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In population genetics, extinction probability is the chance of an inherited trait becoming extinct as a function of time t. If t = ∞ this may be the complement
Extinction_probability
Model for the extinction of family names
number of children of that descendant. The extinction probability (i.e. the probability of final extinction) is given by lim n → ∞ Pr ( X n = 0 ) . {\displaystyle
Galton–Watson_process
End of the human species
to human extinction. Later philosophers such as Al-Ghazali, William of Ockham, and Gerolamo Cardano expanded the study of logic and probability and began
Human_extinction
Kind of stochastic process
process theory provides a tractable framework for calculating extinction probabilities for population processes in cases where individuals act independently
Branching_process
Concept in evolutionary biology
hypothesis was intended to explain the constant (age-independent) extinction probability as observed in the paleontological record caused by co-evolution
Red_Queen_hypothesis
Mass extinction event about 66 million years ago
Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) extinction event, formerly known as the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K–T) extinction event, was a major mass extinction of three-quarters of
Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event
Cretaceous–Paleogene_extinction_event
Termination of a taxon in a region which it previously inhabited
ecosystems changes when evaluation future extinction risks and losses. Extinction risk is essentially the probability that a species will disappear from a
Local_extinction
Neanderthal extinction Neanderthals became extinct around 40,000 years ago. Hypotheses on the causes of the extinction include violence, transmission of
Neanderthal_extinction
Extinction of large animals at the end of the last Ice Age
proponents, however, say this is due to the fast extinction process in North America and the low probability of animals with signs of butchery to be preserved
Late_Pleistocene_extinctions
Probability of existentially catastrophic outcomes in AI
researchers were asked to estimate the probability that future AI advancements could lead to human extinction or similarly severe and permanent disempowerment
P(doom)
Level of extinction from which a species cannot recover
PMID 17803676. Ludwig, Donald (1996). "Uncertainty and the Assessment of Extinction Probabilities". Ecological Applications. 6 (4): 1067–1076. doi:10.2307/2269591
Quasi-extinction
Third stage of the Carboniferous
(2006) found an early Serpukhovian extinction rate of 31% among all marine genera. Using an extinction probability procedure generated from the Paleobiology
Serpukhovian
Binary tree selected at random
In computer science and probability theory, a random binary tree is a binary tree selected at random from some probability distribution on binary trees
Random_binary_tree
Species of tortoise
ISBN 1-873943-06-7. Pérez, Irene et al. (2012). "Exurban sprawl increases the extinction probability of a threatened tortoise due to pet collections". Ecological Modelling
Greek_tortoise
Ecological measurement of extinction risk
assess extinction risks. A large quantity of field data is desirable for PVA; some conservatively estimate that for a precise extinction probability assessment
Population_viability_analysis
Scenario of civilization collapse or human extinction by nuclear weapons
the probability of complete human extinction by nuclear weapons at 1% within the century, the probability of 1 billion dead at 10% and the probability of
Nuclear_holocaust
Discussion of scenarios for a collapse of civilization due to climate change
civilizational collapse caused by climate change would soon lead to human extinction. Some researchers connect historical examples of societal collapse with
Climate change and civilizational collapse
Climate_change_and_civilizational_collapse
Hypothetical global-scale disaster risk
is a related term limited to events that could cause full-blown human extinction or permanently and drastically curtail humanity's existence or potential
Global_catastrophic_risk
Group of separated yet interacting ecological populations
During a time dt, each occupied patch can become unoccupied with an extinction probability edt. Additionally, 1 − N of the patches are unoccupied. Assuming
Metapopulation
Wildlife conservation park near Gqeberha in the Eastern Cape, South Africa
room," Nature 2008, p.860-863 Knight, M.H. "Evaluating herbivore extinction probabilities in Addo Elephant National Park, South Africa," African Zoology
Addo_Elephant_National_Park
Philosophical interpretation of the axioms of probability
word "probability" has been used in a variety of ways since it was first applied to the mathematical study of games of chance. Does probability measure
Probability_interpretations
Doomsday scenario on human births
confusing probability with certainty. However, the actual conclusion for the version used above is that there is a 95% chance of extinction within 9,120
Doomsday_argument
Wildlife conservation technique
Retrieved 12 March 2023. Saltz, David (1 January 1996). "Minimizing extinction probability due to demographic stochasticity in a reintroduced herd of Persian
Species_reintroduction
Smallest size a biological population can exist without facing extinction
assumptions in the model) for there to be, (for example) a 95% or 99% probability of survival 1,000 years into the future. Some models use generations
Minimum_viable_population
Collection of random variables
In probability theory and related fields a stochastic (/stəˈkæstɪk/) or random process is a mathematical object usually defined as a family of random
Stochastic_process
Species of bird
Carlos; Phalan, Ben; Silveira, Luís Fábio (2021). "Assessing the Extinction Probability of the Purple-winged Ground Dove, an Enigmatic Bamboo Specialist"
Purple-winged_ground_dove
Species of deer
28–37. Symposium proceedings, Sopron. Saltz, D. (1996) Minimizing extinction probability due to demographic stochasticity in a reintroduced herd of Persian
Persian_fallow_deer
American paleontologist
today—may enhance extinction probability." And in 2012 the authors of a paper published in Nature Communications concluded, "Mammoth extinction was not due
Paul_Schultz_Martin
Species of butterfly
survival: patch areas (affecting population size and therefore extinction probability), and distance between patches (influencing how easy it is to recolonise
Pseudophilotes_sinaicus
Concept in genetics
distribution, where the "success" probability (probability of a given allele being present) is 1/2 (i.e., the probability that there are k copies of A (or
Genetic_drift
IUCN conservation category
the probability of extinction in the wild is at least 50% within 10 years or three generations, whichever is the longer. The current extinction crisis
Critically_endangered
Hypothesized climate effects due to an asteroid or comet impact on Earth
and subsequently cascading collapse of food chains, leading to mass extinctions of the Earth's biosphere that wipe out many of the world's extant species
Impact_winter
Method of logical reasoning
supported not with deductive certainty, but at best with some degree of probability. Unlike deductive reasoning (such as mathematical induction), where the
Inductive_reasoning
Modelling of the Dynamics of Interacting Microbial Populations. Extinction Probabilities in a Stochastic Competition and Predation". Stephanopoulos began
Gregory_Stephanopoulos
human extinction)" long-term effect on humanity is 5%. A 2008 survey by the Future of Humanity Institute estimated a 5% probability of extinction by super-intelligence
Global_catastrophe_scenarios
Shorthand used in statistics
notation, these facts can be expressed as follows, where Pr() is the probability function, Χ is an observation from a normally distributed random variable
68–95–99.7_rule
Management practice for protecting types of environments
ability of larger habitats to support greater populations with lower extinction probabilities. Noss & Cooperrider support the "larger is better" claim and developed
Habitat_conservation
Hypothesis of barriers to forming interstellar civilizations
(currently just one: human). This probability threshold, which could lie in the past or following human extinction, might work as a barrier to the evolution
Great_Filter
Statistical effects of small numbers on a population
greater the probability that fluctuations will lead to extinction. One demographic consequence of a small population size is the probability that all offspring
Small_population_size
Zoo in the Carmel mountains, Israel
doi:10.1093/ornithapp/duab065 Saltz, David (1996-01-01). "Minimizing extinction probability due to demographic stochasticity in a reintroduced herd of Persian
Carmel_Hai-Bar_Nature_Reserve
Concept in probability
A probability box (or p-box) is a characterization of an uncertain number consisting of both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties that is often used
Probability_box
Species of bat
is possibly extinct. In 2017, a statistical model assessed the extinction probability of 23 mammal species that have been missing since the 19th century
Aru_flying_fox
Gradual loss of flux intensity through a medium
This is mainly due to the photoelectric effect which states that "the probability of photoelectric absorption is approximately proportional to (Z/E)3,
Attenuation
Mathematical method of risk analysis
Probability bounds analysis (PBA) is a collection of methods of uncertainty propagation for making qualitative and quantitative calculations in the face
Probability_bounds_analysis
Species Richness: A Quantitative Approach for Estimating Global Extinction Probabilities. Environmental Science and Technology. Schmidt, S., Södersten,
Industrial_ecology_programme
Author bibliography
PMID 17816611. Gilpin ME, —— (January 1981). "Immigration and Extinction Probabilities for Individual Species: Relation to Incidence Functions and Species
Jared_Diamond_bibliography
Subdivisions of geological time
are stretched out over several million years. For most species, extinction probabilities are "decoupled" in time from other species, as well as geological
Triassic land vertebrate faunachrons
Triassic_land_vertebrate_faunachrons
Hypothesized risk to human existence
intelligence (AGI) and artificial superintelligence (ASI) could lead to human extinction or an irreversible global catastrophe. One argument for the validity of
Existential risk from artificial intelligence
Existential_risk_from_artificial_intelligence
Topics referred to by the same term
instantiation of a property in an object Event (probability theory), a set of outcomes to which a probability is assigned Event (relativity), a point in space
Event
French mathematician
generalizing his least squares method. He contributed to the fields of probability and statistics, and to their application to finance, demography and social
Irénée-Jules_Bienaymé
Range of wavelengths from 650 to 1350 nanometre
scattering increases the distance travelled by photons within tissue, the probability of photon absorption also increases. The NIR window is primarily limited
Near-infrared window in biological tissue
Near-infrared_window_in_biological_tissue
Hypothetical model of extinction
same probability of extinction no matter where they originate in their taxonomy, and irrespective of traits that typically buffer against extinction. Raup
Field_of_bullets
Potentially hazardous near-Earth asteroid
period of concern in December 2004, initial observations indicated a probability of 2.7% that the asteroid would hit Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029.
99942_Apophis
Measure for hazard from asteroid or comet impacts on Earth
the extinction of the non-avian dinosaurs, has been estimated at 100 million (108) megatons. Were an equivalent impact predicted with a probability of
Torino_scale
magnitude, including counts of things, dimensionless quantities, and probabilities. Each number is given a name in the short scale, which is used in English-speaking
Orders_of_magnitude_(numbers)
Probabilistic problem-solving algorithms
interpretation of these branching processes. Extinction probabilities can be interpreted as absorption probabilities of some Markov process evolving in some
Mean-field_particle_methods
Aspect of learning procedure
sudden appearance of the (CR) after extinction occurs – and other related phenomena (see "Recovery from extinction" below). These phenomena can be explained
Classical_conditioning
Hypothesis of hidden life in space
explanations of the Fermi paradox, which contrasts the apparently high probability of extraterrestrial life with the lack of evidence for it. The hypothesis
Dark_forest_hypothesis
IUCN conservation category
in a very short period. E) Quantitative analysis showing the probability of extinction in the wild is at least 10% within 100 years. Some examples of
Vulnerable_species
Reproduction by closely related organisms
increased homozygosity increases the probability of fixing beneficial alleles and also slightly decreases the probability of fixing deleterious alleles in
Inbreeding
List of statements that appear to contradict themselves
countries each have nuclear weapons, the probability of a direct war between them greatly decreases, but the probability of minor or indirect conflicts between
List_of_paradoxes
P-boxes and probability bounds analysis have been used in many applications spanning many disciplines in engineering and environmental science, including:
Applications of p-boxes and probability bounds analysis
Applications_of_p-boxes_and_probability_bounds_analysis
Type of AI with wide-ranging abilities
experts and industry figures have stated that mitigating the risk of human extinction posed by AGI should be a global priority. Others find the development
Artificial general intelligence
Artificial_general_intelligence
Long-term future of planet Earth
Holocene extinction is being caused by technology, and the effects may last for up to five million years. In turn, technology may result in the extinction of
Future_of_Earth
2000 novel by Nancy Kress
Probability Moon is a 2000 science fiction novel by the American writer Nancy Kress. The novel concerns a xenological expedition to the planet World,
Probability_Moon
Possible large cosmic structure
continuous, one-dimensional probability distributions that can be used to compare a sample with a reference probability distribution (one-sample K–S
Hercules–Corona Borealis Great Wall
Hercules–Corona_Borealis_Great_Wall
Consequence affecting an organism's future behavior
criterion that determines if a stimulus is reinforcing is the change in probability of a behavior after administration of that potential reinforcer. Other
Reinforcement
Field of research
descending order of probability, starting with the outcome that the author considers more probable. "Bangs": the sudden extinction of earth's intelligent
Existential_risk_studies
Thought experiment to assess ability to detect evidence of a prior advanced civilization
Quaternary time period (~2.5 million years ago), there would be low probability of finding direct evidence of a previous civilization, such as technological
Silurian_hypothesis
Hypothesis about sapient life and the universe
the anthropic principle essentially just says that the conditional probability of finding yourself in a universe compatible with your existence is always
Anthropic_principle
Discrepancy of the lack of evidence for alien life despite its apparent likelihood
series of calculations on the probability of earthlike planets, the probability of life given an earth, the probability of humans given life, the likely
Fermi_paradox
Type of associative learning process for behavioral modification
may increase through reinforcement or decrease through punishment or extinction. Operant conditioning originated with Edward Thorndike, whose law of effect
Operant_conditioning
Phenomenon where a species is perpetuated by a daughter species
Pseudoextinction (or phyletic extinction) of a species occurs when all members of the species are extinct, but members of a daughter species remain alive
Pseudoextinction
Issue when estimating a probability
percentile extinction-time estimate in this version is 4560 years. Applying Bayesian probability in practice involves assessing a prior probability which is
Reference_class_problem
Type of mansion in Western India
Wada is a Marathi word for denoting a large mansion. The term, in all probability, is derived from the Sanskrit word Vata, meaning a plot or a piece of
Wada_(house)
Scientific projections regarding the far future
2015. Bostrom, Nick (March 2002). "Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards". Journal of Evolution and Technology. 9
Timeline_of_the_far_future
Type of fire
more extreme in size, severity, complexity of behavior and resistance to extinction. These fires are commonly referred as megafires and are at the extremes
Megafire
of particles occurs with positive probability, while if λ < λ c {\displaystyle \lambda <\lambda _{c}} their extinction is almost certain. Note that by reductio
Contact_process_(mathematics)
1993 book by Stephen Jay Gould
discursive manner, including evolution and its teaching, science biography, probabilities, and common sense.[citation needed] The title essay, "Eight Little Piggies"
Eight_Little_Piggies
2003 book by Martin Rees
existential risks confronting humanity, and estimates that the probability of extinction before 2100 CE is around 50 percent, based on the possibility
Our_Final_Hour
of Medieval Art at Gonville and Caius College, Cambridge 29 May 2008 Probability Marcus du Sautoy, Professor of Mathematics at the University of Oxford
List of In Our Time programmes
List_of_In_Our_Time_programmes
Marrying within a specific ethnic group, class, or social group
beliefs. The isolationist practices of endogamy may lead to a group's extinction, as genetic diseases may develop that can affect an increasing percentage
Endogamy
Operational Continuity Assurance Practice
test voltages to identify the different defects and their inception and extinction voltages. High voltage withstand tests are used in conjunction with partial
VLF_cable_testing
Potentially extinct species of bird
post-hurricane assessment by the IUCN Red List still entertains the probability of the species being extant, although likely having a maximum population
Bahama_nuthatch
Functional relationship between two quantities
obey the treasured paradigm of statistical completeness. Especially probability bounds, the suspected cause of typical bending and/or flattening phenomena
Power_law
First epoch of the Paleogene Period
The epoch is bracketed by two major events in Earth's history. The K–Pg extinction event, brought on by an asteroid impact (Chicxulub impact) and possibly
Paleocene
Supernova close enough to affect Earth's biosphere
which gives a probability of only around 5% for a supernova within 30 pc in the last 5 million years. They point out that the probability may be higher
Near-Earth_supernova
Change in the heritable traits of populations
approximately 96% of all marine species driven to extinction. The Holocene extinction event is an ongoing mass extinction associated with humanity's expansion across
Evolution
Internet community
use rationality to avoid cognitive biases. Common interests include probability, effective altruism, transhumanism, and mitigating existential risk from
Rationalist_community
occupancy probability transition [OPT] model). The OPT model is based on Harte et al.'s bisection scheme (although not on their probability rule) and
Occupancy frequency distribution
Occupancy_frequency_distribution
Aspect of ecosystems
component from the food chain could result in extinction or significant decreases in a species' probability of surviving. Many food chains and food webs
Food_chain
Philosophical view which prioritises the long-term future
expert opinion elicitation to estimate their importance. Ord offered probability estimates for a number of existential risks in The Precipice. The term
Longtermism
Probability of a given process occurring in a particle collision
In physics, the cross section is a measure related to the probability that a specific process will take place in a collision of two particles. For example
Cross_section_(physics)
Philosopher and writer (born 1973)
Callender. His thesis was titled Observational selection effects and probability. He held a teaching position at Yale University from 2000 to 2002, and
Nick_Bostrom
Practice of throwing a coin in the air to choose between two alternatives
Piñero, Jordi (17 February 2022). "Exact face-landing probabilities for bouncing objects: Edge probability in the coin toss and the three-sided die problem"
Coin_flipping
to consider more complex challenges like incorporating connectivity, probabilities and multiple zones. Along the way, Marxan's user community has also
Marxan
Extinct human species
Western and Central Asia during the Middle to Late Pleistocene. Neanderthal extinction occurred roughly 40,000 years ago with the immigration of modern humans
Neanderthal
Application of respondent and operant conditioning to change behavior
outweighs the risk associated with the behavior-change intervention." Extinction Extinction is a procedure of withholding/discontinuing reinforcement for a
Applied_behavior_analysis
Statistical method for molecular phylogenetics
the data likelihood to create the so-called posterior probability of trees, which is the probability that the tree is correct given the data, the prior and
Bayesian inference in phylogeny
Bayesian_inference_in_phylogeny
Collection of Stephen Jay Gould essays
to Gould's writing: evolution and its teaching, science biography, probabilities and common sense.[citation needed] The title essay, "The Flamingo's
The_Flamingo's_Smile
EXTINCTION PROBABILITY
EXTINCTION PROBABILITY
Surname or Lastname
English (Yorkshire)
English (Yorkshire) : in all probability from the Swale river in Yorkshire. (Reaney and Wilson list a 17th-century example, Swayles, with this origin.) Alternatively, it may be a metronymic from the Old Norse female personal name Svala.
Surname or Lastname
English
English : in all probability an English variant of Scottish Lachlan (see McLachlan), altered through folk etymology. However, Black cites one John sine terra (c. 1180–1214), suggesting that the surname could have arisen quite literally as a nickname for a man with no land.
Female
English
Modern English name derived from the Sanskrit word nirvana, NIRVANA means "disappearance, extinction (of the soul)."Â
EXTINCTION PROBABILITY
EXTINCTION PROBABILITY
Boy/Male
British, English
From the High Meadow
Biblical
lifting up; profiting; taking away slander
Girl/Female
Tamil
Goddess Lakshmi
Girl/Female
Hindu
Lightening, Ravi river
Boy/Male
Muslim
Acquirer. Earner.
Boy/Male
Hindu, Indian
Target
Girl/Female
Arabic, Muslim
Wise
Surname or Lastname
English
English : variant spelling of Witham.
Boy/Male
Finnish, Indian
Producing the New Thing; Lord Shiva
Girl/Female
Arabic, Muslim
Pretty; Beautiful
EXTINCTION PROBABILITY
EXTINCTION PROBABILITY
EXTINCTION PROBABILITY
EXTINCTION PROBABILITY
EXTINCTION PROBABILITY
n.
A coming to a close; cessation; extinction; termination; end.
n.
State of being extinguished or of ceasing to be; destruction; suppression; as, the extinction of life, of a family, of a quarrel, of claim.
n.
End; conclusion; termination; extinction.
n.
The act of tingeing or dyeing.
n.
The act of extracting, or drawing out; as, the extraction of a tooth, of a bone or an arrow from the body, of a stump from earth, of a passage from a book, of an essence or tincture.
n.
A building up; construction.
a.
Of mean extraction.
v. i.
Total privation or loss; extinction; cessation; as, the death of memory.
n.
The annihilation or extinction of a right or obligation.
n.
Extinction.
n.
Act of quenching or extingishing.
n.
The act of extinguishing or making extinct; a putting an end to; the act of putting out or destroying light, fire, life, activity, influence, etc.
n.
Good extraction; dignity of birth.
n.
Extraction; descent.
n.
The act of obliterating, or the state of being obliterated; extinction.
n.
Act of wasting away; a consuming; extinction.
n.
Lineage; extraction; descent; sometimes, high birth; noble extraction.
n.
Extraction.
n.
A method or practice of the administration of the sacrament by dipping the bread or wafer in the wine and administering both together.
n.
Descent; pedigree; extraction.