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Method of predicting future mortality rates
Mortality forecasting refers to the art and science of determining likely future mortality rates. It is especially important in rich countries with a high
Mortality_forecasting
Numerical algorithm for mortality forecasting
algorithm used in mortality forecasting and life expectancy forecasting. The input to the model is a matrix of age specific mortality rates ordered monotonically
Lee–Carter_model
Cubic function used for interpolation
Cubic polynomial splines have also been applied to mortality analysis and mortality forecasting. Cubic splines can be extended to functions of two or
Cubic_Hermite_spline
Mathematical equation related to human death rate
Gompertz–Makeham law of mortality is a mathematical model for the age pattern of death rates. It expresses the force of mortality (instantaneous hazard
Gompertz–Makeham law of mortality
Gompertz–Makeham_law_of_mortality
Measure of average lifespan in a given population
live longer and longer. Life expectancy forecasting is usually based on one of two different approaches: Forecasting the life expectancy directly, generally
Life_expectancy
Death of children under the age of 1
Infant mortality is the death of an infant before its first birthday. The occurrence of infant mortality in a population can be described by the infant
Infant_mortality
Estimated global human population
2020). "Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global
Human_population_projections
Study of human populations and their structures
age), and how they change through the interplay of fertility (births), mortality (deaths), and migration. Formal demography limits its object of study
Demography
Public health research institute in Seattle, Washington
25, 2017. IHME COVID-19 health service utilization forecasting team (26 March 2020). "Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Institute_for_Health_Metrics_and_Evaluation
Measure of public health
The Human Mortality Database (HMD) is a joint initiative of the Department of Demographics at the University of California, Berkeley in the United States
Human_Mortality_Database
Telecommunications service providers perform forecasting calculations to assist them in planning their networks. Accurate forecasting helps operators to make key investment
Telecommunications forecasting
Telecommunications_forecasting
turbines. Each wind turbine is estimated to kill 6 to 20 bats per year. Mortality, specifically in migratory birds and bats, seems to be increased in locations
Environmental impact of wind power
Environmental_impact_of_wind_power
(2015). "Inference and forecasting in the age-period-cohort model with unknown exposure with an application to mesothelioma mortality". Journal of the Royal
Bent_Nielsen
Prediction of risks to human health based on weather conditions
health forecasting project is forecasting the risk of exacerbation for people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). COPD health forecasts are
Health_forecasting
American ethologist and behavioral researcher (1917-1995)
Tribalism, and the Cheshire Cat: Three Paths from Now" (PDF). Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 4 (3): 263–282. doi:10.1016/0040-1625(73)90058-9.
John_B._Calhoun
pre-industrial population, with high birth and mortality rates and slow population growth, through a stage of falling mortality and faster rates of population growth
Demographics of the United Kingdom
Demographics_of_the_United_Kingdom
Statement about a future event
to specific points in time, the process is known as forecasting.[failed verification] Forecasting usually requires time series methods, while prediction
Prediction
Increase in the number of individuals in a population
2020). "Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global
Population_growth
Canadian economist (born 1948)
and its corresponding valuation based on free cash flow forecasts biases in mortality forecasts from COVID-19 the inadequate global response to global
Hersh_Shefrin
years. Maternal mortality rate was reduced by half, with the rate estimated at 521 deaths per 100,000 live births, and the child mortality rate estimated
Health_in_Afghanistan
Widespread, long-lived, straight-line wind storm
Joseph T. (December 1986). "Severe thunderstorm forecasting: A historical perspective". Weather and Forecasting. 1 (3): 164–189. Bibcode:1986WtFor...1..164S
Derecho
Evaluation of the credit risk of a prospective debtor
business, company or a government). It is the practice of predicting or forecasting the ability of a supposed debtor to pay back the debt or default. The
Credit_rating
Global population estimates report produced by the United Nations
future. These data include age‐ and sex‐specific breakdowns of fertility, mortality and migration, allowing calculation of detailed demographic indicators
World_Population_Prospects
Prolonged period of excessively hot weather
the mortality during a heat wave may be due to short-term forward mortality displacement. In some heat waves there is a decrease in overall mortality in
Heat_wave
Stand of trees losing health and dying
States. These diebacks were numerically analyzed to exclude natural tree mortality. It is hypothesized that a mature forest is more susceptible to extreme
Forest_dieback
Average lifetime number of children per woman
lifetime if she were subject to prevailing age-specific fertility and mortality rates in a given year. When the NRR is exactly 1, each generation of females
Total_fertility_rate
profiles. Light levels at which mortality of branches and individual trees occur are estimated for each species. Many of FORECAST's calculations are made at
FORECAST_(model)
capita of more than $57,000. Life expectancy at birth is 82.3 and infant mortality is 2.7 per 1000 live births. The population is ageing and by 2030, 20%
Health_in_Singapore
U.S. government-sponsored research project
democracies with low involvement in international trade and with high infant mortality are most prone to revolutions. The project began as an unclassified study
Political Instability Task Force
Political_Instability_Task_Force
Field of research
current longevity revolution (dramatic increase in human life expectancy), forecasting the future of human longevity, and identification of new strategies for
Biodemography of human longevity
Biodemography_of_human_longevity
Analyst of business risk and uncertainty
"Actuarial and Demographic Forecasting Methods". In Manton, Kenneth G.; Singer, Burton; Suzman, Richard M. (eds.). Forecasting the Health of Elderly Populations
Actuary
Statistics relating to COVID-19 in the United States
COVID-19 deaths that includes unconfirmed cases is to use the excess mortality, which is the overall number of deaths that exceed what would normally
Statistics of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States
Statistics_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States
2022 deadly floods in Eastern Cape province, South Africa
disaster. While these January flash floods have yielded a fairly low mortality compared to other flooding disasters in South Africa, the associated morbidity
2022_Eastern_Cape_floods
Assessment model for global systems
2012-12-15 at the Wayback Machine Director of National Intelligence Forecasting the Impacts of Environmental Constraints on Human Development For hosts
International_Futures
Species of bear native to the Arctic
G.; Douglas, D. C. (2008). "A Bayesian network modeling approach to forecasting the 21st century worldwide status of polar bears". Geophysical Monograph
Polar_bear
Process of breaking down organic matter
honor the dead Mortality Birthday effect Child mortality Adult mortality Excess mortality Gompertz–Makeham law of mortality Infant mortality Karoshi Maternal
Decomposition
Natural disaster in Texas, U.S.
(July 9, 2025). "Ted Cruz ensured Trump spending bill slashed weather forecasting funding". the Guardian. Retrieved August 9, 2025. Tufekci, Zeynep (July
July 2025 Central Texas floods
July_2025_Central_Texas_floods
Total number of living humans on Earth
uncertainty about its long-term trajectory due to changing fertility and mortality rates. The UN Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNDESA) has
World_population
Asymmetric sigmoid function
logistic function. The function was originally designed to describe human mortality, but since has been modified to be applied in biology, with regard to
Gompertz_function
1968–70 flu pandemic
affecting about 15% of the population (some 500,000 people infected), but the mortality rate was low and the clinical symptoms were mild. There were two waves
Hong_Kong_flu
doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-341. PMC 4068316. PMID 24942066. Surveillance, forecasting and response International conference on dengue control, 27–29 February
List of epidemics and pandemics
List_of_epidemics_and_pandemics
Genus of brown algae
CARICOOS, NOAA COASTWATCH OCEANVIEWER, Sargassum Observation Modelling and Forecasting, and SIMAR-SATsum Mitigation and cleanup strategies to implement the
Sargassum
immigration"), since immigration is the most uncertain component in population forecasting. Population (millions)Year20025030035040045020202040206020802100Actual
Demographics of the United States
Demographics_of_the_United_States
Statistics applied to risk in insurance and other financial products
This requires estimating future contingent events, such as the rates of mortality by age, as well as the development of mathematical techniques for discounting
Actuarial_science
Scientific study of suicide and self-destructive behaviors
Souza, Renato Oliveira e (2024-08-01). "Forecasting the impact of means restriction on the suicide mortality rate in the Region of the Americas: an ecological
Suicidology
of factors, such as very high fertility rates up to the 1960s, and low mortality rates. In addition, there was a surge in population as the Chinese Civil
Demographics_of_Taiwan
scenario of constant TFR at 2021 level and continued improvements in mortality Population by Sex and Age Group (as of 1 November 2010). For statistical
Demographics_of_China
Continuous probability distribution
Weibull distribution as a general model for forecasting technological change". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 18 (3): 247–56. doi:10
Weibull_distribution
Mass of Sargassum in Atlantic Ocean
future, thus creating a sustainable use for biomass. In the future, forecasting events and taking preventative action will be more cost effective than
Great_Atlantic_Sargassum_Belt
intestinal problems, and parasitosis being the leading causes for infant mortality in the province. The following table shows the main economic indicators
Economy_of_Panama
Unusual, severe or unseasonal weather
pollution and ozone in the air[citation needed], which leads to higher mortality in the population[citation needed]. It has been estimated that extra pollution
Extreme_weather
Series of wildfires in California, United States
disrupted healthcare, and stress on the system played a part in the excess mortality. Wildfire Alliance statistics indicated that the Palisades fire alone
January 2025 Southern California wildfires
January_2025_Southern_California_wildfires
Nation with a relatively low living standard
health. The burden of infectious diseases, maternal mortality, child mortality and infant mortality are typically substantially higher in those countries
Developing_country
and issued warnings for Storm Martin on the morning of 27 December, forecasting wind gusts of up to 130 km/h inland and 150 km/h along the coasts and
Late December 1999 European storms
Late_December_1999_European_storms
Aging population of Russia
demographic transition, Russia stands out within this group because of its high mortality rate and relatively low life expectancy, particularly among men. From
Aging_of_Russia
United States government public health agency
communications, including a temporary suspension of the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. The administration also imposed content restrictions on
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Centers_for_Disease_Control_and_Prevention
Hypothetical global-scale disaster risk
apparent likelihood Foresight (psychology) – Behavior-based backcasting & forecasting factors Future of Earth – Long-term future of planet Earth Future of
Global_catastrophic_risk
Ongoing overuse of opioid medication in the US
2018, there was a threefold increase in mortality related to cocaine use, and a fivefold increase in mortality related to psychostimulants like methamphetamine
Opioid epidemic in the United States
Opioid_epidemic_in_the_United_States
Blossom of a cherry tree
largely taken over by private forecasting companies, with the JMA switching to focus only on data collection that than forecasting. The blossoming begins in
Cherry_blossom
the Jewish population, about 5.25 million would be Haredi. Overall, the forecast projected that 49% of the population would be either Haredi Jews (29%)
Demographics_of_Israel
Human between birth and puberty
2020). "Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global
Child
Global climate phenomenon
Meteorological Department (IMD) incorporates ENSO monitoring into its operational forecasting framework, as ENSO is one of the principal drivers of interannual variability
El_Niño–Southern_Oscillation
Namibia's health indicators have improved in several areas, including child mortality and some communicable-disease outcomes, although HIV/AIDS remains a significant
Health_in_Namibia
Prevention of the occurrence of diseases
still far from the fourth Millennium Development Goal to decrease child mortality by two-thirds by 2015. Of these deaths, about 64% were due to infection
Preventive_healthcare
formation source of Atlantic and Pacific hurricanes. Africa's weather forecasting infrastructure is significantly underdeveloped, affecting its ability
Climate_of_Africa
increases; in 1987, the mortality ratio was 7.2 per 100,000. As of 2015[update], the US rate is double the maternal mortality rate in Belgium or Canada
Healthcare in the United States
Healthcare_in_the_United_States
000); IMR = infant mortality rate per 1,000 births; TFR = total fertility rate (number of children per woman); IMR = infant mortality rate per 1,000 births
Demographics_of_Ethiopia
Graphical illustration showing distribution of age groups in a population
the older population is declining with age, due to a combination of mortality and an increase in the number of births over time. There are usually more
Population_pyramid
successful businesses and reduced tax revenue. Unemployment rates rose to 45%. Forecasts of Hurricane Maria's track from the National Hurricane Center proved to
Effects of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico
Effects_of_Hurricane_Maria_in_Puerto_Rico
2017 supernatural horror film by Andy Muschietti
the two worst weekends of the year thus far. He also stated that he's forecasting an $85 million opening for It, with anything higher not being a surprise
It_(2017_film)
Problem in demographic economics
2020). "Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global
Sub-replacement_fertility
Pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2
PMID 32442526. Wu JT, Leung K, Leung GM (February 2020). "Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak
COVID-19_pandemic
2013–2016 major disease outbreak
commitment of substantial international resources. It caused significant mortality, with a high case fatality rate. By the end of the epidemic, 28,616 people
Western African Ebola epidemic
Western_African_Ebola_epidemic
West African dry weather season
study found that dust carried by the Harmattan increases infant and child mortality, as well as persistent adverse health impacts on surviving children. Humidity
Harmattan
Australian academic
unified approach to mortality modelling using state-space framework: characterisation, identification, estimation and forecasting". Annals of Actuarial
Gareth_W._Peters
Trump's false assertion that the United States has the lowest COVID-19 mortality rate in the world and challenged Trump's assertion that Democratic candidate
List of The Weekly with Charlie Pickering episodes
List_of_The_Weekly_with_Charlie_Pickering_episodes
Branch of sociology
(2020-10-17). "Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global
Sociology_of_death
Technique of providing both cardiac and respiratory support
myocardial infarction, ECLS did not improve survival (as measured via 30-day mortality); on the contrary, it resulted in increased complications (e.g., major
Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation
Extracorporeal_membrane_oxygenation
and cardiovascular disease, as well as significant increases in early mortality and economic costs. Obesity has long been a common stereotype associated
Obesity_in_the_United_States
Country in Eastern Europe and North Asia
with 0.859 males to every female, due to its high male mortality rate. Russia's infant mortality rate is very low (4 per 1,000 live births). Cardiovascular
Russia
subjective interpretation of The Limits to Growth, a 1970 MIT computer study forecasting economic, social and political collapse by no later than 2020. "Recycling:
List of The Nature of Things episodes
List_of_The_Nature_of_Things_episodes
Spread of planktonic algae in water
be the cause of seafood poisoning from the neurotoxins. Historically, forecasting algal blooms relied heavily on physical water sampling and hydrodynamic
Algal_bloom
Country in Southern and Western Europe
original on 10 August 2011. Retrieved 3 May 2009. ISTAT. "Crude birth rates, mortality rates and marriage rates 2005–2008" (PDF) (in Italian). Archived (PDF)
Italy
Country in Southeast Asia
expectancy stood at 80.9 years for women and 71.5 for men, and the infant mortality rate was 17 per 1,000 live births. Since the partition, North Vietnam
Vietnam
Country in Southern Africa
Douglas (3 March 2020). "SA's murder rate is worse than the coronavirus mortality rate". iol.co.za. IOL. Archived from the original on 4 August 2021. Retrieved
South_Africa
Widespread scarcity of food
followed by regional malnutrition, starvation, epidemic, and increased mortality. Every inhabited continent in the world has experienced a period of famine
Famine
Table of birth and mortality since 1900 (c)= 2022 census results. Source: General Register Office for Scotland Birth and Mortality statistics from 1900
Demographics_of_Scotland
Species of planthopper indigenous to Southeast Asia
Kyeong-Ju (1 December 2012). "Environmentally-friendly control methods and forecasting the hatching time Lycorma delicatula (Hemiptera: Fulgoridae) in Jeonnam
Spotted_lanternfly
highest birth rate during the period, though usually offset by very high mortality rates. Average Number of Births & Deaths, Average Birth Rate, Death Rate
Demographics_of_Bulgaria
create the Heat Wave Forecasting and Warning System bulletins. The Ministry of Health set up Heat Wave Warning and Forecasting System (HHWWS) bulletins
Health_in_Italy
Circumstances, mechanisms, and factors of tobacco consumption on human health
smoking-attributable mortality, years of potential life lost, and economic costs—United States, 1995–1999". MMWR. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. 51
Health effects of smoking tobacco
Health_effects_of_smoking_tobacco
projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis". The Lancet. 406 (10500): 283–294
USAID in the second Trump administration
USAID_in_the_second_Trump_administration
population growth since the mid 20th century is the decrease of infant mortality and general increase of life expectancy without a corresponding reduction
Demographics_of_Africa
products. Additional cuts affect the technology branch of the Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics, which was established during the COVID-19 pandemic
Domestic policy of the second Trump administration
Domestic_policy_of_the_second_Trump_administration
American right-wing populist political ideology
/ Top Threats to Birds (U.S. only. Ordered by Median Estimate of Bird Mortality Annually. As of 2017.)". U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2017. Archived
Trumpism
2024 film by George Miller
Twisted' Role in 'Furiosa', Having Imposter Syndrome, and Facing His Mortality with 'Limitless' Series". Variety. Archived from the original on 29 May
Furiosa:_A_Mad_Max_Saga
Industry involved with discovery, development, production and marketing of drugs
diarrhea were the three leading causes of death in the United States and mortality in the first year of life exceeded 10%.[failed verification] In 1911 arsphenamine
Pharmaceutical_industry
Country in South Asia
increased from 49.7 years in 1970–1975 to 72.0 years in 2023. The under-five mortality rate for the country was 113 per 1,000 live births in 1994 whereas in
India
German far-right politician (born 1979)
know, the virus "poses a higher risk of infection and a greater risk of mortality than the common flu." After the shutdown, however Weidel called for the
Alice_Weidel
Liangpei; Gao, Meng (13 May 2026). "Reduced urban air pollution and mortality from the transition to new energy vehicles in China". Nature Health. doi:10
2026_in_climate_change
MORTALITY FORECASTING
MORTALITY FORECASTING
Boy/Male
Hindu
Morality, Superior
Boy/Male
Indian
Morality
Girl/Female
Bengali, Gujarati, Hindu, Indian, Kannada, Malayalam, Marathi, Sanskrit, Telugu
Immortality
Boy/Male
Tamil
Hrishab | ஹà¯à®°à¯€à®·à®¾à®ª
Morality
Hrishab | ஹà¯à®°à¯€à®·à®¾à®ª
Girl/Female
Hindu, Indian
Morality
Boy/Male
Tamil
Morality, Superior
Boy/Male
Bengali, Gujarati, Hindu, Indian, Traditional
Morality
Boy/Male
Bengali, Gujarati, Hindu, Indian, Traditional
Morality
Boy/Male
Hindu
Morality, Superior
Boy/Male
Buddhist, Indian
Morality Preserver
Boy/Male
Tamil
Morality, Superior
Girl/Female
Tamil
Sanjivani | ஸஂஜீவநீ
Immortality
Sanjivani | ஸஂஜீவநீ
Girl/Female
Hindu, Indian, Traditional
Immortality
Girl/Female
Tamil
Sanjeevani | ஸஂஜீவநீ
Immortality
Sanjeevani | ஸஂஜீவநீ
Girl/Female
Tamil
Immortality
Boy/Male
Indian, Sanskrit
Morality
Boy/Male
Gujarati, Hindu, Indian, Kannada, Malayalam, Marathi, Tamil, Telugu
King; Morality; Superior; Romantic Morality
Boy/Male
Tamil
Morality, Superior
Girl/Female
Hindu, Indian, Malayalam, Marathi, Punjabi, Sikh, Tamil
Immortality
Boy/Male
Hindu
Morality, Superior
MORTALITY FORECASTING
MORTALITY FORECASTING
Boy/Male
Welsh
worthy lord.
Girl/Female
Tamil
Bravery (King of Matsya- where the Pandavas spent their final year of exile in disguise.)
Girl/Female
British, English
Name of a Liquor
Girl/Female
German French
Archer.
Surname or Lastname
English
English : variant spelling of Auger.
Boy/Male
Hindu, Indian, Punjabi, Sikh
Victor; Warrior in Battle
Boy/Male
Tamil
Divyang | திவà¯à®¯à®¾à®‚க
Divine body
Boy/Male
Sikh
Bringer of destiny
Surname or Lastname
English
English : variant spelling of Fawcett.
Girl/Female
American, Australian, British, Chinese, Christian, Danish, Dutch, English, French, German, Greek, Italian, Latin, Polish, Spanish, Swedish, Ukrainian
Pearl; Child of Light; Latinate Form of Margaret; Daisy Flower
MORTALITY FORECASTING
MORTALITY FORECASTING
MORTALITY FORECASTING
MORTALITY FORECASTING
MORTALITY FORECASTING
n.
Quality of being mortal; mortality.
n.
Death; destruction.
n.
A kind of allegorical play, so termed because it consisted of discourses in praise of morality between actors representing such characters as Charity, Faith, Death, Vice, etc. Such plays were occasionally exhibited as late as the reign of Henry VIII.
n.
Exemption from oblivion; perpetuity; as, the immortality of fame.
n.
Human life; the life of a mortal being.
n.
The practice of the moral duties; rectitude of life; conformity to the standard of right; virtue; as, we often admire the politeness of men whose morality we question.
pl.
of Formality
adv.
In a mortal manner; so as to cause death; as, mortally wounded.
pl.
of Immortality
n.
The quality or state of being total; as, the totality of an eclipse.
n.
Immortality; also, the nectar conferring immortality.
n.
A morality play. See Morality, 5.
p. pr. & vb. n.
of Mortalize
n.
Those who are, or that which is, mortal; the human cace; humanity; human nature.
pl.
of Morality
n.
The whole sum or number of deaths in a given time or a given community; also, the proportion of deaths to population, or to a specific number of the population; death rate; as, a time of great, or low, mortality; the mortality among the settlers was alarming.
adv.
In an extreme degree; to the point of dying or causing death; desperately; as, mortally jealous.
imp. & p. p.
of Mortalize
n.
The quality of being lethal; mortality.
n.
The quality or state of being immortal; exemption from death and annihilation; unending existance; as, the immortality of the soul.