future of mathematics lies in the study of its history and its present
Future_of_mathematics
Energy forecasting includes forecasting demand (load) and price of electricity, fossil fuels (natural gas, oil, coal) and renewable energy sources (RES;
Energy_forecasting
least absolute deviation (LAD) regression. Consensus forecast, also known as combining forecasts, forecast averaging or model averaging (in econometrics
Quantile_regression_averaging
Short-term state of the atmosphere
ensembles and model consensus helps to narrow the error and pick the most likely outcome. There are a variety of end users to weather forecasts. Weather warnings
Weather
Economic state
Techniques Backcasting Causal layered analysis Chain-linked model Consensus forecast Cross impact analysis Delphi Real-time Delphi Foresight Future-proof
Cashless_society
Form of the Delphi method
“Round-less”, Almost Real Time Delphi Method. Journal of Technological Forecasting and Social Change,73(4), 321-333. Friedewald, M., von Oertzen, J., &
Real-time_Delphi
Increase in the rate of technological change through history
"Superexponential Long-Term Trends in Information Technology" (PDF). Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 78 (8): 1356–1364. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2011.07
Accelerating_change
(EPS-Forecast)}}} where EPS is a firm's earnings per share, and Forecast is analysts' consensus forecast of its earnings per share. Profit warning Pinto, Jerald
Earnings_surprise
2004 book by James Surowiecki
towards the "correct" answer. Many of the consensus forecasts have proven to be more accurate than forecasts made by individuals. Designed as an optimized
The_Wisdom_of_Crowds
Methodology in futures studies
writes that cross-impact analysis was the result of a question: "can forecasting be based on perceptions about how future events may interact?" The first
Cross_impact_analysis
Determining the value of a new technology
the study and evaluation of new technologies. It is a way of trying to forecast and prepare for the upcoming technological advancements and their repercussions
Technology_assessment
Price/earnings to growth ratio, a stock price analysis tool
2008). The NASDAQ web-site uses the forecast growth rate (based on the consensus of professional analysts) and forecast earnings over the next 12 months
PEG_ratio
Professional association
well-known of the NABE surveys, provides the consensus forecast of NABE’s professional economic forecasters. Certified Business Economist: NABE offers continuing
National Association for Business Economics
National_Association_for_Business_Economics
American economist
2020 U.S. election, he predicted the results would be closer than consensus forecasts suggested. Twelve days before the 2024 US elections, Woo said in
David_Woo
Film by Anthony Maras
American forecaster, utilizes historical weather patterns to predict clear skies and "invasion-perfect" conditions without mentioning poor weather forecast for
Pressure_(2026_film)
Consensus Economics Consensus forecast "Economic Forecasting Survey". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved April 21, 2014. "Semiannual Economic Forecasting
Wall Street Journal Economic Survey
Wall_Street_Journal_Economic_Survey
year and next from each panel member, plus and average, or consensus, of their forecasts for each of these variables associated with the economy of the
Blue_Chip_Economic_Indicators
Conjoint analysis (in marketing) Conjugate prior Consensus-based assessment Consensus clustering Consensus forecast Conservatism (belief revision) Consistency
List_of_statistics_articles
Service estimating corporate earnings
la using "@" instead of "at". The I/B/E/S current forecast database is offered on a summary (consensus) level or detailed (analyst-by-analyst) basis. With
Institutional Brokers' Estimate System
Institutional_Brokers'_Estimate_System
Conceptual framework
in society, threatcasting participants map these back to the original forecast to see whether or not they are on track toward the target future scenario
Threatcasting
of the United States Consensus Economics, publisher of Consensus Forecasts, a monthly publication with macroeconomic forecasts of 85 countries based
Asian_Development_Outlook
Design practice
Techniques Backcasting Causal layered analysis Chain-linked model Consensus forecast Cross impact analysis Delphi Real-time Delphi Foresight Future-proof
Design_fiction
Aspect of design that challenges preconceptions
Techniques Backcasting Causal layered analysis Chain-linked model Consensus forecast Cross impact analysis Delphi Real-time Delphi Foresight Future-proof
Critical_design
chief of staff, Major General Harold R. Bull. Stagg reported the team consensus, although this has been glossed over in popular memory. Admiral Sir George
Weather forecasting for Operation Overlord
Weather_forecasting_for_Operation_Overlord
Expected amount of melted precipitation
performance. Using a consensus of forecast models, as well as ensemble members of the various models, can help reduce forecast error. However, regardless
Quantitative precipitation forecast
Quantitative_precipitation_forecast
Federal Budget report is "back in the black" but the Coalition has only forecast a surplus and is yet to deliver one; Josh Frydenberg claimed the Budget
List of The Weekly with Charlie Pickering episodes
List_of_The_Weekly_with_Charlie_Pickering_episodes
Statistics concept
least-squares estimators. Mathematics portal Absolute deviation Consensus forecasts Error detection and correction Explained sum of squares Innovation
Errors_and_residuals
S. companies in 2020 as a result of the virus, at a time when the consensus forecast of Wall Street expected "earnings to climb 7%." On March 20, 2020
Economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States
Economic_impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States
Educator and management scholar
1991. Under his leadership as Dean, the Mexico Economic Outlook consensus forecast was created along with degree programs in Mexico City with the Instituto
Larry_Edward_Penley
Estimation method in project management
method which was developed in the 1950-1960s at the RAND Corporation as a forecasting tool. It has since been adapted across many industries to estimate many
Wideband_delphi
US think tank
(April 2000). "How Accurate are Private Sector Forecasts? Cross-Country Evidence from Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth" (PDF). IMF Working Paper (77):
Economic Cycle Research Institute
Economic_Cycle_Research_Institute
Time series Lucas critique Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium Consensus forecast Kydland, Finn E.; Prescott, Edward C. (1991). "The Econometrics of
Large-scale macroeconometric model
Large-scale_macroeconometric_model
Indicators Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast Consensus Economics: Surveys of US and International Economic Forecasts Livingston Survey "The Anxious Index"
Survey of Professional Forecasters
Survey_of_Professional_Forecasters
2015 film by Ridley Scott
Cinema in North America. Two months before The Martian's release, BoxOffice forecast that the film would gross $46 million on its opening weekend in the United
The_Martian_(film)
decline since 2005 is largely due to natural climate variation. The study forecast that the slowdown could continue for another five to ten years, although
2025_in_climate_change
derived from consensus forecasts, predicts long-term stock returns and can be improved by accounting for errors in earnings forecasts. In 2024, Lee devised
Charles_M._C._Lee
2015 US Geological Survey earthquake forecast for California
Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3, or UCERF3, is the latest official earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) for the state of California
UCERF3
2024 film by Kelsey Mann
the original on September 1, 2024. Retrieved June 15, 2024. "Long Range Forecast: Can Inside Out 2 Be the First $100M Opener of 2024?". Box Office Pro.
Inside_Out_2
Concept for a future society created by a new industrial revolution
education normal Neo-colonial post-normal rhetoric wars Scientific community consensus controversy dissent enterprise integrity literacy method misconduct priority
Society_5.0
2018 film by John Krasinski
387 reviews, and an average rating of 8.2/10. The website's critical consensus reads: "A Quiet Place artfully plays on elemental fears with a ruthlessly
A_Quiet_Place
Country primarily in North America
Resources in your library Resources in other libraries Key Development Forecasts for the United States from International Futures Official U.S. Government
United_States
Human-caused changes to climate on Earth
Council's 1979 Charney Report supported the accuracy of climate models that forecast significant warming. Human causation of observed global warming and dangers
Climate_change
to disperse over longer distances. 27 May: a study published in Nature forecast a 36.5–42.1% increase in global hailstorm-induced damage potential by 2100
2026_in_climate_change
Predicting the track of a tropical cyclone
15–20 percent. Using a consensus of forecast models, as well as ensemble members of the various models, can help reduce forecast error. However, regardless
Tropical cyclone track forecasting
Tropical_cyclone_track_forecasting
American meteorologist (born 1955)
Bastardi (born July 18, 1955) is a professional meteorologist and weather forecaster. He is a frequent guest on TV news shows. Bastardi is an outspoken denier
Joe_Bastardi
CONSENSUS FORECAST
CONSENSUS FORECAST
Boy/Male
Gypsy
He who forecasts.
Girl/Female
Hindu, Indian, Kannada
Abstract; Forecast
Boy/Male
Hindu, Indian
Peace Lover; Forecaster
Surname or Lastname
English
English : from Middle English, Old French convers ‘convert’ (Latin conversus, past participle of convertere ‘to turn’), hence a nickname for a Jew converted to Christianity, or more often an occupational name for someone converted to the religious way of life, a lay member of a convent.
CONSENSUS FORECAST
CONSENSUS FORECAST
Girl/Female
Hindu, Indian
Goddess Parvathi
Boy/Male
Hindu, Indian, Traditional
Goddess Parvati
Boy/Male
Arabic, Hindu, Indian, Iranian, Muslim, Parsi, Pashtun
Illustrious; Famous Persian Prince; A Character in Shahnameh; Rostam's Son; Of Shahnama Fame; Champion; Name of a Persian Warrior
Boy/Male
Irish
From the great field.
Surname or Lastname
Italian
Italian : nickname from volante ‘(he) who flies’ (compare 3, below).Spanish : unexplained.English : nickname from the present participle of Old French voler ‘to fly’, in the sense of ‘nimble’, ‘agile’.
Male
French
French form of Old High German Hrodric, RODRIGUE means "famous power."
Female
Chamoru
, night.
Boy/Male
Indian
Lord Shiva
Boy/Male
Tamil
Black bee, A bumble bee, Parvati Lord Shivas wife had taken the form of a bumble bee, Searching for the truth
Boy/Male
English Latin Shakespearean
A, meaning blessed, given to a Shakespearian character in the play Much Ado About Nothing.
CONSENSUS FORECAST
CONSENSUS FORECAST
CONSENSUS FORECAST
CONSENSUS FORECAST
CONSENSUS FORECAST
n.
A machine for raising weights, consisting of a horizontal cylinder or roller moving on its axis, and turned by a crank, lever, or similar means, so as to wind up a rope or chain attached to the weight. In vessels the windlass is often used instead of the capstan for raising the anchor. It is usually set upon the forecastle, and is worked by hand or steam.
a.
Skillful in forecasting the changes of the weather.
v. i.
Excited or caused by sensation, sympathy, or reflex action, and not by conscious volition; as, consensual motions.
n.
Agreement; accord; consent.
n.
One who forecast.
a.
Given to contrivance or forethought; forecasting; scheming; as, a cool calculating disposition.
n.
Hence, the middle part of other bodies; especially (Naut.), that part of a vessel's deck, bulwarks, etc., which is between the quarter-deck and the forecastle; the middle part of the ship.
a.
Of or pertaining to an oracle; uttering oracles; forecasting the future; as, an oracular tongue.
n.
Formerly, a kind of naval cadet, in a ship of war, whose business was to carry orders, messages, reports, etc., between the officers of the quarter-deck and those of the forecastle, and render other services as required.
a.
One who consents.
v. i.
Existing, or made, by the mutual consent of two or more parties.
n.
A covering of canvas or tarpaulin for the hammocks, stowed on the nettings, between the quarterdeck and the forecastle.
n.
A railing on the quarter-deck and forecastle.
n.
One who, or that which, condenses.
n.
The act of a feudatory, vassal, or tenant, by which he consents, upon the alienation of an estate, to receive a new lord or superior, and transfers to him his homage and service; the agreement of a tenant to acknowledge the purchaser of the estate as his landlord.
n.
The upper edge of a vessel's or boat's side; the uppermost wale of a ship (not including the bulwarks); or that piece of timber which reaches on either side from the quarter-deck to the forecastle, being the uppermost bend, which finishes the upper works of the hull.
a.
Agreeing in sound; symphonious.
v. i.
To ascertain or predict by mathematical or astrological computations the time, circumstances, or other conditions of; to forecast or compute the character or consequences of; as, to calculate or cast one's nativity.
n.
The ring which turns inward and condenses the flame of a lamp.
v. i.
To make a calculation; to forecast consequences; to estimate; to compute.