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Type of statistical forecasting
Probabilistic forecasting summarizes what is known about, or opinions about, future events. In contrast to single-valued forecasts (such as forecasting
Probabilistic_forecasting
Measure for evaluating probabilistic forecasts
predictive uncertainty. Although the example given concerns the probabilistic forecasting of a real valued target variable, a variety of different scoring
Scoring_rule
Multiple simulation method for weather forecasting
Ensemble forecasting is a method used in or within numerical weather prediction. Instead of making a single forecast of the most likely weather, a set
Ensemble_forecasting
Statistical tool to model changing systems
intractable. For this reason, in the fields of predictive modelling and probabilistic forecasting, it is desirable for a given model to exhibit the Markov property
Markov_model
Making predictions with available data
Granger causality Simulation Demand forecasting Probabilistic forecasting and Ensemble forecasting The forecast error (also known as a residual) is the
Forecasting
Energy forecasting includes forecasting demand (load) and price of electricity, fossil fuels (natural gas, oil, coal) and renewable energy sources (RES;
Energy_forecasting
forecasting Energy forecasting Forecasting Global Energy Forecasting Competitions Economic forecasting Prediction interval Probabilistic forecasting Quantile
Quantile_regression_averaging
seeking "alchemy-like" deterministic precursors to developing probabilistic earthquake forecasting. This approach treats seismogenesis as a non-random but complex
Statistical_seismology
Application of science and technology
information to the forecast. While increasing the accuracy of forecasting models implies that humans may no longer be needed in the forecasting process at some
Weather_forecasting
Group on Energy Forecasting opened Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2017 (GEFCom2017) termed: Hierarchical Probabilistic Load Forecasting. GEFCom2017
Global Energy Forecasting Competition
Global_Energy_Forecasting_Competition
Branch of energy forecasting
Electricity price forecasting (EPF) is a branch of energy forecasting which focuses on using mathematical, statistical and machine learning models to
Electricity_price_forecasting
Prediction of the future created by combining several separate forecasts
Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2014) used variants of QRA. Consensus-based assessment Consensus decision-making Delphi method Economic forecasting Ensemble
Consensus_forecast
Branch of seismology
Earthquake forecasting is a branch of the science of geophysics, primarily seismology, concerned with the probabilistic assessment of earthquake occurrence
Earthquake_forecasting
Measure of accuracy of predictions
In the fields of forecasting and prediction, forecasting skill or prediction skill is any measure of the accuracy and/or degree of association of prediction
Forecast_skill
Super-Earth exoplanet orbiting Kepler-452
conference. 23 July 2015. Chen, Jingjing; Kipping, David (2016). "Probabilistic Forecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds". The Astrophysical Journal
Kepler-452b
Weather Logistics UK produces regional-seasonal predictions that are probabilistic in nature. Two different blocking sizes are used for the modelling,
Upper-atmospheric_models
Estimate of the expected production of one or more wind turbines
Forecasting of the wind power generation may be considered at different time scales, depending on the intended application: very short-term forecasts
Wind_power_forecasting
Probabilistic or statistical property of the forecast error
the "forecast bias" can be specified as a probabilistic or statistical property of the forecast error. A typical measure of bias of forecasting procedure
Forecast_bias
French mathematician (born 1980)
known for his work on forecasting, optimisation and management science for energy systems, e.g., including probabilistic forecasting, participation of renewable
Pierre_Pinson
Largest dwarf planet
(2 ed.). Elsevier. p. 64. Jingjing Chen; David Kipping (2017). "Probabilistic Forecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds". The Astrophysical Journal
Pluto
Type of statistical regression analysis
in the atmospheric sciences as a way to convert ensemble forecasts into probabilistic forecasts. Relative to simple linear regression, NGR uses the ensemble
Nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression
Nonhomogeneous_Gaussian_regression
Small planetary-mass object
Retrieved September 25, 2015. Chen, Jingjing; Kipping, David (2016). "Probabilistic Forecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds". The Astrophysical Journal
Dwarf_planet
Branch of geophysics, primarily seismology
prediction has historically been treated as distinct from earthquake forecasting (the probabilistic assessment of general earthquake hazard over long time horizons)
Earthquake_prediction
Memoryless property of a stochastic process
elementary Markov property. In the fields of predictive modelling and probabilistic forecasting, the Markov property is considered desirable since it may enable
Markov_property
science, and forms the centerpiece of the classical model of probabilistic forecasting . A European Network coordinates workshops. Application areas
Structured expert judgment: the classical model
Structured_expert_judgment:_the_classical_model
Statistics and machine learning technique
Raftery; J. McLean Sloughter; Tilmann Gneiting, ensembleBMA: Probabilistic Forecasting using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging, Wikidata Q98972500
Ensemble_learning
Machine learning problem
In machine learning, a probabilistic classifier is a classifier that is able to predict, given an observation of an input, a probability distribution
Probabilistic_classification
Indifference towards politics
high during the 2018 and 2022 elections. A 2019 study finds that probabilistic forecasting can mislead voters to believe that the higher polling candidate
Political_apathy
Interactive forecasting method
systematic, interactive forecasting method that relies on a panel of experts. Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages
Delphi_method
Weather warning indicating imminent danger of tornadoes
warning (SAME code: TOR) is a public warning that is issued by weather forecasting agencies to an area in the path of a tornado, or a severe thunderstorm
Tornado_warning
Seventh planet from the Sun
Decker, Berlin, p. 191. Chen, Jingjing; Kipping, David (2017). "Probabilistic Forecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds". The Astrophysical Journal
Uranus
State of balance between external forces on a fluid and internal pressure gradient
Retrieved 2026-04-11. Chen, Jingjing; Kipping, David (2016). "Probabilistic Forecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds". The Astrophysical Journal
Hydrostatic_equilibrium
Methodology for evaluating risks
Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a systematic and comprehensive methodology to evaluate risks associated with a complex engineered technological
Probabilistic_risk_assessment
Type of feedforward neural network
Yitian; Kang, Yanfei; Chen, Yixiong; Wang, Zizhuo (2019-06-11). "Probabilistic Forecasting with Temporal Convolutional Neural Network". arXiv:1906.04397
Convolutional_neural_network
U.S. government research program
predictive of accuracy effective representation of aggregated probabilistic forecasts and their distributions. There is a fair amount of research funded
Aggregative Contingent Estimation Program
Aggregative_Contingent_Estimation_Program
Probabilistic graphical model
linear and normal forecasting models such as ARMA and simple dependency models such as hidden Markov models into a general probabilistic representation and
Dynamic_Bayesian_network
Retrieved 28 November 2019. Chen, Jingjing; Kipping, David (2017). "Probabilistic Forecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds". The Astrophysical Journal
List of potentially habitable exoplanets
List_of_potentially_habitable_exoplanets
Planet that is composed primarily of silicate rocks or metals
PMID 38326592. S2CID 267546453. Chen, Jingjing; Kipping, David (2016). "Probabilistic Forecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds". The Astrophysical Journal
Terrestrial_planet
Large, round non-stellar astronomical object
Retrieved 23 August 2008. Chen, Jingjing; Kipping, David (2016). "Probabilistic Forecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds". The Astrophysical Journal
Planet
Power generated from nuclear reactions
2020). "Estimating the costs of energy transition scenarios using probabilistic forecasting methods" (PDF). University of Oxford. Archived from the original
Nuclear_power
Continuous deformation between two continuous functions
Siddharth; Haber, Eldad; Gaudreault, Stéphane (2025-03-15), Probabilistic Forecasting for Dynamical Systems with Missing or Imperfect Data, arXiv:2503
Homotopy
Forecasters whose results are more accurate than average
Judgment Project one set of forecasters were given training on how to translate their understandings into a probabilistic forecast, summarised into an acronym
Superforecaster
American severe weather forecasting center
during the given forecast period, although tornado, hail and wind details are only available for Days 1 and 2. Day 3 uses a probabilistic scale from a Marginal
Storm_Prediction_Center
Type of exoplanet larger than Earth
com February 26, 2019 Chen, Jingjing; Kipping, David (2016). "Probabilistic Forecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds". The Astrophysical Journal
Super-Earth
Expected amount of melted precipitation
quantitative basis, forecasting amounts, or a qualitative basis, forecasting the probability of a specific amount. Radar imagery forecasting techniques show
Quantitative precipitation forecast
Quantitative_precipitation_forecast
Goldilocks terrestrial exoplanet orbiting Teegarden's Star
Away". Science Alert. Chen, Jingjing; Kipping, David (2017). "Probabilistic Forecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds". The Astrophysical Journal
Teegarden's_Star_b
Substellar object
125058. S2CID 119338327. Chen, Jingjing; Kipping, David (2016). "Probabilistic forecasting of the masses and radii of other worlds". The Astrophysical Journal
Brown_dwarf
Decision science practice and analytical framework
The U.S. Department of Transportation uses these analyses "when probabilistic forecasts are unavailable or when there is low confidence in or significant
Decision-making under deep uncertainty
Decision-making_under_deep_uncertainty
Developer of weather and climate forecast tools and services provider
facilitated development of flood forecasting schemes and their application, at the international level. In Flood Forecasting: A Global Perspective CFAN's
Climate Forecast Applications Network
Climate_Forecast_Applications_Network
Method of predicting the future
Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes
Reference_class_forecasting
Field of study
Ecological forecasting uses knowledge of physics, ecology and physiology, to predict how ecological populations, communities, or ecosystems will change
Ecological_forecasting
Measure of the mass of a planet-like astronomical body
Borderline Planet for Life? Chen, Jingjing; Kipping, David (2016). "Probabilistic Forecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds". The Astrophysical Journal
Planetary_mass
Symbols in astronomy
unnumbered front matter. E.g. p. 10, fig. 3 in Chen & Kipping (2017) Probabilistic Forecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds Archived September 25
Astronomical_symbols
Natural disaster in Nigeria
ibadan, 2016 A. Adepelumi, O. Onibiyo and M. Isogun, "Short-term probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes occurrence in South-Western Nigeria," Environtropica
Natural_disasters_in_Nigeria
U.S. forecasting agency of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
a scientific basis for forecasting. While a debate went on between the Signal Service and Congress over whether the forecasting of weather conditions should
National_Weather_Service
Power forecasting
Generally, the solar forecasting techniques depend on the forecasting horizon Nowcasting (forecasting 3–4 hours ahead), Short-term forecasting (up to seven days
Solar_power_forecasting
Society, 21 April 2020 Chen, Jingjing; Kipping, David (2016). "Probabilistic Forecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds". The Astrophysical Journal
List of possible dwarf planets
List_of_possible_dwarf_planets
3847/1538-4357/aa961c. S2CID 55995400. Chen, Jingjing; Kipping, David (2016). "Probabilistic Forecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds". The Astrophysical Journal
Definition_of_planet
National weather, climate, and astronomy bureau of the Philippines
seasonal forecasting from ten-day running to one-month probabilistic forecasting with special emphasis on high-impact weather events. Specialized forecasts are
PAGASA
AI research laboratory
cyclone formation, track, intensity, and structure with multiple probabilistic forecasts up to 15 days in advance. During the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season
Google_DeepMind
Retrieved 1 January 2023. Chen, Jingjing; Kipping, David (2016). "Probabilistic Forecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds". The Astrophysical Journal
List of gravitationally rounded objects of the Solar System
List_of_gravitationally_rounded_objects_of_the_Solar_System
Predicting the outcomes of elections
Political forecasting aims at forecasting the outcomes of political events. Political events can be a number of events such as diplomatic decisions, actions
Political_forecasting
American political forecaster
to find information about electoral forecasting, and Cambridge University with regards to interpreting forecasting data from the 2024 election. Race to
Race_to_the_WH
analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts of the composition of the Electoral College. These forecasts use a variety of factors to estimate
2004 United States presidential election
2004_United_States_presidential_election
Hypothetical type of planet or moon that may be better-suited for life than Earth
Retrieved 8 February 2024. Chen, Jingjing; Kipping, David (2016). "Probabilistic Forecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds". The Astrophysical Journal
Superhabitable_world
Danish national weather forecasting service
overlapping observation window, allowing for an hourly refresh of probabilistic forecasts. In 2018, DMI operationalized the first hectometric-scale NWP system
Danish Meteorological Institute
Danish_Meteorological_Institute
Branch of statistics focusing on spatial data sets
realizations, and consequently ensemble of predictions that allow for probabilistic forecasting. Therefore, geostatistics is often used to generate or update
Geostatistics
Ocean pollution
Transportation. Retrieved 17 January 2026. Liu J, Duru O (2020). "Bayesian probabilistic forecasting for ship emissions". Atmospheric Environment. 231 117540. Bibcode:2020AtmEn
Environmental impact of shipping
Environmental_impact_of_shipping
Statistical test
that no point forecast can fall below regardless of how accurate its central value is. In contrast, a well-calibrated probabilistic forecast can approach
Cramér–von_Mises_criterion
Irish statistician and sociologist
models. He has recently developed new methods for probabilistic weather forecasting and probabilistic population projections.[citation needed] Raftery
Adrian_Raftery
Hits Riley, Pete; J. J. Love (2017). "Extreme geomagnetic storms: Probabilistic forecasts and their uncertainties". Space Weather. 15 (1): 53–64. Bibcode:2017SpWea
List_of_solar_storms
analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts of the composition of the Electoral College. These forecasts use a variety of factors to estimate
2016 United States presidential election
2016_United_States_presidential_election
analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts of the composition of the Electoral College. These forecasts use a variety of factors to estimate
2012 United States presidential election
2012_United_States_presidential_election
Financial instrument
kernels estimated from historical performance) before a reasonable probabilistic forecast can be obtained. A superior approach for modelling daily or monthly
Weather_derivative
translate probabilistic information provided by forecasts into good decisions is therefore a measure of the utility of weather forecasting. The cost-loss
Cost-loss_model
probability Probabilistic causation Probabilistic design Probabilistic forecasting Probabilistic latent semantic analysis Probabilistic metric space
List_of_statistics_articles
S2CID 53412036. Jingjing Chen; David M. Kipping (29 March 2016). "Probabilistic Forecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds". The Astrophysical Journal
Exoplanet orbital and physical parameters
Exoplanet_orbital_and_physical_parameters
the US NWS global ensemble prediction systems (Global Forecast System), improving probabilistic operational guidance over what can be built from any individual
North American Ensemble Forecast System
North_American_Ensemble_Forecast_System
Extrasolar planet orbiting Mu Arae in the constellation of Ara
1051/0004-6361:20054040. S2CID 15574680. Chen, Jingjing; Kipping, David (2017). "Probabilistic Forecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds". The Astrophysical Journal
Mu_Arae_c
(April 2005). "Probabilistic Forecasting of (Severe) Thunderstorms in the Netherlands Using Model Output Statistics". Weather and Forecasting. 20 (2): 134–148
Model_output_statistics
Neptunian-sized exoplanet orbiting HD 69830
Retrieved 2008-08-13. Chen, Jingjing; Kipping, David (2017). "Probabilistic Forecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds". The Astrophysical Journal
HD_69830_b
Type of climate model
and global climate models are used for weather forecasting, understanding the climate, and forecasting climate change. Atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) model
General_circulation_model
Measure of the accuracy of probabilistic predictions
score is a strictly proper scoring rule that measures the accuracy of probabilistic predictions. For unidimensional predictions, it is strictly equivalent
Brier_score
Component of international climate change agreements
Updated probabilistic forecast of CO2 emissions, based on data to 2015
Nationally determined contribution
Nationally_determined_contribution
analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts of the composition of the Electoral College. These forecasts use a variety of factors to estimate
2008 United States presidential election
2008_United_States_presidential_election
Numerical weather prediction system
leader on physics Inger-lise Frogner, met.no, Project leader on probabilistic forecasting Xiaohua Yang, DMI, Project leader on quality assurance and operational
HIRLAM
American surgeon and academic
Alphabetical Listing". IEEE. Retrieved 2024-07-29. "ensembleBMA: Probabilistic Forecasting using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging". CRAN: Contributed
Raphael_Carl_Lee
United States weather agency
Center serves as a center for quantitative precipitation forecasting, medium range forecasting (three to eight days), and the interpretation of numerical
Weather_Prediction_Center
Crowd-sourced event prediction
Their services include forecasts on questions of general interest, custom forecasts, and training in Good Judgment's forecasting techniques. Starting in
The_Good_Judgment_Project
Sequence of data points over time
(2006). "25 Years of Time Series Forecasting". International Journal of Forecasting. Twenty Five Years of Forecasting. 22 (3): 443–473. CiteSeerX 10.1
Time_series
Weather forecasting and information technology company
The Weather Company LLC is a weather forecasting and information technology company that owns and operates the Weather Channel app and its website weather
The_Weather_Company
Computer program that uses meteorological data to forecast tropical cyclones
Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model is a specialized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and is used to forecast the track and
Tropical cyclone forecast model
Tropical_cyclone_forecast_model
Weather prediction using mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans
model ensemble forecasts have been used to help define the forecast uncertainty and to extend the window in which numerical weather forecasting is viable farther
Numerical_weather_prediction
Intelligence of machines
action (it is not "deterministic"). It must choose an action by making a probabilistic guess and then reassess the situation to see if the action worked. Alongside
Artificial_intelligence
Visual representation of a decision-making problem
situation. It is a generalization of a Bayesian network, in which not only probabilistic inference problems but also decision making problems (following the
Influence_diagram
American economist (born 1948)
the player eventually chooses only nearly best-replies to their probabilistic forecast of the choices of other players, where the support of that probability
Paul_Milgrom
British oil company
recent statement of reserves data, dated 17 March 2016, shows the probabilistic forecast of mean petroleum initially-in-place for the Bentley field of 880
Xcite_Energy
Arbi; Maddox, Thomas M.; Kannampallil, Thomas (2020-12-09). "Probabilistic forecasting of surgical case duration using machine learning: model development
Predictive methods for surgery duration
Predictive_methods_for_surgery_duration
Method of statistical inference
probability Information field theory Principle of maximum entropy Probabilistic causation Probabilistic programming "Bayesian". Merriam-Webster.com Dictionary.
Bayesian_inference
European Commission initiative
first operational European system monitoring and forecasting floods across Europe. It provides probabilistic, flood early warning information up to 10 days
European Flood Awareness System
European_Flood_Awareness_System
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