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Method of predicting future mortality rates
Mortality forecasting refers to the art and science of determining likely future mortality rates. It is especially important in rich countries with a high
Mortality_forecasting
Numerical algorithm for mortality forecasting
algorithm used in mortality forecasting and life expectancy forecasting. The input to the model is a matrix of age specific mortality rates ordered monotonically
Lee–Carter_model
Cubic function used for interpolation
Cubic polynomial splines have also been applied to mortality analysis and mortality forecasting. Cubic splines can be extended to functions of two or
Cubic_Hermite_spline
Death of children under the age of 1
Infant mortality is the death of an infant before its first birthday. The occurrence of infant mortality in a population can be described by the infant
Infant_mortality
Mathematical equation related to human death rate
Gompertz–Makeham law of mortality is a mathematical model for the age pattern of death rates. It expresses the force of mortality (instantaneous hazard
Gompertz–Makeham law of mortality
Gompertz–Makeham_law_of_mortality
Measure of average lifespan in a given population
live longer and longer. Life expectancy forecasting is usually based on one of two different approaches: Forecasting the life expectancy directly, generally
Life_expectancy
Estimated global human population
2020). "Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global
Human_population_projections
Study of human populations and their structures
age), and how they change through the interplay of fertility (births), mortality (deaths), and migration. Formal demography limits its object of study
Demography
Public health research institute in Seattle, Washington
25, 2017. IHME COVID-19 health service utilization forecasting team (26 March 2020). "Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Institute_for_Health_Metrics_and_Evaluation
Telecommunications service providers perform forecasting calculations to assist them in planning their networks. Accurate forecasting helps operators to make key investment
Telecommunications forecasting
Telecommunications_forecasting
Measure of public health
The Human Mortality Database (HMD) is a joint initiative of the Department of Demographics at the University of California, Berkeley in the United States
Human_Mortality_Database
Prediction of risks to human health based on weather conditions
health forecasting project is forecasting the risk of exacerbation for people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). COPD health forecasts are
Health_forecasting
(2015). "Inference and forecasting in the age-period-cohort model with unknown exposure with an application to mesothelioma mortality". Journal of the Royal
Bent_Nielsen
turbines. Each wind turbine is estimated to kill 6 to 20 bats per year. Mortality, specifically in migratory birds and bats, seems to be increased in locations
Environmental impact of wind power
Environmental_impact_of_wind_power
pre-industrial population, with high birth and mortality rates and slow population growth, through a stage of falling mortality and faster rates of population growth
Demographics of the United Kingdom
Demographics_of_the_United_Kingdom
Canadian economist (born 1948)
and its corresponding valuation based on free cash flow forecasts biases in mortality forecasts from COVID-19 the inadequate global response to global
Hersh_Shefrin
Widespread, long-lived, straight-line wind storm
Joseph T. (December 1986). "Severe thunderstorm forecasting: A historical perspective". Weather and Forecasting. 1 (3): 164–189. Bibcode:1986WtFor...1..164S
Derecho
Statistics relating to COVID-19 in the United States
COVID-19 deaths that includes unconfirmed cases is to use the excess mortality, which is the overall number of deaths that exceed what would normally
Statistics of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States
Statistics_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States
American ethologist and behavioral researcher (1917-1995)
Tribalism, and the Cheshire Cat: Three Paths from Now" (PDF). Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 4 (3): 263–282. doi:10.1016/0040-1625(73)90058-9.
John_B._Calhoun
Statement about a future event
to specific points in time, the process is known as forecasting.[failed verification] Forecasting usually requires time series methods, while prediction
Prediction
Global population estimates report produced by the United Nations
future. These data include age‐ and sex‐specific breakdowns of fertility, mortality and migration, allowing calculation of detailed demographic indicators
World_Population_Prospects
profiles. Light levels at which mortality of branches and individual trees occur are estimated for each species. Many of FORECAST's calculations are made at
FORECAST_(model)
Mitchel (1 April 2014). "Spatial Analyses of the 2011 Joplin Tornado Mortality: Deaths by Interpolated Damage Zones and Location of Victims". Weather
List of disasters in Missouri by death toll
List_of_disasters_in_Missouri_by_death_toll
Denisa; Salama, Peter (March 2005). "Where giving birth is a forecast of death: maternal mortality in four districts of Afghanistan, 1999–2002". The Lancet
Health_in_Afghanistan
Field of research
current longevity revolution (dramatic increase in human life expectancy), forecasting the future of human longevity, and identification of new strategies for
Biodemography of human longevity
Biodemography_of_human_longevity
capita of more than $57,000. Life expectancy at birth is 82.3 and infant mortality is 2.7 per 1000 live births. The population is ageing and by 2030, 20%
Health_in_Singapore
Stand of trees losing health and dying
States. These diebacks were numerically analyzed to exclude natural tree mortality. It is hypothesized that a mature forest is more susceptible to extreme
Forest_dieback
Increase in the number of individuals in a population
2020). "Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global
Population_growth
Analyst of business risk and uncertainty
"Actuarial and Demographic Forecasting Methods". In Manton, Kenneth G.; Singer, Burton; Suzman, Richard M. (eds.). Forecasting the Health of Elderly Populations
Actuary
Average lifetime number of children per woman
high as 3.5 in undeveloped countries because of higher mortality rates, especially child mortality. The global average for the replacement total fertility
Total_fertility_rate
U.S. government-sponsored research project
democracies with low involvement in international trade and with high infant mortality are most prone to revolutions. The project began as an unclassified study
Political Instability Task Force
Political_Instability_Task_Force
Species of bear native to the Arctic
G.; Douglas, D. C. (2008). "A Bayesian network modeling approach to forecasting the 21st century worldwide status of polar bears". Geophysical Monograph
Polar_bear
Process of breaking down organic matter
honor the dead Mortality Birthday effect Child mortality Adult mortality Excess mortality Gompertz–Makeham law of mortality Infant mortality Karoshi Maternal
Decomposition
Asymmetric sigmoid function
logistic function. The function was originally designed to describe human mortality, but since has been modified to be applied in biology, with regard to
Gompertz_function
Namibia's health indicators have improved in several areas, including child mortality and some communicable-disease outcomes, although HIV/AIDS remains a significant
Health_in_Namibia
Assessment model for global systems
2012-12-15 at the Wayback Machine Director of National Intelligence Forecasting the Impacts of Environmental Constraints on Human Development For hosts
International_Futures
Genus of brown algae
CARICOOS, NOAA COASTWATCH OCEANVIEWER, Sargassum Observation Modelling and Forecasting, and SIMAR-SATsum Mitigation and cleanup strategies to implement the
Sargassum
Mass of Sargassum in Atlantic Ocean
future, thus creating a sustainable use for biomass. In the future, forecasting events and taking preventative action will be more cost effective than
Great_Atlantic_Sargassum_Belt
thunderstorms in the Benelux area. Between 18 and 29 June, the excess mortality rate in the country was 39 percent, with 1,222 excess deaths reported
2026_European_heatwaves
Statistics applied to risk in insurance and other financial products
This requires estimating future contingent events, such as the rates of mortality by age, as well as the development of mathematical techniques for discounting
Actuarial_science
Scientific study of suicide and self-destructive behaviors
Souza, Renato Oliveira e (2024-08-01). "Forecasting the impact of means restriction on the suicide mortality rate in the Region of the Americas: an ecological
Suicidology
Prolonged period of excessively hot weather
the mortality during a heat wave may be due to short-term forward mortality displacement. In some heat waves there is a decrease in overall mortality in
Heat_wave
Prevention of the occurrence of diseases
still far from the fourth Millennium Development Goal to decrease child mortality by two-thirds by 2015. Of these deaths, about 64% were due to infection
Preventive_healthcare
1968–70 flu pandemic
affecting about 15% of the population (some 500,000 people infected), but the mortality rate was low and the clinical symptoms were mild. There were two waves
Hong_Kong_flu
Natural disaster in Texas, U.S.
(July 9, 2025). "Ted Cruz ensured Trump spending bill slashed weather forecasting funding". the Guardian. Retrieved August 9, 2025. Tufekci, Zeynep (July
July 2025 Central Texas floods
July_2025_Central_Texas_floods
immigration"), since immigration is the most uncertain component in population forecasting. Population (millions)Year20025030035040045020202040206020802100Actual
Demographics of the United States
Demographics_of_the_United_States
Evaluation of the credit risk of a prospective debtor
business, company or a government). It is the practice of predicting or forecasting the ability of a supposed debtor to pay back the debt or default. The
Credit_rating
Total number of living humans on Earth
uncertainty about its long-term trajectory due to changing fertility and mortality rates. The UN Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNDESA) has
World_population
Office weather forecast UK". YouTube. Retrieved 24 July 2026. BBC News (28 July 2026). "Fourth heatwave grips parts of UK with 35C forecast". Retrieved 29
2026_United_Kingdom_heatwaves
Nation with a relatively low living standard
health. The burden of infectious diseases, maternal mortality, child mortality and infant mortality are typically substantially higher in those countries
Developing_country
2022 deadly floods in Eastern Cape province, South Africa
disaster. While these January flash floods have yielded a fairly low mortality compared to other flooding disasters in South Africa, the associated morbidity
2022_Eastern_Cape_floods
doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-341. PMC 4068316. PMID 24942066. Surveillance, forecasting and response International conference on dengue control, 27–29 February
List of epidemics and pandemics
List_of_epidemics_and_pandemics
intestinal problems, and parasitosis being the leading causes for infant mortality in the province. The following table shows the main economic indicators
Economy_of_Panama
2023–24 concert tour by Depeche Mode
and More". Pitchfork. Retrieved 25 October 2023. "Depeche Mode defied mortality in New Orleans 30 years after singer nearly died here". nola.com. 8 October
Memento_Mori_World_Tour
Series of wildfires in California, United States
disrupted healthcare, and stress on the system played a part in the excess mortality. Wildfire Alliance statistics indicated that the Palisades fire alone
January 2025 Southern California wildfires
January_2025_Southern_California_wildfires
2020 wildfire in Colorado
Denver and Boulder issued a red flag warning for the following day, forecasting winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph and relative humidity levels
East_Troublesome_Fire
Aging population of Russia
demographic transition, Russia stands out within this group because of its high mortality rate and relatively low life expectancy, particularly among men. From
Aging_of_Russia
successful businesses and reduced tax revenue. Unemployment rates rose to 45%. Forecasts of Hurricane Maria's track from the National Hurricane Center proved to
Effects of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico
Effects_of_Hurricane_Maria_in_Puerto_Rico
United States government public health agency
communications, including a temporary suspension of the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. The administration also imposed content restrictions on
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Centers_for_Disease_Control_and_Prevention
2017 supernatural horror film by Andy Muschietti
the two worst weekends of the year thus far. He also stated that he's forecasting an $85 million opening for It, with anything higher not being a surprise
It_(2017_film)
Species of planthopper indigenous to Southeast Asia
Kyeong-Ju (1 December 2012). "Environmentally-friendly control methods and forecasting the hatching time Lycorma delicatula (Hemiptera: Fulgoridae) in Jeonnam
Spotted_lanternfly
Human between birth and puberty
2020). "Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global
Child
2007 tornado in southwest Kansas, United States
the Greensburg, Kansas, Tornadic Supercell on 4 May 2007". Weather and Forecasting. 24 (4): 899–920. Bibcode:2009WtFor..24..899B. doi:10.1175/2009WAF2222206
Greensburg_tornado
2015 book by Yuval Noah Harari
issues are discussed, such as humanism, individualism, transhumanism, and mortality. The book sets out to examine possibilities of the future of Homo sapiens
Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow
Homo_Deus:_A_Brief_History_of_Tomorrow
Pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2
PMID 32442526. Wu JT, Leung K, Leung GM (February 2020). "Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak
COVID-19_pandemic
Dismantling and transfer of USAID under Donald Trump
projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis". The Lancet. 406 (10500): 283–294
USAID in the second Trump administration
USAID_in_the_second_Trump_administration
Country in South Asia
increased from 49.7 years in 1970–1975 to 72.0 years in 2023. The under-five mortality rate for the country was 113 per 1,000 live births in 1994 whereas in
India
Continuous probability distribution
Weibull distribution as a general model for forecasting technological change". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 18 (3): 247–56. doi:10
Weibull_distribution
Spread of planktonic algae in water
be the cause of seafood poisoning from the neurotoxins. Historically, forecasting algal blooms relied heavily on physical water sampling and hydrodynamic
Algal_bloom
Country in Eastern Europe and North Asia
with 0.859 males to every female, due to its high male mortality rate. Russia's infant mortality rate is very low (4 per 1,000 live births). Cardiovascular
Russia
Cancer of plasma cells
"Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis
Multiple_myeloma
Famine in British India during World War II
an area of 77,442 square miles, according to a 1941 census. Declining mortality rates, induced in part by the pre-1943 success of the British Raj in famine
Bengal_famine_of_1943
of factors, such as very high fertility rates up to the 1960s, and low mortality rates. In addition, there was a surge in population as the Chinese Civil
Demographics_of_Taiwan
increases; in 1987, the mortality ratio was 7.2 per 100,000. As of 2015[update], the US rate is double the maternal mortality rate in Belgium or Canada
Healthcare in the United States
Healthcare_in_the_United_States
Unusual, severe or unseasonal weather
pollution and ozone in the air[citation needed], which leads to higher mortality in the population[citation needed]. It has been estimated that extra pollution
Extreme_weather
000); IMR = infant mortality rate per 1,000 births; TFR = total fertility rate (number of children per woman); IMR = infant mortality rate per 1,000 births
Demographics_of_Ethiopia
American right-wing populist political ideology
/ Top Threats to Birds (U.S. only. Ordered by Median Estimate of Bird Mortality Annually. As of 2017.)". U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2017. Archived
Trumpism
scenario of constant TFR at 2021 level and continued improvements in mortality Population by Sex and Age Group (as of 1 November 2010). For statistical
Demographics_of_China
German far-right politician (born 1979)
know, the virus "poses a higher risk of infection and a greater risk of mortality than the common flu." After the shutdown, however Weidel called for the
Alice_Weidel
1958–1962 Chinese socioeconomic campaign
famine showed higher infant and early life mortality, but exhibit a "mortality crossover" pattern, with mortality rates leveling off or even dropping relative
Great_Leap_Forward
Country in Northern Europe
February 2021. Retrieved 3 April 2024. "Infant mortality rate - Total". UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation.[permanent dead link] "Suicide
Lithuania
2024 film by George Miller
Twisted' Role in 'Furiosa', Having Imposter Syndrome, and Facing His Mortality with 'Limitless' Series". Variety. Archived from the original on 29 May
Furiosa:_A_Mad_Max_Saga
Species of whale found in the North Atlantic Ocean
which together account for nearly half of all North Atlantic right whale mortality since 1970, are their two greatest threats to recovery. Like other right
North_Atlantic_right_whale
Trump's false assertion that the United States has the lowest COVID-19 mortality rate in the world and challenged Trump's assertion that Democratic candidate
List of The Weekly with Charlie Pickering episodes
List_of_The_Weekly_with_Charlie_Pickering_episodes
Country in Southeast and Central Europe
the world in life expectancy with 76.7 years and it had a low infant mortality rate of 4.6 per 1,000 live births. The principal cause of death in 2024
Serbia
Country in Central and South Asia
around 60 years. The country's maternal mortality rate is 396 deaths/100,000 live births and its infant mortality rate is 66 to 112.8 deaths in every 1
Afghanistan
Major earthquake in Northern California
Saunders TM; Robinson AL; Hatch DL; Parrish RG (June 1994). "Profile of mortality from the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake using coroner and medical examiner
1989_Loma_Prieta_earthquake
American political commentator and speechwriter
projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis". The Lancet. 406 (10500): XXX–XXX
Mike_Benz
Country in South America
increased significantly between 1940 and 1970, because of a decline in the mortality rate, even though the birth rate underwent a slight decline. In the 1940s
Brazil
decimated in an intense event. Besides immediate mortality from the fires, there were on-going mortalities after the fires from starvation, lack of shelter
2019–20 Australian bushfire season
2019–20_Australian_bushfire_season
Australian academic
unified approach to mortality modelling using state-space framework: characterisation, identification, estimation and forecasting". Annals of Actuarial
Gareth_W._Peters
Blossom of a cherry tree
largely taken over by private forecasting companies, with the JMA switching to focus only on data collection that than forecasting. The blossoming begins in
Cherry_blossom
Study of health and disease within a population
and Political Observations ... upon the Bills of Mortality in 1662. In it, he analysed the mortality rolls in London before the Great Plague, presented
Epidemiology
Mw 7.6 earthquake in Hebei, China
International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (30 May 2011), "Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines
1976_Tangshan_earthquake
Branch of sociology
(2020-10-17). "Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global
Sociology_of_death
Female reproductive system health issue
through a larger incision, known as a laparotomy. Maternal morbidity and mortality are reduced with treatment. The rate of ectopic pregnancy is about 11
Ectopic_pregnancy
population growth since the mid 20th century is the decrease of infant mortality and general increase of life expectancy without a corresponding reduction
Demographics_of_Africa
Heat waves affecting Europe in 2023
672 people died. The mortality was 56% higher among women in comparison to men. The countries with the highest rates of mortality were Italy, Greece, Spain
2023_European_heatwaves
Country in Southern and Western Europe
original on 10 August 2011. Retrieved 3 May 2009. ISTAT. "Crude birth rates, mortality rates and marriage rates 2005–2008" (PDF) (in Italian). Archived (PDF)
Italy
Country in Southeastern Europe
significant decline from 8.5 per 1,000 in 2016 and 14.5 in 1981. The mortality rate in 2025 is 11.53 per 1,000 compared to 11.2 in 2016 and 8.9 in 1981
Greece
MORTALITY FORECASTING
MORTALITY FORECASTING
Girl/Female
Hindu, Indian, Traditional
Immortality
Boy/Male
Bengali, Gujarati, Hindu, Indian, Traditional
Morality
Boy/Male
Indian
Morality
Boy/Male
Gujarati, Hindu, Indian, Kannada, Malayalam, Marathi, Tamil, Telugu
King; Morality; Superior; Romantic Morality
Girl/Female
Tamil
Sanjeevani | ஸஂஜீவநீ
Immortality
Sanjeevani | ஸஂஜீவநீ
Boy/Male
Bengali, Gujarati, Hindu, Indian, Traditional
Morality
Girl/Female
Hindu, Indian
Morality
Boy/Male
Tamil
Morality, Superior
Boy/Male
Indian, Sanskrit
Morality
Boy/Male
Hindu
Morality, Superior
Boy/Male
Tamil
Hrishab | ஹà¯à®°à¯€à®·à®¾à®ª
Morality
Hrishab | ஹà¯à®°à¯€à®·à®¾à®ª
Boy/Male
Tamil
Morality, Superior
Girl/Female
Tamil
Sanjivani | ஸஂஜீவநீ
Immortality
Sanjivani | ஸஂஜீவநீ
Boy/Male
Hindu
Morality, Superior
Boy/Male
Tamil
Morality, Superior
Boy/Male
Buddhist, Indian
Morality Preserver
Girl/Female
Bengali, Gujarati, Hindu, Indian, Kannada, Malayalam, Marathi, Sanskrit, Telugu
Immortality
Girl/Female
Hindu, Indian, Malayalam, Marathi, Punjabi, Sikh, Tamil
Immortality
Girl/Female
Tamil
Immortality
Boy/Male
Hindu
Morality, Superior
MORTALITY FORECASTING
MORTALITY FORECASTING
Boy/Male
Hindu, Indian, Marathi, Traditional
He who Forgives
Surname or Lastname
English
English : variant of Widdowson.
Girl/Female
French
Dark and elfin.
Girl/Female
Tamil
Varnisha | வரà¯à®¨à¯€à®·à®¾
Boy/Male
Welsh English
Handsome.
Girl/Female
Gujarati, Indian, Kannada
To Get Something
Boy/Male
Hindu, Indian, Marathi
Lord of the Gods
Boy/Male
American, British, Danish, Dutch, English, French, German, Hindu, Indian, Latin, Swiss
From the Raven Farm; Champagne; Fine Brandies are the Principal Product of Rheims; A Town in Central France
Boy/Male
Buddhist, Indian
Great Enlightenment
Surname or Lastname
English and French
English and French : from the Middle English, Old French personal name Perrin, a pet form of French Pierre (see Peter).A Perrin from Brittany is documented in Montreal in 1661. Secondary surnames associated with Perrin are Garao, Duteau, and Languedoc.
MORTALITY FORECASTING
MORTALITY FORECASTING
MORTALITY FORECASTING
MORTALITY FORECASTING
MORTALITY FORECASTING
n.
Exemption from oblivion; perpetuity; as, the immortality of fame.
imp. & p. p.
of Mortalize
pl.
of Immortality
n.
Human life; the life of a mortal being.
adv.
In a mortal manner; so as to cause death; as, mortally wounded.
pl.
of Formality
pl.
of Morality
n.
The whole sum or number of deaths in a given time or a given community; also, the proportion of deaths to population, or to a specific number of the population; death rate; as, a time of great, or low, mortality; the mortality among the settlers was alarming.
adv.
In an extreme degree; to the point of dying or causing death; desperately; as, mortally jealous.
n.
A kind of allegorical play, so termed because it consisted of discourses in praise of morality between actors representing such characters as Charity, Faith, Death, Vice, etc. Such plays were occasionally exhibited as late as the reign of Henry VIII.
n.
A morality play. See Morality, 5.
n.
The quality of being lethal; mortality.
n.
Immortality; also, the nectar conferring immortality.
n.
The quality or state of being immortal; exemption from death and annihilation; unending existance; as, the immortality of the soul.
n.
The quality or state of being total; as, the totality of an eclipse.
p. pr. & vb. n.
of Mortalize
n.
The practice of the moral duties; rectitude of life; conformity to the standard of right; virtue; as, we often admire the politeness of men whose morality we question.
n.
Death; destruction.
n.
Those who are, or that which is, mortal; the human cace; humanity; human nature.
n.
Quality of being mortal; mortality.