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Risk measure estimating the average loss in the worst tail of the distribution
Expected shortfall (ES) is a risk measure—a concept used in the field of financial risk measurement to evaluate the market risk or credit risk of a portfolio
Expected_shortfall
Topics referred to by the same term
of a venture being less than the projected or estimated benefits Expected shortfall, a risk measure—a concept used in the field of financial risk measurement
Shortfall
Probability distribution
is ln(3)/λ. The conditional value at risk (CVaR) also known as the expected shortfall or superquantile for Exp(λ) is derived as follows: q ¯ α ( X ) = 1
Exponential_distribution
Topics referred to by the same term
Look up expected in Wiktionary, the free dictionary. Expected may refer to: Expectation (epistemic) Expected value Expected shortfall Expected utility
Expected
American financial services company
on losses. A third commonly used risk measure is expected shortfall, also known variously as expected tail loss, XLoss, conditional VaR, or CVaR. The Marginal
RiskMetrics
Estimated potential loss for an investment under a given set of conditions
related ideas are economic capital, backtesting, stress testing, expected shortfall, and tail conditional expectation. Common parameters for VaR are tail
Value_at_risk
Generalization of the Legendre transformation
In mathematics and mathematical optimization, the convex conjugate of a function is a generalization of the Legendre transformation which applies to non-convex
Convex_conjugate
Topics referred to by the same term
a specialization within the French academic "baccalauréat" degree Expected shortfall, a measure of risk ÉS (disambiguation) ES engine (disambiguation)
ES
When the actual benefits of a venture are less than the projected or estimated benefits
benefit shortfall is said to be 25 percent. Sometimes the terms "demand shortfall" or "revenue shortfall" are used instead of benefit shortfall; see volume
Benefit_shortfall
Floating landing platform operated by SpaceX
Marmac 302 into ASOG began and was expected to move to the East Coast for operation in the following months. A Shortfall of Gravitas underwent its first
Autonomous spaceport drone ship
Autonomous_spaceport_drone_ship
Proposals for bank requirements
losses were from trading books during the 2008 crisis" The use of expected shortfall instead of value at risk as a measure of risk under stress; thus ensuring
Fundamental Review of the Trading Book
Fundamental_Review_of_the_Trading_Book
Method to solve optimization problems
Dynamic programming – Problem optimization method Expected shortfall § Optimization of expected shortfall Input–output model – Quantitative economic model
Linear_programming
Peruvian economist
Torero. Nonparametric Estimation of Conditional Value-at-risk and Expected Shortfall Based on Extreme Value Theory. Econometric Theory, 2018, vol. 34 (1):23–67
Maximo_Torero
Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 1937 to 1940
as the May Report revealed that the budget was unbalanced, with an expected shortfall of £120 million. The Labour government resigned on 24 August, and
Neville_Chamberlain
Use of mathematical and statistical methods in finance
theory - while this is supplemented with various forms of stress test, expected shortfall methodologies, economic capital analysis, direct analysis of the positions
Quantitative analysis (finance)
Quantitative_analysis_(finance)
Econometric analysis of financial risk
Econometrician estimate risk measures like value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) using both parametric and nonparametric methods. For example
Econometrics_of_risk
Ability to manage financial crisis
the expected capital shortfall for a firm in a crisis scenario. To calculate this SRISK, one should first determine the Long-Run Marginal Expected Shortfall
Financial_stability
Overview of finance and finance-related topics
potential loss for an investment under a given set of conditions Expected shortfall – Risk measure estimating the average loss in the worst tail of the
Outline_of_finance
Banking regulation framework
calibrated standardised approach or internal model approval (IMA) for an expected shortfall measure rather than, under Basel II, value at risk. The Basel III:
Basel_III
Framework for modeling optimization problems that involve uncertainty
distributions, chance constraints and risk measures such as Value at risk and Expected shortfall). SAMPL – a set of extensions to AMPL specifically designed to express
Stochastic_programming
Risks arising from movements in market variables
the "Trading book" and the "Banking book" Use of value at risk vs. expected shortfall to measure of risk under stress The risk of market illiquidity In
Market_risk
Protecting economic value by managing risk exposure
supplemented with the more sophisticated Conditional value at risk / expected shortfall, Tail value at risk, and Extreme value theory. For the underlying
Financial_risk_management
Infinite series used to approximate quantiles of probability distributions
Arora, Rohit (2017). "Inefficiency and bias of modified value-at-risk and expected shortfall". Journal of Risk. 19 (6): 59–84. doi:10.21314/JOR.2017.365.
Cornish–Fisher_expansion
Light rail line in the Seattle metropolitan area
was also proposed by Sound Transit to help reduce costs amid an expected shortfall in revenue. In July, the Bellevue City Council voted 4–3 to reject
2_Line_(Sound_Transit)
reserves. Unconventional oil is not currently predicted to meet the expected shortfall even in a best-case scenario. For unconventional oil to fill the gap
Predicting the timing of peak oil
Predicting_the_timing_of_peak_oil
its economic initiatives such as consolidating the budget with an expected shortfall and also to avoid austerity measures that many other EU countries
2011 Polish parliamentary election
2011_Polish_parliamentary_election
Financial risk
by common risk measurement techniques, such as value at risk and expected shortfall. Shown in the figure on the right, as a financial asset enters into
Endogenous_risk
Supplementary foreign exchange reserve assets defined and maintained by the IMF
have been made, however. One of its first roles was to alleviate an expected shortfall of U.S. dollars c. 1970. Back then, the United States followed a more
Special_drawing_rights
a possible alternative to other risk measures as value-at-risk or expected shortfall. It is a theoretically interesting measure because it provides different
Entropic_risk_measure
Aquarium in Seattle, Washington, United States
2022 to fill an expected shortfall, stemming in part from an increase from the original $113 million estimate. The project was expected to cost $160 million
Seattle_Aquarium
as the May Report revealed that the budget was unbalanced, with an expected shortfall of £120 million. As this information became public, there was a run
Rise_of_Neville_Chamberlain
Concept in financial mathematics
L_{d}^{p}(K)\Rightarrow R(X_{2})\supseteq R(X_{1})} Value at risk Expected shortfall Superposed risk measures Entropic value at risk Drawdown Tail conditional
Risk_measure
Estimate of the potential impact of market movements on a firm's earnings
percentile loss (for example, the 5th percentile), indicating the maximum expected shortfall under adverse but plausible market conditions. The benefits of CFaR
Earnings_at_risk
Power-system reliability measure
Expected unserved energy (EUE), sometimes called expected energy not supplied (or not served, EENS) and a loss of energy expectation, (LOEE), is a key
Expected_unserved_energy
Infinite sum approximating a probability distribution in terms of its cumulants
Rohit (2017). "Inefficiency and bias of modified value-at-risk and expected shortfall". Journal of Risk. 19 (6): 59–84. doi:10.21314/JOR.2017.365. McCullagh
Edgeworth_series
Entropic risk measure Coherent risk measure Discounted maximum loss Expected shortfall Superhedging price Spectral risk measure Deviation risk measure Standard
List of financial performance measures
List_of_financial_performance_measures
Measure giving the average loss beyond a specified Value-at-Risk level
the same measure. Under some formulations, it is only equivalent to expected shortfall when the underlying distribution function is continuous at VaR α
Tail_value_at_risk
British financial mathematician
and the performance of risk measures including Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. Since 2013, Alexander has served as an editor of the Journal of Banking
Carol_Alexander
German code-name for plan for invasion of Malta during the Second World War
transferred to the Mediterranean via the river Rhone to make up for an expected shortfall of Italian-built landing craft. German-operated landing craft were
Operation_Herkules
Mathematician
liability traders, static risk constraints based on value at risk or expected shortfall as risk measures are ineffective in curbing the potentially rogue
Damiano_Brigo
S2CID 5762583. Ramponi, Federico Alessandro; Campi, Marco C. (2018). "Expected shortfall: Heuristics and certificates". European Journal of Operational Research
Scenario_optimization
Concept in financial economics
coherent risk measure. The average value at risk (sometimes called expected shortfall or conditional value-at-risk or A V a R {\displaystyle AVaR} ) is
Coherent_risk_measure
Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota
a less expensive option, football fans were expected to return to the Minneapolis plan if the shortfall in the Ramsey County plan were not realized.
U.S._Bank_Stadium
Semiconductor memory supply crisis
analysis, the shortage is expected to last at least until 2030. In June 2026, Micron Technology CEO Sanjay Mehrotra expected the shortage to last through
2025–present global memory supply shortage
2025–present_global_memory_supply_shortage
Class of financial models with stochastic volatility and jumps
features are essential for accurate computation of value at risk (VaR), expected shortfall, and other risk metrics used by financial institutions. In addition
Stochastic volatility jump models
Stochastic_volatility_jump_models
2024 film by Kelly Marcel
"'Venom: The Last Dance' Trips Stateside With $51M Opening, But Makes Up For Shortfall Abroad – Sunday AM Update". Deadline Hollywood. Retrieved October 27,
Venom:_The_Last_Dance
Measure of relationship two or more financial variables over time
increases the return/risk ratio. Measures of risk include value at risk, expected shortfall, and portfolio return variance. There are several statistical measures
Financial_correlation
Healthcare trust in England
Retrieved 19 October 2017. "Barking set to record more than double expected shortfall". Health Service Journal. 13 March 2014. Retrieved 4 April 2014. "Updated:
Barking, Havering and Redbridge University Hospitals NHS Trust
Barking,_Havering_and_Redbridge_University_Hospitals_NHS_Trust
Generative AI chatbot by OpenAI
for problems in computational physics. However, there were important shortfalls like violating basic linear algebra principles around solving singular
ChatGPT
possible probability of achieving investors’ goals, and a reasonably low expected shortfall in case adverse market conditions make it unfeasible to achieve those
Goal-based_investing
American mathematician
probability" in 2010, which either coincide with or are closely related to expected shortfall. Rockafellar, R. T. (1997). Convex analysis. Princeton landmarks in
R._Tyrrell_Rockafellar
Measure of worst-case loss discounted to present value
denotes the essential infimum. The discounted maximum loss is the expected shortfall at level α = 0 {\displaystyle \alpha =0} . It is therefore a coherent
Discounted_maximum_loss
Law enforcement agency
officers when contract negotiations stalled and the city was facing a budget shortfall. Camden experienced a spike in homicides, and the city police department
Camden Police Department (defunct)
Camden_Police_Department_(defunct)
Iranian mathematician (born 1972)
procedures known as 'Range Value-at-risk' (RVaR), a robust alternative to Expected shortfall. Cont, Kotlicki and Valderrama define the concept of Liquidity at
Rama_Cont
Risk metric quantifying variability of returns around their expected value
ES_{\alpha }(X-EX)} , where E S α ( X ) {\displaystyle ES_{\alpha }(X)} is Expected shortfall. Unitized risk – Relative measure of dispersion expressed as the ratio
Deviation_risk_measure
Japanese mathematician
Derivatives, Vol. 6(1), pages: 97–108, 1998 On the significance of expected shortfall as a coherent risk measure, Masaaki Kijima and Koji Inui, Journal
Masaaki_Kijima
Calculating risk measures such as Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) and Expected shortfall (ES). These risk measures are crucial for financial institutions to
Deep backward stochastic differential equation method
Deep_backward_stochastic_differential_equation_method
Bilateral relations
been unveiled to boost domestic production to compensate for the expected shortfall. The tariffs are anticipated to increase the prices of US products
Chile–United_States_relations
Class of US nuclear ballistic missile submarines
was expected to be retired by 2029,[citation needed] so the replacement submarine would need to be seaworthy by that time. A replacement was expected to
Ohio-class_submarine
Regulation designed to mitigate systemic financial risk
institution's contribution to systemic risk (identified as "Marginal Expected Shortfall" in Acharya et al., 2011). To address the time dimension of risk,
Macroprudential_regulation
Canadian politician (born 1957)
by-election, the city's budget shortfall was a major topic of discussion as Toronto's 2023 operating budget faced a shortfall of $1.5 billion. Absent financial
Olivia_Chow
not follow an elliptical distribution. A good alternative could be expected shortfall. For many centuries, investing was the exclusive domain of the very
Maslowian_portfolio_theory
Genocide of European Jews by Nazi Germany
preventative killings. The Germans foresaw that the invasion would cause a food shortfall and planned the mass starvation of Soviet cities and some rural areas
The_Holocaust
Coherent risk measure using weighted outcomes based on risk aversion
(X)\geq \rho (Y)} instead of the above. The expected shortfall is a spectral measure of risk. The expected value is trivially a spectral measure of risk
Spectral_risk_measure
American multirole fighter aircraft
the 2010s, the United States Air Force (USAF) was facing an incoming shortfall of its fighter fleet size in the 2020s due to deferred and downscaled
Boeing_F-15EX_Eagle_II
Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana
funding to cover the shortfall. The Indiana Legislature considered a bill to raise sales taxes statewide to cover the shortfall; however, this plan faced
Lucas_Oil_Stadium
Discussion of proposals to change the U.S. Social Security system
program revenues (i.e., revenue excluding interest) in 2011; this shortfall is expected to continue indefinitely under current law. In 2009, Social Security
Social Security debate in the United States
Social_Security_debate_in_the_United_States
of petroleum is expected to affect Asia the most, but Europe is likely to be hit hard in the medium-to-long term, and the UK is expected to be the worst-hit
2026_Iran_war_fuel_crisis
Governor of Kentucky from 2007 to 2015
state projected a $1.5 billion shortfall for the biennium, and Beshear once again proposed to make up for the shortfall with revenue generated from expanded
Steve_Beshear
Mayor of Seattle since 2026
this community." Upon taking office, Wilson inherited a steep budget shortfall. By June 2026, the city of Seattle had a budget deficit of around $175
Katie_Wilson
more of the three rating agencies. Interest Shortfall – The Ref Ob pays interest less than the expected interest for that period. Writedown – The Ref
Pay as you go (credit derivatives)
Pay_as_you_go_(credit_derivatives)
Data center in Richland Parish, Louisiana, US
facility is expected to consume up to 5 gigawatts (GW) of computational power, a figure Meta confirmed in July 2026 with roughly 2 GW expected online by
Hyperion_Data_Center
American legal scholar
"Measuring Market Risk Under the Basel Accords: VaR, Stressed VaR, and Expected Shortfall". Aestimatio, the IEB International Journal of Finance. 8: 184–201
Jim_Chen
on the West Coast" (Tweet) – via Twitter. "Exclusive: New photos of A Shortfall Of Gravitas show SpaceX's new droneship is getting close to done". June
List of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches (2020–2022)
List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches_(2020–2022)
Russian main battle tank
been expected to begin serial production in 2022, with delivery of a test batch of 100 to the 2nd Guards Tamanskaya Motor Rifle Division expected to begin
T-14_Armata
Banking system where institutions hold only a fraction of deposits as reserves
to meet the demand for cash. However, banks may find themselves in a shortfall situation when depositors wish to withdraw more funds than the reserves
Fractional-reserve_banking
Coherent measure for value at risk
measure Coherent risk measure Value at risk Conditional value at risk Expected shortfall Entropic risk measure Kullback–Leibler divergence Generalized relative
Entropic_value_at_risk
Difference between estimated transaction costs and the amount actually paid
Look up slippage in Wiktionary, the free dictionary. Implementation shortfall Time-weighted average price Ampersand 2025, p. 31. "Slippage Definition"
Slippage_(finance)
Possibility of something bad happening
measured as the expected value of the loss. This combines the probabilities and consequences into a single value. See also expected utility. The simplest
Risk
2013 horror film
share of the A$5.2 million support expected from private investors. The funding plan specified that any shortfall from that level would be made up by
Wolf_Creek_2
Country in South America
prisoners eventually overloaded the Brazilian prison system, leading to a shortfall of about 200,000 accommodations. Human rights in Brazil include the right
Brazil
Clinton promoted equal pay for equal work to address current alleged shortfalls in how much women are paid to do the same jobs men do, promoted explicitly
2016 United States presidential election
2016_United_States_presidential_election
Type of trust fund in the United States
program to cover the shortfall. This reduces the trust fund balance to the extent this occurs. The program deficits are expected to exhaust the fund by
Social_Security_Trust_Fund
Multi-sport event in Los Angeles, California, US
lead public guarantor, committing to spend up to $250 million to cover shortfalls. In 2016, the California legislature took action so that the Governor
2028_Summer_Olympics
Nuclear power station under construction in England
August 2016. Michael Stothard, Kiran Stacey (14 February 2016). "EDF shortfall adds to nuclear plant delay". Financial Times. Archived from the original
Hinkley Point C nuclear power station
Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station
United States airline (1927–1991)
the reorganized Pan Am. Pan Am's senior executives outlined a projected shortfall of between $100 million and possibly $200 million, with the airline requiring
Pan_Am
Assignment planned to achieve a objective
schedule and expected benefits, including elements that are often viewed as intangible, project teams can detect the risk of overruns or shortfalls earlier
Project
American subsidiary of automaker Stellantis
2019). "Fiat Chrysler faces $79 million U.S. penalty for fuel economy shortfall". Reuters. Retrieved October 21, 2019. Shepardson, David (January 10,
Chrysler
Very light jet in Austria
in March 2009. Development of the D-JET has been disrupted by funding shortfalls during the Great Recession. By February 2013, the development program
Diamond_D-Jet
24 November 2012. Peter Martin (20 October 2012). "Budget shock: $21b shortfall". Brisbane Time. Retrieved 24 November 2012. Cullen (23 October 2012)
2012 Australian federal budget
2012_Australian_federal_budget
Island country in the central Pacific
expected based on its current income. In regards to the right to health amongst the adult population, the country achieves 92.2% of what is expected based
Kiribati
Ongoing UK legal and political scandal
pursuit of thousands of innocent subpostmasters for apparent financial shortfalls caused by faults in Horizon, an accounting software system developed by
British_Post_Office_scandal
Famine in British India during World War II
produces about 70% of the total annual crop. Crucially, the (debated) shortfall in rice production in 1942 occurred during the all-important aman harvest
Bengal_famine_of_1943
leading to additional evaporation. Summers are expected to become drier in the south of England, and it is expected that rainfall will happen more in bursts
Drought_in_the_United_Kingdom
Class of supercarriers for the U.S. Navy
April 2018. "FORD - CLASS CARRIERS: Lead Ship Testing and Reliability Shortfalls Will Limit Initial Fleet Capabilities" (PDF). GAO. September 2013. Archived
Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carrier
Gerald_R._Ford-class_aircraft_carrier
Combined military forces of Germany
Retrieved 21 January 2016. "Germany′s von der Leyen admits major Bundeswehr shortfalls". Deutsche Welle. 27 September 2014. Archived from the original on 28
Bundeswehr
offensive operations. He also claimed that Russian forces had similar shortfalls in artillery ammunition. BAE Systems signed an agreement to repair and
Timeline of the Russo-Ukrainian war (1 December 2023 – 31 March 2024)
Timeline_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_war_(1_December_2023_–_31_March_2024)
American politician
through the use of more technology and creating a plan to deal with an expected shortfall. Benge authored six bills signed into law by Governor Brad Henry from
Chris_Benge
Light rail system in Granada, Spain
completion was moved to early 2014. However, further delays resulted in a shortfall in funding, which was only resolved on 1 July 2014. The system finally
Granada_Metro
Country in Central Asia
at the end of the 11th grade. Uzbekistan has encountered severe budget shortfalls in its education programme. The education law of 1992 began the process
Uzbekistan
EXPECTED SHORTFALL
EXPECTED SHORTFALL
Boy/Male
Tamil
Expected
Boy/Male
Indian
Respected
Girl/Female
Gujarati, Hindu, Indian, Kannada, Malayalam, Marathi, Sindhi, Tamil, Telugu
Expected
Girl/Female
Arabic, Muslim
Respected
Boy/Male
Hindu, Indian
Desired; Expected
Boy/Male
Arabic, Muslim
Expected; Prospective; Anticipated; Awaited
Boy/Male
Arabic, Muslim
Respected
Boy/Male
Hindu, Indian, Traditional
Expected
Boy/Male
Tamil
Expected
Boy/Male
Hindu
Expected
Girl/Female
Tamil
Apekshaa | அபேகà¯à®·à®¾
Expected, Expectation
Apekshaa | அபேகà¯à®·à®¾
Boy/Male
Muslim
Expected
Boy/Male
Muslim
Respected
Girl/Female
Indian
Expected, Expectation
Boy/Male
Muslim
Expected
Girl/Female
Tamil
Apeksha | அபேகà¯à®·à®¾
Expected, Expectation
Apeksha | அபேகà¯à®·à®¾
Girl/Female
Muslim
Respected
Boy/Male
Arabic, Bengali, Gujarati, Hindu, Indian, Kannada, Muslim, Telugu
Expected
Girl/Female
Indian, Tamil
Expected
Girl/Female
Indian
Expected, Expectation
EXPECTED SHORTFALL
EXPECTED SHORTFALL
Boy/Male
Greek Shakespearean
A sea god.
Female
Ukrainian
, holy.
Male
Yiddish
Variant spelling of Yiddish Hershel, HERSCHEL means "deer."
Girl/Female
Arabic, Muslim
Hope
Boy/Male
English Scandinavian
From the white farm.
Girl/Female
Indian
Smart
Boy/Male
Tamil
Another name of Lord Krishna, Sweet like Honey
Male
English
 Variant spelling of English Colman, KOLMAN means "dove." Compare with another form of Kolman.
Girl/Female
Arabic, Assamese, Bengali, Hindu, Indian, Malayalam, Marathi, Muslim, Tamil
Beautiful
Boy/Male
Bengali, Hindu, Indian
God
EXPECTED SHORTFALL
EXPECTED SHORTFALL
EXPECTED SHORTFALL
EXPECTED SHORTFALL
EXPECTED SHORTFALL
v. t.
To look for (mentally); to look forward to, as to something that is believed to be about to happen or come; to have a previous apprehension of, whether of good or evil; to look for with some confidence; to anticipate; -- often followed by an infinitive, sometimes by a clause (with, or without, that); as, I expect to receive wages; I expect that the troops will be defeated.
infinitive.
Performed; executed; finished.
a.
Unexpected.
a.
Capable of being done, executed, or effected; practicable.
a.
Not expected or looked for.
a.
Unhoped; unexpected.
n.
The first or the expected second coming of Christ.
a.
Unexpected; unforeseen; unware.
imp. & p. p.
of Expect
n.
That which is expected or looked for.
a.
As might not be expected; -- serving to introduce what is unexpected or less expected.
a.
That may be expected or looked for.
a.
Not hoped or expected.
a.
Disposed or expected to respond; answering; according; corresponding.
a.
Not to be expected; inconceivable.
a.
Not to be expected or anticipated.
v. i.
To succeed; to turn out as expected.
a.
Not expected; coming without warning; sudden.
a.
Alt. of Exserted
n.
One who expects.